VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.02 1.30 8.01 7.86 24 2.11 2.41 9.35 9.25 36 0.80 3.32 10.59 11.26 48 1.51 1.15 12.69 12.74 60 -0.91 1.23 15.07 15.23 72 -0.76 -0.81 17.83 18.18 84 -1.19 -0.47 19.97 20.89 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.44 -1.08 9.31 8.98 24 -1.10 -0.65 10.69 11.18 36 -2.63 -0.64 13.91 13.79 48 -2.27 -2.58 16.96 17.16 60 -3.92 -2.94 21.08 21.06 72 -4.40 -4.25 24.31 25.58 84 -4.83 -5.13 30.15 28.80 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 3.81 5.33 12.68 12.62 24 7.43 8.13 16.59 17.87 36 9.19 10.09 21.52 21.93 48 11.34 11.46 26.26 27.04 60 12.45 12.51 32.34 31.47 72 12.69 13.42 36.74 38.28 84 15.05 13.37 44.95 42.83 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.05 -0.15 1.26 1.34 24 -0.02 -0.24 1.39 1.48 36 -0.12 -0.28 1.54 1.58 48 -0.14 -0.40 1.68 1.77 60 -0.23 -0.41 1.88 1.98 72 -0.28 -0.50 2.13 2.18 84 -0.32 -0.56 2.37 2.42 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.12 0.15 0.83 0.83 24 0.13 0.18 0.96 0.98 36 0.20 0.14 1.12 1.11 48 0.22 0.26 1.29 1.30 60 0.32 0.27 1.52 1.46 72 0.28 0.35 1.62 1.68 84 0.40 0.32 1.87 1.80 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.85 0.82 1.29 1.27 24 1.00 0.92 1.54 1.51 36 1.13 1.15 1.77 1.80 48 1.26 1.24 2.01 1.98 60 1.33 1.34 2.20 2.21 72 1.39 1.34 2.29 2.37 84 1.39 1.43 2.48 2.51 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.46 -0.70 3.84 3.85 24 -0.39 -0.49 4.08 4.33 36 -0.29 -0.54 4.39 4.60 48 -0.32 -0.42 4.68 5.00 60 -0.35 -0.54 5.21 5.45 72 -0.42 -0.58 5.45 5.82 84 -0.45 -0.60 6.01 6.51 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.39 -0.39 4.19 4.07 24 -0.35 -0.51 4.60 4.66 36 -0.39 -0.42 5.30 5.26 48 -0.28 -0.52 5.91 6.06 60 -0.38 -0.63 6.72 6.50 72 -0.45 -0.69 7.17 7.42 84 -0.63 -0.69 8.26 8.03 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.42 -0.41 5.46 5.21 24 -0.70 -0.73 6.64 6.62 36 -0.73 -0.68 7.75 7.43 48 -0.80 -0.97 8.81 8.72 60 -0.96 -1.00 10.06 9.83 72 -1.27 -1.24 10.99 11.14 84 -1.12 -1.34 12.60 12.20