VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.09 -2.71 8.77 8.52 24 -4.29 -3.96 10.26 10.59 36 -5.95 -5.05 14.04 13.48 48 -6.60 -5.01 17.65 16.84 60 -5.30 -5.68 20.25 20.50 72 -5.79 -3.80 23.27 24.77 84 -5.51 -2.67 28.66 27.37 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -5.83 -4.92 11.02 10.86 24 -5.98 -6.50 13.43 14.71 36 -7.39 -6.79 18.87 19.42 48 -6.35 -6.95 24.08 25.43 60 -4.99 -6.04 29.99 29.33 72 -5.38 -3.51 34.40 34.10 84 -4.80 -2.64 40.04 38.76 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.28 0.75 13.37 12.10 24 5.20 3.14 17.75 17.54 36 7.55 6.29 24.41 24.00 48 11.94 8.75 31.64 32.92 60 14.90 12.31 40.07 38.85 72 15.29 16.29 46.05 47.07 84 18.11 16.77 54.98 54.75 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.06 -0.15 1.50 1.50 24 -0.10 -0.15 1.62 1.67 36 -0.04 -0.10 1.87 1.89 48 0.01 -0.05 2.13 2.24 60 0.10 0.01 2.45 2.34 72 0.14 0.04 2.55 2.62 84 0.12 0.07 2.90 2.83 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.12 0.11 0.88 0.89 24 0.19 0.15 1.14 1.12 36 0.23 0.25 1.35 1.37 48 0.40 0.28 1.63 1.67 60 0.43 0.41 1.94 1.86 72 0.47 0.50 2.04 2.10 84 0.54 0.45 2.39 2.31 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.86 0.73 1.34 1.22 24 1.05 0.93 1.62 1.56 36 1.26 1.10 1.94 1.80 48 1.38 1.24 2.20 2.10 60 1.43 1.36 2.45 2.37 72 1.49 1.36 2.57 2.63 84 1.45 1.37 2.83 2.67 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.57 -0.55 3.93 3.91 24 -0.58 -0.55 4.42 4.33 36 -0.60 -0.47 4.81 4.75 48 -0.61 -0.62 5.49 5.41 60 -0.49 -0.63 6.17 5.92 72 -0.69 -0.67 6.61 6.63 84 -0.71 -0.78 7.27 6.86 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.67 -0.66 4.46 4.30 24 -0.51 -0.56 5.12 5.22 36 -0.84 -0.66 6.20 6.25 48 -0.75 -0.78 7.10 7.24 60 -0.91 -0.83 8.04 8.08 72 -0.87 -0.86 8.47 9.12 84 -0.88 -0.89 9.72 9.21 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.72 -0.61 5.24 4.98 24 -0.96 -0.71 6.26 6.47 36 -1.20 -0.87 7.79 7.60 48 -1.25 -1.15 8.99 9.36 60 -1.23 -1.07 10.44 10.04 72 -1.41 -1.07 11.19 11.09 84 -1.41 -1.02 12.06 12.08