VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.66 -0.62 7.94 8.48 24 -2.95 -2.25 10.70 10.55 36 -4.11 -2.09 13.97 14.08 48 -3.69 -3.75 17.22 16.87 60 -4.89 -2.93 19.38 19.87 72 -4.60 -2.24 23.98 23.97 84 -2.02 -2.87 29.62 29.17 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.50 -3.25 10.57 10.42 24 -5.39 -4.82 13.85 13.95 36 -5.52 -5.39 17.86 19.07 48 -5.71 -5.56 23.46 22.22 60 -5.24 -5.94 27.44 28.80 72 -6.28 -2.80 34.34 33.88 84 -1.37 -4.43 42.63 41.28 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.98 2.24 13.23 12.89 24 5.45 4.04 18.73 17.26 36 7.96 6.32 24.89 23.69 48 9.40 9.07 31.40 30.58 60 11.85 10.07 37.25 36.89 72 12.32 15.05 47.70 47.59 84 18.84 14.19 59.57 56.01 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.11 -0.22 1.59 1.60 24 -0.21 -0.22 1.79 1.79 36 -0.14 -0.26 2.05 2.00 48 -0.22 -0.23 2.27 2.22 60 -0.16 -0.30 2.53 2.49 72 -0.16 -0.17 2.80 2.80 84 -0.03 -0.19 3.11 3.13 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.10 0.07 0.93 0.92 24 0.19 0.14 1.15 1.14 36 0.29 0.18 1.41 1.42 48 0.29 0.35 1.70 1.66 60 0.39 0.28 1.91 1.84 72 0.35 0.43 2.24 2.15 84 0.48 0.38 2.56 2.53 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.86 0.78 1.46 1.43 24 1.03 0.81 1.79 1.68 36 1.01 0.87 1.99 1.97 48 1.04 0.86 2.19 2.16 60 1.06 0.91 2.38 2.40 72 1.14 0.91 2.68 2.64 84 1.15 1.01 3.01 2.88 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.22 -0.51 4.18 4.13 24 -0.15 -0.38 4.54 4.44 36 -0.02 -0.38 5.07 5.05 48 -0.26 -0.54 5.65 5.62 60 -0.13 -0.60 6.13 6.08 72 -0.19 -0.49 6.78 6.80 84 -0.24 -0.45 7.41 7.55 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.66 -0.57 4.48 4.47 24 -0.59 -0.57 5.27 5.17 36 -0.74 -0.65 6.00 6.14 48 -0.67 -0.68 7.00 6.86 60 -0.77 -0.68 7.81 8.00 72 -0.66 -0.92 9.12 8.78 84 -0.87 -0.86 10.05 9.77 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.43 -0.48 5.15 5.13 24 -0.65 -1.04 6.41 6.42 36 -1.02 -1.30 7.63 7.80 48 -1.24 -1.35 9.12 8.43 60 -1.13 -1.42 9.81 9.97 72 -1.18 -1.66 11.15 11.26 84 -1.37 -1.38 13.07 12.43