VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.92 0.16 7.61 8.04 24 -0.21 0.29 9.23 10.06 36 0.32 -0.32 12.43 12.45 48 -0.13 0.87 15.85 16.73 60 1.73 1.18 21.82 20.84 72 2.05 3.95 24.83 27.87 84 4.64 4.25 30.51 30.99 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.71 -3.34 9.93 10.16 24 -3.97 -3.43 12.89 13.08 36 -3.69 -5.09 18.65 17.83 48 -4.68 -4.29 24.86 24.77 60 -2.50 -4.83 34.48 31.18 72 -3.27 -1.22 41.27 42.86 84 -0.53 -1.90 50.12 49.53 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.03 -3.06 12.53 12.17 24 -3.18 -3.06 17.77 17.93 36 -2.50 -4.89 25.76 24.56 48 -4.52 -4.62 34.78 34.48 60 -3.88 -6.39 47.10 43.89 72 -5.72 -4.26 56.41 55.16 84 -5.28 -7.76 65.16 65.60 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.14 -0.19 1.56 1.56 24 -0.24 -0.28 1.70 1.76 36 -0.30 -0.46 1.97 1.96 48 -0.40 -0.51 2.18 2.28 60 -0.38 -0.57 2.65 2.51 72 -0.43 -0.49 2.90 3.02 84 -0.34 -0.55 3.28 3.38 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.03 -0.03 0.90 0.92 24 0.00 -0.01 1.10 1.14 36 0.03 -0.05 1.42 1.38 48 -0.02 -0.08 1.73 1.82 60 -0.02 -0.07 2.28 2.08 72 -0.06 -0.06 2.57 2.59 84 -0.08 -0.16 2.98 2.97 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.42 0.38 1.08 1.05 24 0.41 0.26 1.26 1.21 36 0.26 0.27 1.49 1.44 48 0.22 0.09 1.77 1.71 60 0.08 0.05 2.06 1.99 72 0.05 -0.09 2.30 2.39 84 -0.10 -0.12 2.61 2.69 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.36 -0.51 3.86 3.96 24 -0.27 -0.43 4.16 4.23 36 -0.29 -0.45 4.83 4.70 48 -0.33 -0.48 5.41 5.34 60 -0.35 -0.62 6.37 6.00 72 -0.39 -0.68 6.97 7.17 84 -0.56 -0.63 7.93 7.86 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.53 -0.49 4.28 4.21 24 -0.46 -0.48 4.91 5.12 36 -0.64 -0.54 6.25 6.03 48 -0.64 -0.66 7.52 7.48 60 -0.93 -0.80 9.37 8.75 72 -0.90 -0.95 10.00 10.68 84 -1.15 -1.02 11.85 11.24 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.93 -0.66 5.49 5.26 24 -1.09 -1.02 6.74 6.59 36 -1.42 -1.08 8.46 7.92 48 -1.62 -1.38 10.27 9.92 60 -1.99 -1.75 12.45 11.11 72 -2.07 -1.92 13.65 13.71 84 -2.45 -1.86 16.22 14.86