VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.30 -0.17 7.89 8.04 24 -0.61 -0.90 9.26 8.59 36 -2.61 -0.81 10.10 10.68 48 -2.08 -1.50 12.25 11.46 60 -3.03 -2.59 13.74 14.00 72 -3.62 -2.40 16.47 15.50 84 -3.74 -2.83 17.99 18.83 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.31 -2.67 9.37 9.11 24 -3.28 -4.43 10.28 10.87 36 -5.16 -4.68 12.81 12.94 48 -4.55 -5.01 14.50 14.52 60 -5.61 -5.87 17.33 17.41 72 -6.59 -6.24 21.04 20.16 84 -6.60 -6.83 23.54 24.21 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 4.06 4.82 12.77 12.45 24 4.24 3.60 15.63 14.53 36 4.51 3.41 18.38 18.77 48 5.30 4.62 22.60 22.01 60 4.31 4.43 26.69 27.20 72 4.34 2.39 34.13 31.43 84 2.45 3.69 38.38 39.80 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.13 -0.08 1.19 1.15 24 0.09 -0.07 1.25 1.29 36 0.09 -0.11 1.38 1.36 48 0.09 -0.08 1.51 1.47 60 0.09 -0.09 1.62 1.59 72 0.03 -0.11 1.76 1.68 84 -0.03 -0.12 1.85 1.89 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.23 0.19 0.85 0.84 24 0.17 0.15 0.92 0.89 36 0.21 0.14 0.99 1.01 48 0.22 0.17 1.13 1.12 60 0.20 0.20 1.19 1.22 72 0.26 0.18 1.39 1.29 84 0.21 0.20 1.45 1.52 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.92 0.81 1.28 1.25 24 0.86 0.84 1.39 1.40 36 0.97 0.81 1.55 1.54 48 0.94 0.89 1.67 1.64 60 0.96 0.91 1.83 1.80 72 0.99 0.86 1.98 1.90 84 0.87 0.90 2.08 2.10 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.34 -0.59 3.65 3.87 24 -0.35 -0.54 4.08 4.16 36 -0.40 -0.60 4.29 4.59 48 -0.41 -0.48 4.73 4.86 60 -0.38 -0.45 4.96 5.26 72 -0.26 -0.51 5.45 5.51 84 -0.37 -0.47 5.60 6.01 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.33 -0.15 3.88 3.98 24 -0.45 -0.12 4.28 4.26 36 -0.35 -0.17 4.65 4.91 48 -0.39 -0.08 5.15 5.21 60 -0.33 -0.19 5.53 5.61 72 -0.34 -0.10 6.16 6.04 84 -0.35 -0.13 6.58 6.83 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.38 -0.47 5.20 5.37 24 -0.64 -0.72 6.38 6.13 36 -0.58 -0.91 7.18 7.34 48 -0.80 -1.03 8.40 8.01 60 -1.10 -1.16 9.29 9.30 72 -1.20 -1.35 11.13 10.30 84 -1.37 -1.81 11.57 11.92