VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.65 0.31 6.42 6.13 24 1.81 1.21 7.37 7.39 36 1.64 2.40 8.50 8.51 48 2.33 2.08 9.81 10.13 60 2.39 2.19 11.49 11.30 72 3.10 3.15 13.19 13.39 84 2.87 3.84 14.80 15.62 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.31 -3.77 8.38 8.60 24 -2.63 -3.51 8.72 10.04 36 -2.46 -2.82 10.68 11.09 48 -2.09 -2.61 11.87 12.82 60 -1.61 -2.78 14.57 14.83 72 -1.73 -1.55 17.27 18.06 84 -1.67 -1.99 20.38 20.11 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.14 -4.06 10.66 10.53 24 -3.48 -4.51 12.74 13.26 36 -3.91 -4.79 15.70 15.74 48 -4.47 -6.00 18.32 19.65 60 -5.24 -7.34 23.47 23.23 72 -6.35 -7.85 27.98 28.59 84 -8.12 -9.14 33.52 32.65 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.14 0.01 1.26 1.19 24 0.13 0.12 1.38 1.42 36 0.22 0.09 1.57 1.48 48 0.19 0.16 1.63 1.65 60 0.21 0.17 1.78 1.79 72 0.22 0.16 1.88 1.97 84 0.17 0.15 2.11 2.10 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.04 -0.06 0.76 0.76 24 -0.02 -0.06 0.83 0.84 36 0.00 -0.06 0.92 0.94 48 -0.02 -0.09 0.98 1.04 60 -0.01 -0.13 1.13 1.12 72 -0.08 -0.15 1.21 1.26 84 -0.09 -0.18 1.34 1.38 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.38 0.36 0.88 0.86 24 0.16 0.22 0.94 0.96 36 0.06 0.08 1.12 1.08 48 -0.07 -0.05 1.22 1.22 60 -0.16 -0.18 1.39 1.35 72 -0.27 -0.29 1.50 1.51 84 -0.39 -0.38 1.69 1.65 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.70 -0.69 3.53 3.63 24 -0.55 -0.68 3.82 3.96 36 -0.47 -0.62 4.16 4.25 48 -0.45 -0.53 4.35 4.59 60 -0.37 -0.54 4.76 4.96 72 -0.46 -0.56 4.99 5.29 84 -0.35 -0.58 5.37 5.65 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.31 -0.26 3.63 3.58 24 -0.39 -0.28 3.96 4.06 36 -0.31 -0.33 4.48 4.37 48 -0.31 -0.39 4.92 4.96 60 -0.30 -0.43 5.44 5.29 72 -0.39 -0.37 5.86 5.91 84 -0.33 -0.35 6.52 6.40 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.56 -0.62 4.99 4.73 24 -0.47 -0.71 5.97 5.74 36 -0.74 -0.75 6.79 6.58 48 -0.72 -0.88 7.55 7.53 60 -0.84 -0.84 8.68 8.36 72 -0.89 -0.93 9.82 9.68 84 -0.99 -0.96 10.66 10.49