VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.53 0.73 7.87 8.18 24 0.83 0.65 9.55 10.13 36 1.18 0.27 11.79 12.08 48 0.00 0.28 14.07 15.52 60 0.81 -0.28 18.64 18.13 72 0.80 1.43 22.56 23.77 84 3.17 1.05 28.64 26.88 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.99 -2.85 9.30 9.60 24 -3.55 -3.72 12.26 12.75 36 -3.21 -4.91 16.18 16.51 48 -4.68 -4.96 20.42 21.73 60 -3.40 -5.38 26.27 26.54 72 -3.80 -2.93 32.63 33.26 84 -1.26 -3.97 40.61 39.48 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.14 -2.27 11.81 11.42 24 -1.97 -1.14 16.39 16.11 36 -0.08 -1.92 21.61 21.18 48 -1.65 -1.17 26.84 28.21 60 -0.82 -1.18 35.35 33.49 72 -0.60 0.39 40.02 41.83 84 0.53 0.43 50.28 47.22 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.15 -0.23 1.45 1.42 24 -0.30 -0.37 1.59 1.60 36 -0.36 -0.43 1.72 1.74 48 -0.35 -0.52 1.91 1.98 60 -0.36 -0.49 2.20 2.19 72 -0.31 -0.48 2.46 2.51 84 -0.32 -0.44 2.88 2.72 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.03 0.03 0.82 0.83 24 0.06 0.09 1.00 1.04 36 0.13 0.08 1.29 1.26 48 0.13 0.14 1.54 1.56 60 0.18 0.16 1.95 1.80 72 0.16 0.20 2.08 2.12 84 0.13 0.14 2.37 2.29 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.31 0.33 1.17 1.15 24 0.35 0.34 1.39 1.40 36 0.35 0.37 1.66 1.61 48 0.31 0.33 1.87 1.92 60 0.23 0.33 2.21 2.17 72 0.22 0.19 2.35 2.47 84 0.06 0.28 2.75 2.75 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.27 -0.44 3.88 3.89 24 -0.13 -0.25 4.19 4.28 36 -0.04 -0.15 4.65 4.67 48 -0.03 -0.14 5.12 5.31 60 -0.08 -0.15 5.97 5.88 72 -0.12 -0.23 6.65 6.86 84 -0.34 -0.23 7.66 7.62 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.57 -0.45 4.07 4.09 24 -0.55 -0.46 4.74 4.89 36 -0.47 -0.46 5.64 5.72 48 -0.56 -0.57 6.62 7.08 60 -0.65 -0.57 8.01 8.08 72 -0.56 -0.63 8.96 9.15 84 -0.72 -0.54 10.17 10.13 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.86 -0.87 5.61 5.18 24 -0.94 -0.98 6.45 6.44 36 -1.14 -1.04 7.63 7.44 48 -1.28 -1.23 8.74 9.12 60 -1.47 -1.19 10.33 10.24 72 -1.53 -1.49 11.42 11.98 84 -1.66 -1.42 13.42 12.82