VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.18 0.18 8.32 8.62 24 -1.72 -1.50 9.56 10.45 36 -2.36 -1.89 12.60 12.76 48 -2.67 -2.00 15.49 15.92 60 -2.15 -2.44 18.56 19.04 72 -2.15 -0.75 22.65 23.54 84 -0.33 0.33 27.36 27.28 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.86 -2.10 10.29 9.94 24 -3.58 -3.78 12.54 13.44 36 -3.22 -4.01 17.36 17.52 48 -2.69 -2.56 21.63 24.20 60 -1.27 -2.52 28.78 28.41 72 -0.53 0.36 34.78 35.80 84 3.21 2.56 42.42 41.44 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 2.33 2.38 13.47 12.33 24 6.02 3.75 18.03 17.03 36 9.61 7.09 25.35 22.74 48 13.00 10.96 31.61 31.73 60 15.92 13.64 40.80 39.29 72 20.05 17.64 50.66 48.96 84 24.03 21.46 60.69 58.73 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.14 -0.14 1.51 1.52 24 -0.23 -0.18 1.67 1.67 36 -0.12 -0.23 1.93 1.87 48 -0.11 -0.14 2.11 2.11 60 -0.02 -0.11 2.37 2.39 72 0.04 -0.02 2.66 2.72 84 0.05 0.09 3.00 3.10 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.09 0.08 0.88 0.88 24 0.16 0.12 1.08 1.14 36 0.28 0.22 1.42 1.32 48 0.35 0.36 1.61 1.73 60 0.42 0.44 1.96 1.98 72 0.55 0.52 2.25 2.24 84 0.71 0.59 2.63 2.48 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.77 0.68 1.38 1.29 24 0.86 0.79 1.60 1.61 36 0.91 0.84 1.91 1.90 48 1.05 0.86 2.22 2.18 60 1.02 0.96 2.42 2.42 72 1.08 0.94 2.71 2.65 84 1.00 0.96 2.99 2.92 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.44 -0.59 3.87 3.85 24 -0.43 -0.54 4.19 4.27 36 -0.55 -0.45 4.78 4.65 48 -0.54 -0.51 5.25 5.28 60 -0.54 -0.51 5.84 5.88 72 -0.67 -0.44 6.58 6.54 84 -0.60 -0.44 7.27 7.14 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.70 -0.70 4.36 4.22 24 -0.56 -0.64 5.05 5.19 36 -0.87 -0.78 6.14 5.96 48 -0.81 -1.00 7.05 7.10 60 -1.03 -1.01 8.19 8.01 72 -1.23 -1.32 9.26 9.11 84 -1.46 -1.24 10.43 10.18 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.63 -0.41 5.35 5.17 24 -0.93 -0.99 6.45 6.59 36 -1.21 -0.99 8.05 7.93 48 -1.42 -1.34 9.48 9.42 60 -1.70 -1.33 10.94 10.77 72 -1.67 -1.51 12.32 12.39 84 -2.02 -1.66 14.54 13.90