VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.48 -0.63 7.48 7.68 24 -1.20 -1.50 8.51 8.14 36 -3.79 -2.33 10.14 10.47 48 -4.36 -3.51 12.52 12.06 60 -3.66 -4.38 13.94 14.37 72 -5.57 -3.53 16.83 16.57 84 -4.21 -3.76 18.64 18.95 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.23 -2.95 8.91 9.03 24 -2.50 -4.39 9.84 10.65 36 -4.70 -5.62 12.54 13.15 48 -5.49 -6.04 15.01 15.53 60 -4.49 -7.23 17.47 18.08 72 -6.29 -5.99 20.27 20.38 84 -5.04 -5.88 23.37 23.12 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 7.70 6.69 14.43 13.56 24 9.60 5.61 17.23 14.44 36 8.44 6.03 19.87 18.16 48 9.62 5.98 23.70 23.00 60 10.33 6.48 28.95 26.60 72 10.06 7.83 31.99 32.35 84 10.82 9.32 38.07 37.23 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.21 -0.01 1.13 1.13 24 0.18 0.10 1.17 1.25 36 0.22 0.07 1.31 1.32 48 0.21 0.11 1.42 1.54 60 0.25 0.12 1.63 1.61 72 0.20 0.14 1.75 1.80 84 0.22 0.13 1.97 1.87 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.26 0.23 0.90 0.88 24 0.26 0.18 0.99 0.95 36 0.28 0.19 1.10 1.08 48 0.33 0.19 1.23 1.21 60 0.30 0.24 1.34 1.30 72 0.39 0.24 1.45 1.44 84 0.33 0.31 1.60 1.56 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.07 0.97 1.39 1.36 24 1.11 1.03 1.56 1.50 36 1.22 1.12 1.76 1.71 48 1.29 1.13 1.93 1.86 60 1.25 1.17 2.05 1.99 72 1.25 1.16 2.17 2.13 84 1.22 1.18 2.21 2.21 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.47 -0.64 3.42 3.68 24 -0.37 -0.61 3.71 3.97 36 -0.38 -0.61 4.02 4.39 48 -0.37 -0.57 4.48 4.72 60 -0.41 -0.58 4.72 5.21 72 -0.40 -0.60 5.17 5.54 84 -0.42 -0.64 5.33 5.90 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.39 -0.26 3.87 3.84 24 -0.38 -0.25 4.16 4.15 36 -0.45 -0.20 4.74 4.72 48 -0.47 -0.26 5.02 5.29 60 -0.50 -0.28 5.69 5.70 72 -0.59 -0.36 6.04 6.13 84 -0.69 -0.54 6.30 6.81 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.37 -0.56 4.80 4.86 24 -0.58 -0.91 5.70 5.68 36 -0.69 -1.05 6.78 6.52 48 -1.00 -1.45 7.83 7.95 60 -1.24 -1.51 8.76 8.77 72 -1.45 -1.90 9.71 10.04 84 -1.75 -1.97 10.86 10.99