VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.79 -0.13 7.50 7.87 24 -1.38 -0.87 8.45 8.95 36 -3.81 -2.95 10.60 10.69 48 -5.27 -4.67 13.35 13.78 60 -5.25 -5.52 14.80 15.99 72 -6.74 -5.31 18.51 18.30 84 -6.52 -4.40 20.66 21.82 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.89 -2.79 9.04 9.45 24 -2.93 -4.20 10.56 11.64 36 -5.52 -6.83 13.92 14.92 48 -6.73 -8.19 17.24 18.26 60 -6.97 -8.83 20.42 22.09 72 -8.48 -9.14 25.74 25.20 84 -8.86 -7.41 29.30 30.59 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 7.34 5.74 14.36 12.87 24 9.45 6.02 17.68 15.52 36 9.29 6.30 21.42 20.03 48 10.51 7.02 27.53 26.06 60 11.52 7.91 32.71 32.11 72 11.38 8.48 40.44 37.17 84 9.99 11.46 44.47 47.52 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.12 0.00 1.18 1.23 24 0.06 0.00 1.25 1.37 36 0.08 -0.07 1.36 1.49 48 0.05 -0.05 1.47 1.62 60 0.00 -0.06 1.69 1.83 72 0.01 -0.08 1.86 2.03 84 -0.05 -0.06 2.13 2.26 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.26 0.17 0.85 0.84 24 0.27 0.15 0.98 0.98 36 0.29 0.18 1.14 1.10 48 0.36 0.22 1.33 1.27 60 0.35 0.29 1.49 1.43 72 0.41 0.31 1.67 1.65 84 0.38 0.34 1.85 1.75 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.07 0.98 1.47 1.37 24 1.19 1.12 1.64 1.64 36 1.37 1.26 1.91 1.84 48 1.46 1.33 2.11 2.06 60 1.46 1.37 2.26 2.22 72 1.51 1.39 2.39 2.42 84 1.53 1.45 2.54 2.50 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.34 -0.53 3.58 3.67 24 -0.29 -0.49 3.83 4.06 36 -0.24 -0.58 4.19 4.23 48 -0.25 -0.44 4.50 4.97 60 -0.35 -0.52 5.04 5.22 72 -0.36 -0.50 5.39 5.84 84 -0.45 -0.56 5.95 6.38 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.42 -0.46 3.87 3.89 24 -0.37 -0.31 4.25 4.29 36 -0.35 -0.34 4.91 4.95 48 -0.47 -0.28 5.34 5.58 60 -0.47 -0.50 6.09 6.20 72 -0.59 -0.59 6.63 6.77 84 -0.71 -0.78 7.45 7.49 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.12 -0.34 5.22 5.19 24 -0.43 -0.73 6.27 6.14 36 -0.61 -0.81 7.19 7.08 48 -0.71 -1.19 8.50 8.55 60 -1.11 -1.46 9.77 9.41 72 -1.11 -1.68 11.16 10.96 84 -1.73 -1.76 12.46 12.31