VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.63 1.12 8.55 9.00 24 2.29 2.03 10.80 12.09 36 3.60 1.44 14.48 14.02 48 2.67 3.52 16.44 18.01 60 3.58 2.29 20.96 21.22 72 2.96 3.22 25.55 26.69 84 3.84 2.63 29.47 31.09 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.28 -3.02 10.72 11.09 24 -3.48 -3.46 14.33 15.52 36 -3.27 -5.58 19.78 20.94 48 -5.19 -4.40 25.00 26.00 60 -4.83 -6.35 31.75 31.63 72 -6.07 -6.08 38.36 38.52 84 -6.86 -7.18 45.10 47.22 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.25 -1.45 13.27 12.42 24 -1.12 -2.03 18.41 18.77 36 -1.31 -4.02 26.20 24.87 48 -3.37 -2.72 32.69 33.79 60 -2.04 -4.73 45.03 42.06 72 -3.13 -3.24 52.42 51.02 84 -5.22 -4.13 65.14 63.81 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.21 -0.23 1.52 1.52 24 -0.47 -0.45 1.70 1.74 36 -0.62 -0.68 1.98 1.99 48 -0.81 -0.78 2.24 2.27 60 -0.87 -0.90 2.55 2.55 72 -0.95 -1.06 2.73 2.79 84 -1.14 -1.05 3.08 3.13 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.01 -0.01 0.91 0.91 24 -0.06 -0.04 1.15 1.18 36 -0.01 -0.07 1.43 1.41 48 -0.10 -0.04 1.69 1.76 60 -0.03 -0.11 2.13 2.08 72 -0.08 -0.02 2.43 2.40 84 -0.10 -0.09 2.75 2.84 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.55 0.54 1.13 1.09 24 0.59 0.48 1.27 1.29 36 0.50 0.51 1.46 1.48 48 0.53 0.48 1.74 1.74 60 0.53 0.50 1.98 1.96 72 0.52 0.53 2.19 2.26 84 0.60 0.53 2.50 2.49 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.57 -0.63 3.86 3.84 24 -0.49 -0.49 4.30 4.33 36 -0.60 -0.56 4.87 4.82 48 -0.56 -0.56 5.41 5.40 60 -0.57 -0.53 6.18 6.12 72 -0.55 -0.57 6.66 6.97 84 -0.51 -0.74 7.62 7.78 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.69 -0.68 4.33 4.21 24 -0.70 -0.80 5.18 5.22 36 -0.78 -0.81 6.46 6.09 48 -0.84 -0.83 7.51 7.38 60 -0.82 -0.94 8.97 8.57 72 -0.85 -0.93 9.70 9.80 84 -0.91 -0.94 11.10 11.29 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.90 -0.78 5.28 5.18 24 -1.08 -1.17 6.34 6.68 36 -1.29 -1.30 8.11 8.06 48 -1.34 -1.31 9.30 9.71 60 -1.53 -1.51 11.72 11.46 72 -1.69 -1.77 13.21 13.25 84 -1.86 -1.34 14.95 15.24