VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.61 2.10 7.93 7.45 24 1.96 3.22 8.79 9.50 36 2.20 2.72 10.68 10.45 48 2.14 3.05 12.02 12.79 60 2.34 2.83 14.17 14.30 72 3.27 3.32 16.07 17.21 84 4.67 4.80 19.59 19.49 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.35 -2.04 9.08 8.73 24 -2.15 -1.93 10.74 10.90 36 -2.49 -3.05 12.97 13.29 48 -2.94 -3.25 15.67 15.86 60 -3.51 -3.96 18.49 19.47 72 -2.99 -4.38 22.93 23.19 84 -2.25 -2.98 27.01 27.39 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.55 -1.74 11.41 10.81 24 -3.03 -1.07 15.36 14.81 36 -2.69 -2.98 19.18 18.54 48 -4.34 -3.10 22.94 23.22 60 -4.33 -5.33 27.31 28.38 72 -5.85 -5.21 33.55 33.25 84 -5.55 -5.33 39.33 40.39 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.03 -0.14 1.20 1.27 24 -0.05 -0.28 1.33 1.45 36 -0.17 -0.35 1.53 1.58 48 -0.21 -0.45 1.66 1.77 60 -0.25 -0.47 1.84 1.95 72 -0.29 -0.52 2.00 2.14 84 -0.41 -0.55 2.28 2.43 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.01 -0.03 0.81 0.78 24 -0.03 -0.02 0.92 0.91 36 0.02 -0.03 1.07 1.01 48 -0.03 -0.01 1.20 1.20 60 -0.04 -0.06 1.33 1.36 72 -0.10 -0.05 1.50 1.53 84 -0.10 -0.11 1.70 1.73 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.35 0.41 0.94 0.99 24 0.23 0.32 1.10 1.11 36 0.21 0.25 1.27 1.30 48 0.17 0.20 1.44 1.47 60 0.12 0.12 1.62 1.61 72 0.01 0.14 1.78 1.83 84 -0.01 0.06 1.99 2.04 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.42 -0.70 3.80 3.87 24 -0.35 -0.53 4.03 4.34 36 -0.24 -0.51 4.51 4.70 48 -0.32 -0.43 4.75 5.23 60 -0.27 -0.50 5.27 5.55 72 -0.29 -0.49 5.48 6.14 84 -0.37 -0.50 6.07 6.38 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.36 -0.49 4.00 3.94 24 -0.42 -0.48 4.46 4.53 36 -0.43 -0.48 5.30 5.06 48 -0.47 -0.66 5.79 5.83 60 -0.58 -0.69 6.36 6.42 72 -0.62 -0.76 7.02 6.96 84 -0.77 -0.81 7.83 7.82 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.69 -0.72 5.37 5.30 24 -0.72 -0.83 6.43 6.32 36 -0.86 -0.98 7.61 7.54 48 -1.11 -1.07 8.55 8.75 60 -1.12 -1.29 9.56 9.56 72 -1.34 -1.51 10.47 10.89 84 -1.62 -1.63 11.80 11.93