VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.64 1.07 8.26 8.34 24 1.32 1.20 9.91 10.66 36 1.93 1.31 12.48 12.63 48 0.69 1.18 14.94 15.45 60 2.21 1.13 18.35 19.01 72 1.89 4.28 22.08 22.56 84 4.29 3.83 25.98 26.33 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.28 -3.35 9.66 9.75 24 -3.09 -4.18 11.67 13.25 36 -2.67 -4.59 15.90 16.24 48 -4.29 -4.56 19.56 21.28 60 -2.20 -5.15 24.95 25.59 72 -3.20 -1.58 29.90 30.00 84 -0.30 -2.47 35.71 35.01 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.49 -2.70 11.67 11.50 24 -1.37 -2.71 15.60 16.93 36 -0.59 -2.34 22.54 20.69 48 -2.21 -3.36 27.93 29.30 60 -0.25 -3.34 34.18 34.54 72 -0.86 0.68 41.53 41.23 84 2.75 0.69 48.44 48.84 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.12 -0.25 1.36 1.44 24 -0.20 -0.30 1.48 1.62 36 -0.21 -0.37 1.72 1.80 48 -0.24 -0.37 1.92 2.09 60 -0.28 -0.44 2.20 2.28 72 -0.34 -0.42 2.42 2.44 84 -0.29 -0.43 2.65 2.72 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.03 -0.06 0.86 0.86 24 0.02 -0.05 1.04 1.07 36 0.05 -0.02 1.32 1.25 48 0.04 0.03 1.49 1.57 60 0.11 0.00 1.76 1.75 72 0.05 0.06 1.91 1.99 84 0.15 0.00 2.26 2.17 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.43 0.39 1.06 1.05 24 0.44 0.44 1.26 1.27 36 0.42 0.41 1.49 1.45 48 0.39 0.28 1.64 1.64 60 0.32 0.37 1.83 1.83 72 0.39 0.36 1.98 2.06 84 0.34 0.34 2.30 2.16 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.39 -0.53 3.81 3.71 24 -0.31 -0.51 4.10 4.24 36 -0.24 -0.57 4.62 4.65 48 -0.37 -0.53 5.24 5.29 60 -0.31 -0.56 5.77 5.99 72 -0.36 -0.51 6.38 6.62 84 -0.39 -0.69 7.06 7.13 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.68 -0.67 4.16 4.13 24 -0.58 -0.70 4.87 4.92 36 -0.69 -0.66 5.78 5.68 48 -0.77 -0.81 6.73 6.70 60 -0.89 -0.85 7.79 7.60 72 -0.85 -0.88 8.26 8.45 84 -0.75 -0.91 9.43 9.20 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.77 -0.74 5.21 4.97 24 -1.05 -1.13 6.35 6.30 36 -1.21 -1.22 7.90 7.32 48 -1.50 -1.45 8.95 8.97 60 -1.63 -1.65 10.36 10.06 72 -1.71 -1.62 11.18 11.54 84 -1.67 -1.61 12.87 12.24