VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.99 -1.01 8.08 8.65 24 -1.63 -1.57 9.61 10.25 36 -2.50 -2.52 12.57 12.92 48 -3.73 -3.12 15.84 16.20 60 -4.29 -4.82 19.35 19.71 72 -6.10 -4.59 23.83 22.62 84 -6.31 -3.86 26.95 28.56 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.02 -3.09 9.69 9.98 24 -3.05 -3.13 11.85 13.38 36 -2.87 -4.23 17.40 17.19 48 -4.34 -3.12 21.34 23.02 60 -2.37 -5.12 27.63 28.45 72 -4.59 -3.01 33.74 33.51 84 -3.68 -3.45 41.43 41.02 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 4.88 3.04 13.47 12.84 24 8.15 6.24 18.30 18.18 36 12.05 7.89 26.12 23.54 48 11.85 12.73 32.03 32.36 60 17.32 11.71 41.47 38.25 72 15.47 16.33 49.09 48.90 84 18.56 15.73 60.88 58.38 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.00 -0.11 1.34 1.36 24 -0.07 -0.11 1.47 1.52 36 0.03 -0.14 1.67 1.65 48 0.02 -0.04 1.82 1.87 60 0.12 -0.06 2.16 2.01 72 0.07 0.05 2.37 2.41 84 0.14 0.05 2.62 2.71 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.20 0.14 0.96 0.91 24 0.25 0.19 1.15 1.14 36 0.34 0.22 1.40 1.32 48 0.36 0.37 1.61 1.58 60 0.48 0.38 1.96 1.79 72 0.43 0.49 2.12 2.12 84 0.57 0.44 2.53 2.33 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.89 0.78 1.35 1.26 24 1.10 0.97 1.60 1.56 36 1.31 1.12 1.96 1.81 48 1.49 1.33 2.17 2.09 60 1.57 1.43 2.52 2.24 72 1.60 1.52 2.69 2.65 84 1.71 1.59 2.96 2.77 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.33 -0.63 3.69 3.86 24 -0.28 -0.46 3.93 4.20 36 -0.41 -0.56 4.38 4.63 48 -0.43 -0.68 4.87 5.24 60 -0.43 -0.70 5.65 5.88 72 -0.54 -0.69 6.32 6.43 84 -0.54 -0.91 6.80 7.19 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.73 -0.43 4.28 4.22 24 -0.72 -0.39 4.84 5.00 36 -0.89 -0.36 5.78 5.55 48 -0.83 -0.60 6.39 6.63 60 -1.18 -0.55 7.63 7.31 72 -1.32 -0.78 8.51 8.53 84 -1.36 -0.94 9.55 9.31 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.67 -0.51 4.86 4.89 24 -0.83 -1.01 5.81 6.01 36 -1.17 -1.09 7.32 7.08 48 -1.10 -1.35 8.56 8.56 60 -1.56 -1.48 10.23 9.57 72 -1.55 -1.75 11.35 11.42 84 -1.80 -1.71 12.62 12.90