VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.53 1.05 9.59 8.86 24 2.17 2.32 11.22 11.33 36 2.90 2.51 14.20 12.64 48 3.10 4.02 16.30 16.62 60 4.67 3.16 19.71 18.20 72 3.98 5.69 22.39 23.16 84 7.15 6.69 26.24 27.42 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.28 -4.06 10.68 10.80 24 -4.64 -4.88 13.56 14.46 36 -4.99 -5.78 18.14 16.87 48 -5.83 -5.18 22.10 22.43 60 -4.69 -7.24 28.02 26.95 72 -5.59 -5.09 32.87 33.92 84 -3.00 -4.11 38.32 40.61 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.55 -2.66 12.25 11.91 24 -4.78 -3.78 15.60 17.13 36 -5.17 -4.13 21.81 20.89 48 -5.11 -3.87 26.90 27.24 60 -4.40 -4.99 32.82 34.44 72 -5.37 -3.52 42.56 41.17 84 -2.84 -3.50 48.27 52.45 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.29 -0.37 1.46 1.48 24 -0.48 -0.66 1.63 1.78 36 -0.62 -0.83 1.90 1.93 48 -0.73 -0.92 2.10 2.23 60 -0.79 -1.05 2.38 2.49 72 -0.83 -1.11 2.66 2.79 84 -0.85 -1.06 2.93 2.98 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.04 -0.04 0.89 0.84 24 -0.08 -0.06 1.03 1.08 36 -0.07 -0.05 1.28 1.21 48 -0.06 -0.07 1.46 1.49 60 -0.09 -0.05 1.72 1.69 72 -0.09 -0.10 1.98 1.94 84 -0.12 -0.14 2.13 2.35 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.40 0.52 1.02 1.08 24 0.45 0.51 1.21 1.28 36 0.40 0.55 1.42 1.45 48 0.45 0.50 1.58 1.65 60 0.41 0.52 1.80 1.84 72 0.37 0.52 1.98 2.01 84 0.34 0.50 2.19 2.24 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.16 -0.57 4.05 3.92 24 -0.05 -0.44 4.39 4.49 36 -0.12 -0.42 4.80 4.85 48 -0.07 -0.47 5.26 5.58 60 -0.15 -0.39 5.81 6.08 72 -0.19 -0.46 6.22 6.80 84 -0.23 -0.58 6.83 7.43 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.46 -0.34 4.45 4.23 24 -0.34 -0.39 5.04 4.97 36 -0.36 -0.30 5.93 5.49 48 -0.30 -0.42 6.62 6.55 60 -0.47 -0.36 7.54 7.41 72 -0.49 -0.64 8.49 8.47 84 -0.71 -0.69 9.40 9.82 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.61 -0.44 5.28 5.09 24 -0.75 -0.68 6.19 6.42 36 -0.74 -0.50 7.47 7.24 48 -0.80 -0.73 8.43 8.40 60 -1.16 -0.82 9.72 9.68 72 -1.18 -1.06 11.00 10.73 84 -1.59 -1.13 12.22 12.58