VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.81 0.31 7.61 7.47 24 0.61 0.77 8.83 9.30 36 -0.75 0.27 11.28 11.41 48 -1.09 -0.47 13.72 13.96 60 -1.81 -1.32 16.64 17.07 72 -1.92 -1.84 19.05 21.76 84 -1.84 0.10 24.74 24.29 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.92 -3.98 10.21 9.35 24 -3.57 -4.23 11.67 11.95 36 -4.90 -5.28 15.21 15.91 48 -5.41 -5.84 19.02 19.21 60 -5.44 -7.04 23.30 24.44 72 -5.82 -7.36 27.96 28.78 84 -6.74 -6.29 33.19 33.91 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.40 -0.23 12.02 11.46 24 2.03 1.25 16.57 16.58 36 2.77 1.34 22.24 22.65 48 3.49 2.10 28.16 29.07 60 4.49 2.28 35.86 34.80 72 4.32 2.75 41.87 41.89 84 4.74 3.88 50.46 49.41 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.06 -0.26 1.22 1.23 24 -0.16 -0.31 1.38 1.40 36 -0.17 -0.37 1.49 1.58 48 -0.21 -0.40 1.66 1.73 60 -0.22 -0.43 1.88 1.96 72 -0.23 -0.44 2.07 2.14 84 -0.32 -0.49 2.26 2.39 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.02 -0.04 0.82 0.84 24 0.03 -0.06 0.98 1.02 36 0.08 -0.03 1.18 1.22 48 0.14 0.03 1.38 1.42 60 0.15 0.04 1.70 1.62 72 0.15 0.09 1.87 1.90 84 0.15 0.00 2.16 2.05 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.69 0.62 1.15 1.13 24 0.71 0.71 1.32 1.33 36 0.78 0.75 1.55 1.61 48 0.82 0.82 1.76 1.80 60 0.88 0.89 1.96 2.00 72 0.90 0.91 2.18 2.19 84 0.99 0.92 2.37 2.42 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.39 -0.46 3.60 3.69 24 -0.31 -0.40 4.04 4.09 36 -0.34 -0.42 4.32 4.62 48 -0.30 -0.42 4.89 5.18 60 -0.33 -0.38 5.35 5.74 72 -0.47 -0.44 5.64 6.47 84 -0.45 -0.58 6.58 6.66 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.53 -0.62 3.95 3.91 24 -0.46 -0.63 4.54 4.56 36 -0.54 -0.64 5.33 5.31 48 -0.51 -0.75 6.18 6.07 60 -0.64 -0.64 6.96 6.87 72 -0.60 -0.97 7.56 7.76 84 -0.86 -1.00 8.35 8.31 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.48 -0.51 4.99 4.69 24 -0.77 -0.73 5.99 5.97 36 -1.02 -0.76 7.53 7.42 48 -1.07 -0.92 8.83 8.96 60 -1.37 -1.01 10.38 10.00 72 -1.47 -1.39 11.68 11.47 84 -1.84 -1.44 12.78 12.72