VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.72 0.10 6.57 6.03 24 0.85 0.71 7.97 7.62 36 1.20 1.61 9.98 9.58 48 1.79 3.07 11.44 12.43 60 3.72 2.97 14.55 14.39 72 4.33 5.45 16.84 18.00 84 5.70 5.85 19.99 21.16 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.70 -4.55 8.41 8.68 24 -2.74 -4.19 9.40 10.15 36 -2.59 -4.26 12.20 12.57 48 -2.53 -2.88 14.70 15.58 60 -0.92 -3.66 18.56 18.60 72 -1.06 -1.58 22.04 22.17 84 0.35 -1.59 26.36 27.38 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.80 -2.86 10.45 10.02 24 -0.57 -1.94 12.98 13.45 36 0.62 -2.45 17.22 18.12 48 -0.31 -1.01 22.37 23.10 60 0.62 -3.02 28.34 28.35 72 -0.11 -2.00 33.93 35.67 84 0.38 -2.09 41.28 42.66 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.12 -0.13 1.23 1.14 24 0.10 -0.11 1.32 1.33 36 0.08 -0.19 1.48 1.46 48 0.00 -0.20 1.60 1.68 60 -0.04 -0.25 1.82 1.82 72 -0.08 -0.36 2.01 2.04 84 -0.12 -0.35 2.32 2.31 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.07 -0.04 0.76 0.77 24 0.02 -0.02 0.85 0.89 36 0.07 -0.07 1.01 1.03 48 0.01 -0.04 1.17 1.19 60 0.02 -0.08 1.30 1.34 72 -0.02 -0.10 1.46 1.58 84 -0.01 -0.12 1.64 1.75 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.51 0.51 0.97 0.97 24 0.45 0.45 1.10 1.09 36 0.44 0.41 1.29 1.25 48 0.38 0.37 1.41 1.42 60 0.32 0.29 1.57 1.54 72 0.27 0.27 1.72 1.75 84 0.21 0.20 1.89 1.89 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.43 -0.41 3.42 3.44 24 -0.42 -0.43 3.72 3.92 36 -0.36 -0.38 4.05 4.31 48 -0.38 -0.46 4.52 4.77 60 -0.42 -0.47 5.02 5.19 72 -0.39 -0.51 5.44 5.90 84 -0.53 -0.56 6.19 6.48 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.47 -0.48 3.58 3.57 24 -0.48 -0.54 3.99 4.06 36 -0.57 -0.64 4.58 4.72 48 -0.71 -0.75 5.13 5.36 60 -0.86 -0.76 5.86 5.90 72 -1.00 -0.88 6.60 6.65 84 -1.04 -1.02 7.77 7.57 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.47 -0.52 5.00 4.79 24 -0.55 -0.67 5.91 6.01 36 -0.87 -0.84 7.36 7.10 48 -1.03 -1.02 8.37 8.41 60 -1.26 -1.13 9.87 9.32 72 -1.42 -1.23 10.85 11.10 84 -1.53 -1.41 12.65 12.69