VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.21 0.51 9.08 7.98 24 0.78 1.57 10.65 11.34 36 1.84 2.15 13.22 13.33 48 1.11 1.30 15.26 16.07 60 1.05 1.75 17.90 18.53 72 2.03 3.14 21.38 20.92 84 3.03 3.77 23.73 25.97 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.55 -3.97 10.39 10.15 24 -4.65 -4.32 12.30 12.98 36 -4.19 -4.37 15.77 15.52 48 -5.46 -5.39 18.77 20.41 60 -5.90 -5.99 23.56 23.59 72 -5.97 -4.61 28.84 28.13 84 -4.54 -4.79 32.83 36.32 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -5.41 -3.86 12.72 12.41 24 -6.01 -3.48 16.68 17.10 36 -4.01 -3.34 22.41 20.98 48 -6.04 -3.93 26.64 27.67 60 -5.57 -4.76 32.81 32.22 72 -6.25 -3.54 39.76 39.06 84 -4.81 -4.61 47.32 51.67 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.30 -0.31 1.42 1.46 24 -0.40 -0.52 1.60 1.74 36 -0.50 -0.59 1.82 1.90 48 -0.53 -0.71 1.94 2.10 60 -0.59 -0.76 2.17 2.34 72 -0.60 -0.75 2.43 2.60 84 -0.65 -0.77 2.77 2.97 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.01 -0.04 0.81 0.81 24 -0.04 -0.01 0.93 0.98 36 -0.01 -0.04 1.15 1.14 48 -0.06 0.00 1.30 1.34 60 -0.03 -0.05 1.50 1.49 72 -0.06 -0.03 1.72 1.73 84 -0.02 -0.04 1.96 2.12 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.25 0.35 0.98 0.99 24 0.20 0.31 1.16 1.20 36 0.26 0.34 1.35 1.39 48 0.27 0.31 1.53 1.60 60 0.23 0.30 1.78 1.77 72 0.22 0.25 1.95 1.99 84 0.17 0.24 2.14 2.17 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.09 -0.38 3.98 3.94 24 -0.05 -0.19 4.26 4.52 36 0.06 -0.14 4.71 4.83 48 0.04 -0.07 5.07 5.38 60 0.10 -0.24 5.78 5.94 72 0.03 -0.31 6.24 6.83 84 0.00 -0.35 6.83 7.36 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.33 -0.42 4.01 3.94 24 -0.34 -0.35 4.66 4.78 36 -0.25 -0.36 5.52 5.34 48 -0.26 -0.34 6.07 6.24 60 -0.29 -0.36 6.95 6.96 72 -0.24 -0.40 7.85 7.89 84 -0.31 -0.33 8.59 8.82 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.92 -0.81 5.61 5.29 24 -1.19 -0.98 6.52 6.69 36 -1.30 -1.01 7.87 7.51 48 -1.51 -1.37 8.73 8.89 60 -1.53 -1.57 10.11 10.10 72 -1.65 -1.56 11.43 11.51 84 -1.67 -1.80 12.89 13.19