VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.37 0.33 8.43 7.81 24 0.06 0.96 10.13 10.63 36 0.43 0.43 13.20 12.30 48 -0.14 1.29 14.75 16.38 60 1.31 0.99 18.68 18.37 72 0.89 4.07 20.94 22.02 84 4.51 4.82 24.75 24.43 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.61 -4.47 10.31 10.11 24 -6.56 -5.81 13.04 13.57 36 -7.67 -7.69 17.75 16.58 48 -9.14 -7.44 20.71 22.45 60 -7.84 -8.61 26.95 26.19 72 -9.43 -6.35 31.34 32.60 84 -6.22 -5.79 37.41 37.99 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.73 -4.77 12.38 11.70 24 -8.01 -6.18 16.79 16.41 36 -9.14 -9.25 23.27 21.81 48 -11.37 -9.11 28.36 29.19 60 -10.36 -11.00 38.02 35.92 72 -12.42 -9.29 44.62 45.25 84 -9.62 -10.26 51.98 52.96 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.21 -0.25 1.31 1.31 24 -0.31 -0.44 1.51 1.58 36 -0.46 -0.55 1.78 1.78 48 -0.55 -0.66 1.96 2.09 60 -0.67 -0.68 2.31 2.26 72 -0.72 -0.78 2.50 2.63 84 -0.73 -0.84 2.84 2.91 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.03 -0.08 0.83 0.81 24 -0.13 -0.10 0.98 1.04 36 -0.14 -0.17 1.27 1.21 48 -0.21 -0.18 1.43 1.52 60 -0.19 -0.27 1.75 1.66 72 -0.28 -0.26 1.96 2.03 84 -0.28 -0.29 2.31 2.24 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.40 0.39 1.05 1.00 24 0.32 0.36 1.19 1.21 36 0.34 0.31 1.41 1.35 48 0.25 0.28 1.57 1.62 60 0.20 0.24 1.79 1.75 72 0.20 0.16 1.97 2.07 84 0.14 0.13 2.21 2.23 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.28 -0.44 3.83 3.86 24 -0.15 -0.21 4.13 4.39 36 -0.20 -0.21 4.75 4.74 48 -0.14 -0.22 5.04 5.57 60 -0.18 -0.22 5.78 6.11 72 -0.25 -0.38 6.07 6.79 84 -0.30 -0.35 6.76 7.17 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.33 -0.41 4.20 4.04 24 -0.30 -0.37 4.76 4.82 36 -0.36 -0.33 5.75 5.40 48 -0.31 -0.45 6.41 6.61 60 -0.46 -0.62 7.47 7.45 72 -0.39 -0.74 8.42 8.71 84 -0.40 -0.58 9.47 9.44 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.81 -0.76 5.32 5.13 24 -0.89 -0.72 6.20 6.25 36 -0.91 -0.90 7.83 7.53 48 -0.91 -0.79 9.08 9.12 60 -1.07 -0.90 10.68 10.19 72 -1.05 -1.10 12.02 11.72 84 -1.22 -0.95 13.32 13.12