VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.71 1.36 8.04 8.21 24 1.37 1.09 10.27 10.26 36 1.01 0.52 12.80 13.01 48 0.43 0.42 16.37 16.13 60 1.41 -0.66 20.02 20.55 72 0.19 2.49 26.10 24.39 84 4.51 2.81 28.90 30.03 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.98 -2.50 9.39 10.00 24 -3.44 -4.65 13.02 14.10 36 -5.10 -6.56 18.72 18.72 48 -7.12 -7.61 23.67 24.72 60 -7.69 -9.85 32.49 31.81 72 -9.31 -7.66 41.18 39.40 84 -5.93 -8.04 46.61 46.19 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.16 -1.68 11.42 11.68 24 -3.08 -4.07 16.42 18.03 36 -4.40 -4.77 23.81 24.63 48 -6.09 -6.38 31.52 30.86 60 -6.00 -8.76 41.78 41.84 72 -8.77 -6.40 53.19 51.26 84 -5.46 -7.50 60.48 59.64 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.17 -0.26 1.35 1.39 24 -0.31 -0.40 1.54 1.60 36 -0.41 -0.56 1.76 1.81 48 -0.58 -0.66 2.02 2.04 60 -0.65 -0.78 2.28 2.39 72 -0.72 -0.79 2.64 2.72 84 -0.78 -0.87 2.93 3.07 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.06 -0.01 0.88 0.88 24 -0.05 -0.06 1.08 1.13 36 -0.07 -0.06 1.38 1.40 48 -0.11 -0.09 1.69 1.69 60 -0.15 -0.12 2.01 1.93 72 -0.16 -0.19 2.36 2.27 84 -0.21 -0.19 2.60 2.55 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.39 0.46 1.15 1.18 24 0.43 0.41 1.37 1.41 36 0.36 0.50 1.71 1.69 48 0.40 0.44 1.90 1.98 60 0.42 0.42 2.25 2.25 72 0.38 0.47 2.60 2.62 84 0.37 0.43 2.86 2.77 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.28 -0.46 3.84 3.75 24 -0.16 -0.28 4.19 4.28 36 -0.16 -0.23 4.68 4.69 48 -0.16 -0.23 5.27 5.51 60 -0.16 -0.28 6.10 6.03 72 -0.23 -0.28 6.94 7.02 84 -0.27 -0.29 7.63 7.86 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.71 -0.62 4.29 4.31 24 -0.58 -0.56 5.08 5.38 36 -0.62 -0.53 6.42 6.39 48 -0.68 -0.68 7.57 7.69 60 -0.70 -0.66 9.05 8.81 72 -0.89 -0.76 10.42 10.26 84 -0.72 -0.86 11.64 11.50 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.27 -0.88 5.65 5.39 24 -1.40 -1.33 6.79 6.92 36 -1.62 -1.29 8.51 8.45 48 -1.94 -1.45 9.94 9.74 60 -1.88 -1.80 11.78 11.61 72 -2.16 -1.71 13.38 13.23 84 -1.99 -1.83 15.20 14.40