VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.90 -0.84 7.82 7.72 24 -1.13 -1.46 8.29 8.48 36 -2.03 -2.30 10.46 10.71 48 -2.94 -2.16 13.14 13.66 60 -2.45 -3.64 16.58 16.45 72 -3.42 -3.17 19.95 20.62 84 -3.04 -1.80 24.70 24.99 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.34 -3.44 9.55 9.56 24 -3.19 -4.75 10.87 11.54 36 -3.89 -5.43 13.68 14.99 48 -5.27 -4.95 18.19 18.05 60 -3.31 -5.89 23.02 22.64 72 -4.26 -3.86 27.64 28.07 84 -2.68 -2.64 33.40 33.95 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 4.32 3.18 12.56 11.94 24 8.54 4.96 16.78 15.22 36 10.01 7.24 21.54 20.90 48 12.72 10.22 29.24 26.98 60 16.37 12.17 37.37 33.94 72 17.66 15.89 42.65 43.12 84 19.49 18.72 50.51 49.80 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.03 -0.12 1.11 1.24 24 -0.05 -0.15 1.22 1.31 36 -0.09 -0.21 1.36 1.46 48 -0.14 -0.22 1.51 1.59 60 -0.12 -0.25 1.66 1.82 72 -0.18 -0.22 1.89 2.03 84 -0.11 -0.25 2.18 2.19 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.16 0.09 0.83 0.83 24 0.21 0.12 1.01 0.98 36 0.24 0.19 1.17 1.18 48 0.32 0.28 1.40 1.34 60 0.42 0.32 1.61 1.59 72 0.51 0.42 1.80 1.82 84 0.52 0.49 2.06 2.02 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.93 0.82 1.33 1.28 24 1.04 0.98 1.56 1.52 36 1.19 1.13 1.82 1.76 48 1.43 1.23 2.11 2.01 60 1.47 1.43 2.31 2.29 72 1.63 1.47 2.60 2.48 84 1.64 1.61 2.79 2.69 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.28 -0.36 3.53 3.64 24 -0.35 -0.39 3.75 3.87 36 -0.36 -0.36 4.09 4.14 48 -0.43 -0.32 4.33 4.62 60 -0.41 -0.36 4.95 5.05 72 -0.46 -0.44 5.33 5.80 84 -0.55 -0.58 6.04 6.14 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.54 -0.42 3.99 3.76 24 -0.38 -0.37 4.53 4.18 36 -0.40 -0.35 5.12 4.83 48 -0.42 -0.51 5.99 5.52 60 -0.50 -0.46 6.54 6.48 72 -0.53 -0.71 7.35 7.47 84 -0.73 -0.64 8.19 8.16 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.48 -0.39 4.89 4.77 24 -0.55 -0.75 5.66 5.66 36 -0.99 -0.83 6.91 6.71 48 -0.89 -1.16 8.36 8.24 60 -1.32 -0.99 9.32 9.42 72 -1.20 -1.46 10.26 10.99 84 -1.67 -1.30 12.61 12.28