VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.04 1.18 8.50 8.80 24 1.07 2.01 10.36 10.83 36 2.79 1.56 13.02 13.19 48 2.20 3.67 16.19 17.20 60 4.56 3.95 20.80 19.96 72 4.48 5.39 23.70 24.94 84 5.76 6.74 29.87 28.86 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.23 -4.66 10.76 10.97 24 -6.34 -5.38 14.08 14.00 36 -6.11 -7.55 17.36 18.36 48 -7.27 -6.19 22.47 22.41 60 -6.02 -7.22 29.64 27.74 72 -6.32 -6.78 33.29 36.05 84 -6.03 -5.20 45.56 41.43 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.03 -3.44 12.92 12.70 24 -3.46 -3.77 17.16 17.75 36 -3.51 -6.03 22.95 23.15 48 -5.27 -4.86 29.16 29.34 60 -4.37 -6.68 39.61 36.57 72 -4.98 -6.00 45.57 50.54 84 -2.92 -4.81 62.60 56.13 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.17 -0.34 1.46 1.55 24 -0.41 -0.50 1.66 1.84 36 -0.54 -0.68 1.98 2.04 48 -0.65 -0.80 2.19 2.27 60 -0.72 -0.91 2.43 2.46 72 -0.78 -0.95 2.67 2.88 84 -0.79 -0.99 3.17 3.07 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.03 -0.08 0.90 0.86 24 -0.06 -0.12 1.07 1.06 36 -0.09 -0.16 1.37 1.30 48 -0.14 -0.16 1.64 1.63 60 -0.19 -0.22 1.86 1.83 72 -0.18 -0.29 2.16 2.22 84 -0.16 -0.30 2.64 2.43 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.52 0.51 1.13 1.10 24 0.49 0.51 1.30 1.29 36 0.52 0.48 1.49 1.47 48 0.47 0.53 1.69 1.66 60 0.49 0.46 1.92 1.86 72 0.47 0.47 2.14 2.27 84 0.44 0.38 2.50 2.45 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.43 -0.55 3.91 4.07 24 -0.30 -0.37 4.25 4.51 36 -0.32 -0.34 4.87 4.99 48 -0.30 -0.31 5.34 5.68 60 -0.30 -0.37 6.11 6.21 72 -0.32 -0.54 6.75 7.07 84 -0.38 -0.48 7.55 7.74 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.60 -0.52 4.21 4.12 24 -0.45 -0.60 4.89 5.06 36 -0.56 -0.49 5.67 5.98 48 -0.54 -0.67 6.69 6.79 60 -0.60 -0.73 7.69 7.74 72 -0.67 -0.84 8.55 9.10 84 -0.77 -1.03 10.37 9.85 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.71 -0.78 5.10 5.02 24 -0.76 -0.93 5.92 6.38 36 -1.00 -0.90 7.53 7.44 48 -1.07 -1.23 8.67 8.81 60 -1.14 -1.12 10.59 10.17 72 -1.25 -1.05 11.71 12.06 84 -1.38 -1.07 14.41 13.52