VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.69 0.38 8.01 7.95 24 -0.46 -0.78 9.10 8.63 36 -1.81 -1.02 10.54 10.08 48 -2.06 -1.65 12.07 12.40 60 -2.86 -2.94 15.10 15.76 72 -3.53 -3.27 17.89 18.22 84 -4.01 -3.94 20.28 20.18 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.08 -2.08 9.39 9.27 24 -3.32 -4.04 10.29 11.13 36 -4.34 -4.57 12.94 13.58 48 -4.68 -4.99 15.72 16.18 60 -5.56 -6.21 19.32 20.25 72 -6.40 -6.14 22.85 23.24 84 -7.43 -7.37 27.22 26.78 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 3.80 4.37 12.36 12.78 24 4.83 4.15 15.82 15.87 36 6.17 4.56 19.81 20.07 48 6.48 6.52 24.57 24.75 60 6.48 5.31 29.82 30.24 72 6.08 5.27 34.72 34.97 84 5.21 4.18 42.95 41.09 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.07 -0.11 1.17 1.21 24 -0.02 -0.11 1.32 1.34 36 -0.01 -0.19 1.45 1.45 48 -0.06 -0.17 1.59 1.61 60 -0.07 -0.17 1.74 1.78 72 -0.11 -0.21 1.94 1.93 84 -0.14 -0.22 2.19 2.17 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.19 0.17 0.85 0.89 24 0.19 0.17 0.97 0.98 36 0.25 0.21 1.10 1.10 48 0.29 0.26 1.21 1.26 60 0.28 0.28 1.39 1.38 72 0.31 0.27 1.52 1.51 84 0.30 0.28 1.71 1.68 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.80 0.73 1.24 1.21 24 0.78 0.81 1.38 1.39 36 0.91 0.86 1.61 1.55 48 0.93 0.97 1.73 1.74 60 1.00 0.99 1.87 1.88 72 0.99 1.03 2.01 2.03 84 1.05 1.03 2.24 2.19 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.49 -0.64 3.77 3.98 24 -0.49 -0.58 4.05 4.32 36 -0.40 -0.59 4.38 4.66 48 -0.34 -0.49 4.73 5.08 60 -0.44 -0.44 5.15 5.62 72 -0.46 -0.51 5.62 6.30 84 -0.61 -0.47 6.21 6.69 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.48 -0.40 4.08 4.15 24 -0.47 -0.24 4.62 4.65 36 -0.61 -0.35 5.21 5.19 48 -0.59 -0.27 5.78 5.83 60 -0.62 -0.41 6.30 6.57 72 -0.65 -0.44 7.07 7.04 84 -0.86 -0.41 7.69 7.67 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.20 -0.42 5.48 5.53 24 -0.44 -0.65 6.66 6.56 36 -0.41 -0.51 7.66 7.86 48 -0.61 -0.73 8.87 8.62 60 -0.60 -0.78 9.94 9.86 72 -0.70 -0.93 11.05 10.92 84 -0.77 -1.06 12.28 12.30