VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.82 1.09 8.21 7.49 24 2.07 1.99 9.38 9.24 36 2.83 3.47 10.93 11.13 48 2.70 3.39 12.37 12.98 60 3.35 4.00 14.89 15.17 72 5.53 5.31 17.18 17.53 84 6.25 7.46 21.29 20.77 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.07 -2.98 8.67 8.99 24 -2.72 -2.88 9.95 10.64 36 -2.28 -2.43 11.90 12.58 48 -2.85 -2.54 15.73 15.72 60 -2.46 -2.91 19.18 20.29 72 -0.70 -1.47 23.61 24.17 84 -0.03 -0.20 29.66 29.08 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.28 -3.60 11.41 11.42 24 -3.86 -3.97 14.61 15.12 36 -3.25 -3.41 18.45 19.74 48 -4.42 -3.53 24.58 23.89 60 -3.81 -4.87 30.20 31.11 72 -2.40 -3.30 37.02 36.80 84 -2.87 -1.66 44.69 44.36 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.13 -0.16 1.20 1.29 24 -0.20 -0.31 1.31 1.47 36 -0.30 -0.38 1.50 1.57 48 -0.35 -0.44 1.66 1.76 60 -0.42 -0.50 1.81 1.93 72 -0.42 -0.53 2.07 2.13 84 -0.47 -0.54 2.25 2.35 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.02 -0.09 0.77 0.76 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.84 0.90 36 -0.01 -0.07 0.97 1.05 48 -0.05 -0.04 1.12 1.21 60 0.00 -0.10 1.30 1.35 72 -0.05 -0.06 1.49 1.52 84 -0.03 -0.06 1.70 1.71 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.34 0.42 0.95 0.96 24 0.25 0.30 1.09 1.14 36 0.21 0.26 1.28 1.29 48 0.17 0.22 1.47 1.48 60 0.16 0.19 1.66 1.64 72 0.13 0.18 1.81 1.82 84 0.06 0.14 1.99 1.93 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.28 -0.59 3.75 3.69 24 -0.26 -0.49 3.99 4.10 36 -0.23 -0.48 4.30 4.44 48 -0.24 -0.44 4.70 4.88 60 -0.30 -0.56 5.07 5.31 72 -0.33 -0.60 5.55 5.67 84 -0.41 -0.76 6.00 6.25 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.46 -0.43 4.09 3.78 24 -0.56 -0.54 4.53 4.39 36 -0.60 -0.60 5.14 5.00 48 -0.64 -0.65 5.73 5.72 60 -0.71 -0.74 6.39 6.45 72 -0.81 -0.85 7.20 7.18 84 -0.83 -0.96 7.91 7.87 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.72 -0.65 5.39 5.25 24 -0.80 -0.87 6.33 6.24 36 -0.99 -0.91 7.57 7.33 48 -1.16 -1.16 8.93 8.59 60 -1.32 -1.51 9.98 9.94 72 -1.49 -1.44 11.24 11.03 84 -1.64 -1.64 12.61 12.12