VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.55 -0.55 8.20 7.63 24 -1.43 -1.02 9.63 9.93 36 -0.57 -1.15 11.54 11.43 48 -1.02 -0.61 13.79 14.68 60 1.17 -1.18 17.27 17.63 72 1.07 3.13 20.87 21.95 84 4.38 2.64 26.39 25.47 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.96 -4.36 9.68 9.71 24 -6.41 -5.69 12.63 13.01 36 -5.69 -6.27 16.27 16.26 48 -6.20 -5.72 20.32 21.08 60 -3.53 -6.54 26.45 25.17 72 -4.02 -1.73 30.09 31.82 84 -0.21 -2.88 38.92 37.02 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.03 -2.91 11.37 10.89 24 -5.02 -3.22 15.23 15.56 36 -2.63 -3.20 20.97 20.49 48 -3.58 -2.21 27.35 27.42 60 -0.68 -3.00 36.63 33.27 72 -2.54 1.41 40.02 43.29 84 2.27 -1.21 51.18 47.72 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.21 -0.25 1.43 1.45 24 -0.32 -0.37 1.62 1.64 36 -0.40 -0.47 1.83 1.86 48 -0.48 -0.53 2.02 2.13 60 -0.50 -0.54 2.31 2.29 72 -0.49 -0.50 2.47 2.60 84 -0.44 -0.51 2.86 2.83 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.81 24 0.02 0.05 0.93 1.01 36 0.11 0.06 1.20 1.21 48 0.13 0.12 1.44 1.45 60 0.16 0.10 1.74 1.69 72 0.10 0.08 1.88 1.96 84 0.09 0.01 2.17 2.18 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.38 0.39 1.05 1.03 24 0.36 0.39 1.17 1.27 36 0.38 0.38 1.45 1.44 48 0.35 0.37 1.69 1.68 60 0.30 0.39 1.90 1.89 72 0.28 0.38 2.11 2.12 84 0.31 0.39 2.38 2.34 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.33 -0.33 3.75 3.66 24 -0.15 -0.23 4.15 4.13 36 -0.06 -0.10 4.56 4.60 48 -0.07 -0.08 4.97 5.14 60 -0.21 -0.10 5.60 5.76 72 -0.17 -0.31 5.95 6.31 84 -0.38 -0.42 6.82 6.77 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.56 -0.44 3.92 3.93 24 -0.45 -0.48 4.55 4.73 36 -0.44 -0.47 5.58 5.48 48 -0.47 -0.62 6.45 6.34 60 -0.60 -0.67 7.53 7.23 72 -0.65 -0.88 8.13 8.57 84 -0.79 -1.05 9.53 9.40 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.92 -0.78 5.05 4.87 24 -1.10 -0.96 6.03 6.04 36 -1.16 -1.05 7.36 7.23 48 -1.56 -1.18 8.81 8.41 60 -1.48 -1.28 10.23 9.95 72 -1.69 -1.37 11.08 11.50 84 -1.72 -1.50 13.07 12.31