VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.38 1.11 9.07 9.66 24 1.34 0.91 12.09 12.09 36 0.81 0.31 15.25 14.78 48 0.29 1.32 18.26 18.53 60 2.43 1.25 22.25 22.28 72 1.63 4.33 26.46 26.28 84 6.37 5.97 30.81 29.42 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.87 -3.24 10.75 10.71 24 -3.92 -4.92 14.51 15.05 36 -5.82 -6.65 20.14 20.20 48 -6.69 -6.35 25.11 26.65 60 -5.58 -7.48 31.94 32.47 72 -7.00 -5.26 39.29 37.87 84 -3.62 -5.02 44.96 46.87 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.81 -2.11 12.44 11.95 24 -2.56 -3.95 17.86 18.73 36 -3.80 -4.70 25.74 25.75 48 -4.34 -4.49 33.12 33.89 60 -3.94 -5.40 40.62 40.98 72 -5.35 -4.85 49.71 47.93 84 -3.24 -4.28 55.99 60.05 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.20 -0.26 1.64 1.60 24 -0.40 -0.50 1.86 1.91 36 -0.58 -0.61 2.16 2.14 48 -0.66 -0.73 2.41 2.43 60 -0.77 -0.82 2.77 2.67 72 -0.84 -0.89 3.07 3.03 84 -0.86 -0.94 3.48 3.37 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.01 0.00 0.88 0.88 24 0.00 0.01 1.13 1.17 36 0.04 -0.01 1.43 1.39 48 0.00 -0.02 1.65 1.74 60 -0.01 -0.08 2.01 2.06 72 -0.12 -0.13 2.32 2.33 84 -0.14 -0.14 2.54 2.69 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.46 0.51 1.13 1.11 24 0.54 0.46 1.35 1.33 36 0.49 0.54 1.59 1.59 48 0.56 0.46 1.81 1.82 60 0.47 0.55 2.09 2.03 72 0.59 0.46 2.36 2.29 84 0.43 0.51 2.59 2.61 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.32 -0.44 4.07 3.97 24 -0.23 -0.23 4.50 4.60 36 -0.16 -0.36 5.09 4.96 48 -0.28 -0.36 5.50 5.71 60 -0.36 -0.36 6.18 6.34 72 -0.47 -0.55 7.11 6.81 84 -0.51 -0.64 7.82 7.38 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.58 -0.47 4.41 4.30 24 -0.49 -0.40 5.36 5.34 36 -0.55 -0.48 6.55 6.34 48 -0.70 -0.53 7.53 7.64 60 -0.72 -0.61 8.91 8.73 72 -0.85 -0.65 9.68 9.74 84 -0.82 -0.63 10.92 10.77 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.80 -0.83 5.45 5.30 24 -0.98 -1.18 6.82 7.02 36 -1.06 -0.94 8.43 8.44 48 -1.31 -1.18 9.99 9.75 60 -1.37 -1.30 11.21 11.11 72 -1.21 -1.41 12.68 12.34 84 -1.17 -1.25 13.33 13.98