VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.89 1.90 7.70 7.67 24 3.14 4.03 9.42 10.08 36 4.40 5.53 11.16 12.15 48 5.55 6.21 13.34 14.20 60 5.58 6.17 15.48 15.40 72 6.32 7.54 18.00 18.79 84 6.88 8.05 20.95 21.28 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.02 -2.03 8.89 8.41 24 -0.79 -0.55 10.11 10.24 36 0.09 0.04 12.52 11.95 48 0.54 0.71 14.64 14.57 60 0.72 -0.10 17.87 17.52 72 0.53 1.35 21.64 21.10 84 0.91 0.55 25.74 25.02 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.96 -0.59 11.45 10.72 24 -0.44 0.60 14.08 15.09 36 1.13 0.78 18.71 18.81 48 1.06 1.86 22.70 23.33 60 1.39 -0.73 29.41 27.90 72 0.82 1.78 35.24 35.02 84 0.44 -0.66 40.56 41.97 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.21 -0.06 1.17 1.23 24 0.15 -0.07 1.30 1.42 36 0.10 -0.12 1.49 1.56 48 0.06 -0.12 1.62 1.73 60 0.05 -0.18 1.79 1.87 72 -0.02 -0.18 1.97 2.05 84 -0.06 -0.28 2.06 2.23 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.01 0.00 0.79 0.78 24 -0.01 0.00 0.89 0.92 36 0.00 0.00 1.06 1.02 48 -0.02 0.00 1.17 1.16 60 0.02 -0.01 1.35 1.31 72 -0.02 -0.03 1.49 1.49 84 -0.03 -0.10 1.65 1.66 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.40 0.41 0.99 1.01 24 0.29 0.30 1.15 1.16 36 0.20 0.20 1.36 1.31 48 0.15 0.15 1.52 1.49 60 0.13 0.08 1.66 1.66 72 0.06 0.10 1.84 1.82 84 0.07 0.03 1.97 2.00 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.58 -0.53 3.64 3.97 24 -0.43 -0.52 3.99 4.33 36 -0.43 -0.50 4.29 4.77 48 -0.40 -0.47 4.71 5.22 60 -0.46 -0.51 5.14 5.60 72 -0.48 -0.53 5.57 6.18 84 -0.45 -0.56 6.20 6.67 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.27 -0.27 4.10 3.97 24 -0.32 -0.27 4.50 4.52 36 -0.32 -0.24 5.18 5.03 48 -0.32 -0.34 5.58 5.63 60 -0.31 -0.26 6.21 6.22 72 -0.34 -0.31 6.91 7.09 84 -0.35 -0.40 7.83 7.71 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.44 -0.61 5.35 5.33 24 -0.52 -0.75 6.46 6.53 36 -0.55 -0.84 7.41 7.62 48 -0.70 -0.91 8.62 8.81 60 -0.74 -1.02 10.07 9.99 72 -1.00 -0.99 11.05 11.41 84 -0.78 -1.21 12.67 12.73