VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.83 1.76 7.26 7.87 24 1.60 1.47 8.85 8.51 36 -1.11 1.56 9.65 10.02 48 -0.93 -1.30 12.01 12.01 60 -4.22 -2.40 14.43 14.66 72 -4.87 -5.08 17.60 17.90 84 -5.58 -4.86 20.41 20.18 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.40 -0.59 8.78 8.69 24 -0.60 -1.05 10.37 10.50 36 -3.01 -1.24 12.71 12.84 48 -2.34 -3.48 16.50 16.29 60 -5.72 -4.07 20.30 19.79 72 -5.67 -6.88 24.86 24.56 84 -6.22 -6.96 26.97 29.10 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 3.62 4.82 12.29 12.71 24 6.42 6.36 16.79 16.92 36 6.86 7.72 20.66 22.10 48 8.86 8.38 26.44 25.77 60 8.23 8.10 30.77 30.95 72 7.61 7.35 36.38 35.33 84 9.11 6.29 40.30 42.43 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.15 -0.17 1.20 1.32 24 0.09 -0.12 1.30 1.46 36 0.06 -0.19 1.44 1.55 48 0.05 -0.18 1.57 1.76 60 -0.01 -0.20 1.78 1.89 72 0.00 -0.25 2.02 2.16 84 -0.06 -0.29 2.27 2.39 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.16 0.15 0.83 0.87 24 0.18 0.16 0.96 0.98 36 0.25 0.19 1.08 1.12 48 0.28 0.28 1.22 1.27 60 0.37 0.30 1.39 1.40 72 0.36 0.35 1.57 1.59 84 0.43 0.33 1.68 1.71 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.80 0.76 1.23 1.25 24 0.80 0.87 1.43 1.45 36 0.95 0.93 1.64 1.67 48 1.02 1.07 1.87 1.86 60 1.13 1.08 2.07 2.01 72 1.13 1.20 2.26 2.18 84 1.19 1.12 2.38 2.33 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.45 -0.52 3.74 4.03 24 -0.39 -0.42 3.99 4.37 36 -0.23 -0.42 4.26 4.67 48 -0.29 -0.19 4.62 5.01 60 -0.18 -0.35 5.03 5.58 72 -0.38 -0.29 5.52 6.18 84 -0.33 -0.48 6.29 6.71 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.22 -0.16 4.13 4.06 24 -0.35 0.03 4.57 4.57 36 -0.34 -0.01 5.10 5.12 48 -0.37 0.07 5.76 5.69 60 -0.26 -0.05 6.47 6.53 72 -0.42 0.07 7.07 7.20 84 -0.42 -0.18 7.82 7.77 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.36 -0.56 5.52 5.83 24 -0.48 -0.78 6.96 6.98 36 -0.43 -0.83 7.87 8.29 48 -0.58 -0.79 9.08 9.11 60 -0.57 -1.11 10.21 10.37 72 -0.81 -0.95 11.59 11.49 84 -0.93 -1.40 12.44 12.36