VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.50 -0.47 6.69 6.39 24 0.32 0.08 7.68 7.48 36 0.37 0.59 8.68 8.67 48 0.89 1.00 10.41 10.74 60 1.49 0.93 12.25 12.31 72 1.50 1.71 13.29 14.43 84 1.60 1.80 15.46 15.79 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.32 -5.01 8.52 9.30 24 -3.44 -4.65 9.09 10.41 36 -2.98 -4.71 10.90 11.55 48 -3.41 -3.76 12.55 12.97 60 -2.26 -4.80 14.82 14.69 72 -3.46 -3.33 16.22 17.78 84 -2.60 -4.26 20.55 19.49 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.55 -3.36 10.76 10.54 24 -2.20 -3.51 12.96 13.52 36 -1.86 -4.63 16.88 16.45 48 -3.79 -4.02 20.31 19.84 60 -2.58 -6.72 24.24 23.42 72 -5.67 -5.74 27.21 29.00 84 -5.59 -8.06 34.13 31.90 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.25 -0.05 1.25 1.15 24 0.23 0.08 1.38 1.40 36 0.32 0.07 1.60 1.53 48 0.27 0.18 1.71 1.69 60 0.35 0.12 1.88 1.84 72 0.30 0.17 2.00 1.99 84 0.33 0.13 2.18 2.09 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.09 0.01 0.75 0.78 24 0.04 0.02 0.83 0.87 36 0.04 -0.03 0.94 0.95 48 -0.01 -0.02 1.03 1.04 60 0.01 -0.08 1.15 1.14 72 -0.06 -0.05 1.21 1.26 84 -0.06 -0.12 1.35 1.35 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.49 0.52 1.00 0.97 24 0.36 0.40 1.06 1.07 36 0.29 0.33 1.20 1.19 48 0.22 0.24 1.32 1.32 60 0.18 0.17 1.45 1.43 72 0.13 0.15 1.58 1.59 84 0.07 0.09 1.74 1.69 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.71 -0.76 3.54 3.54 24 -0.56 -0.68 3.76 3.94 36 -0.51 -0.64 4.12 4.34 48 -0.46 -0.59 4.50 4.76 60 -0.41 -0.57 4.81 5.18 72 -0.37 -0.47 5.13 5.62 84 -0.36 -0.53 5.48 5.93 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.46 -0.28 3.73 3.62 24 -0.47 -0.32 4.05 4.05 36 -0.51 -0.35 4.56 4.51 48 -0.46 -0.34 4.92 4.99 60 -0.47 -0.37 5.39 5.27 72 -0.64 -0.34 5.69 5.87 84 -0.52 -0.55 6.43 6.24 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.40 -0.53 5.15 4.87 24 -0.32 -0.76 5.97 5.96 36 -0.55 -0.70 7.14 6.86 48 -0.60 -0.96 8.00 8.14 60 -0.82 -1.05 8.99 8.90 72 -0.78 -1.05 10.07 10.13 84 -0.85 -1.19 11.46 10.94