VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.24 0.48 7.39 7.11 24 0.27 0.73 8.34 9.10 36 0.86 0.17 10.79 11.05 48 -0.54 -0.10 12.84 13.29 60 0.16 0.11 15.45 15.89 72 0.40 1.43 18.60 20.36 84 1.38 1.70 23.71 23.05 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.29 -4.07 8.85 9.14 24 -4.17 -4.34 10.48 11.67 36 -3.89 -5.62 14.09 14.58 48 -5.93 -6.08 17.92 19.02 60 -4.62 -6.73 22.92 23.54 72 -5.02 -4.67 28.46 29.13 84 -3.95 -5.18 35.22 34.79 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.99 -2.20 10.38 10.22 24 -1.15 -1.64 13.98 15.14 36 0.40 -2.05 20.18 18.80 48 -0.73 -1.05 25.26 26.08 60 1.46 -1.25 33.31 32.27 72 0.25 1.13 40.14 40.14 84 1.82 -0.24 49.08 47.05 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.13 -0.24 1.29 1.37 24 -0.23 -0.31 1.48 1.58 36 -0.26 -0.35 1.71 1.72 48 -0.27 -0.38 1.87 1.96 60 -0.23 -0.35 2.02 2.19 72 -0.20 -0.32 2.30 2.34 84 -0.09 -0.33 2.54 2.51 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.02 -0.03 0.77 0.75 24 0.01 -0.02 0.91 0.92 36 0.05 -0.02 1.11 1.06 48 0.06 0.03 1.31 1.29 60 0.09 0.01 1.53 1.50 72 0.05 0.01 1.74 1.69 84 0.06 -0.04 2.07 1.92 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.52 0.47 0.98 0.94 24 0.55 0.51 1.10 1.15 36 0.60 0.54 1.30 1.29 48 0.60 0.59 1.48 1.50 60 0.63 0.59 1.66 1.68 72 0.63 0.62 1.83 1.85 84 0.67 0.55 2.06 1.98 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.36 -0.59 3.58 3.59 24 -0.29 -0.45 3.82 3.95 36 -0.27 -0.44 4.26 4.25 48 -0.28 -0.47 4.71 4.74 60 -0.27 -0.57 5.16 5.26 72 -0.36 -0.56 5.56 5.76 84 -0.46 -0.62 6.28 6.28 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.41 -0.56 3.68 3.69 24 -0.34 -0.63 4.05 4.27 36 -0.41 -0.60 4.93 4.88 48 -0.50 -0.68 5.50 5.88 60 -0.56 -0.70 6.75 6.65 72 -0.72 -0.86 7.23 7.61 84 -0.81 -0.84 8.51 8.37 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.78 -0.55 4.60 4.59 24 -1.03 -0.79 5.46 5.95 36 -1.29 -0.93 6.97 6.96 48 -1.48 -1.17 8.24 8.54 60 -1.53 -1.46 9.82 9.58 72 -1.67 -1.44 11.06 11.23 84 -1.65 -1.42 12.61 12.46