VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.40 0.47 7.56 7.30 24 0.30 0.51 9.40 9.23 36 1.24 0.70 11.93 10.85 48 1.21 1.51 14.00 14.43 60 2.61 1.91 16.79 16.23 72 4.14 4.17 19.19 20.13 84 4.79 6.49 23.49 23.94 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.75 -4.62 9.23 9.68 24 -4.77 -5.33 11.60 11.72 36 -4.09 -6.30 14.59 14.39 48 -4.91 -5.09 17.62 18.05 60 -2.99 -5.83 21.63 21.85 72 -2.81 -2.91 25.85 26.51 84 -1.27 -2.26 32.98 31.40 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.64 -2.31 11.24 11.18 24 -1.57 -1.75 14.71 14.60 36 0.78 -2.45 20.05 18.40 48 -0.45 -0.83 24.88 23.43 60 2.04 -0.70 31.92 30.15 72 0.65 1.12 38.65 37.17 84 1.68 0.31 49.66 45.23 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.02 -0.27 1.26 1.28 24 -0.09 -0.28 1.40 1.52 36 -0.06 -0.36 1.58 1.65 48 -0.10 -0.32 1.74 1.81 60 -0.05 -0.38 1.97 1.98 72 -0.05 -0.26 2.15 2.24 84 0.00 -0.32 2.52 2.56 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.04 0.00 0.76 0.80 24 0.01 0.01 0.90 0.96 36 0.04 0.01 1.08 1.08 48 0.02 0.01 1.23 1.32 60 0.02 -0.01 1.46 1.51 72 0.01 0.00 1.72 1.77 84 -0.01 -0.08 1.99 1.94 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.50 0.55 1.04 1.07 24 0.52 0.54 1.22 1.18 36 0.51 0.59 1.44 1.37 48 0.46 0.51 1.55 1.51 60 0.43 0.50 1.67 1.68 72 0.45 0.46 1.91 1.86 84 0.38 0.40 2.08 2.01 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.33 -0.48 3.70 3.66 24 -0.34 -0.34 3.99 4.11 36 -0.29 -0.36 4.61 4.44 48 -0.30 -0.40 4.88 4.99 60 -0.35 -0.33 5.36 5.31 72 -0.34 -0.39 5.78 5.96 84 -0.42 -0.50 6.63 6.40 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.56 -0.51 3.80 3.76 24 -0.57 -0.47 4.31 4.40 36 -0.66 -0.50 5.06 4.94 48 -0.71 -0.65 5.66 5.84 60 -0.86 -0.76 6.50 6.32 72 -0.85 -0.93 7.22 7.14 84 -1.09 -0.97 8.18 7.92 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.49 -0.47 4.89 4.85 24 -0.56 -0.71 5.83 5.90 36 -0.76 -0.76 7.13 7.00 48 -0.95 -0.93 8.19 8.33 60 -1.15 -1.13 9.55 9.22 72 -1.31 -1.36 10.89 10.90 84 -1.49 -1.31 12.52 12.15