VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.07 1.00 7.99 7.89 24 0.96 0.91 9.38 9.30 36 0.48 1.30 11.31 11.77 48 0.69 0.82 13.45 13.90 60 0.82 0.30 15.88 15.66 72 -0.45 1.21 17.72 19.44 84 0.84 0.16 21.90 22.03 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.78 -0.80 8.73 9.37 24 -1.87 -2.68 10.70 11.38 36 -3.32 -2.55 13.36 14.32 48 -3.23 -3.01 17.58 17.71 60 -3.44 -3.55 20.92 21.65 72 -5.06 -3.29 25.00 25.67 84 -4.09 -4.68 30.56 29.03 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 4.28 5.64 13.14 13.56 24 7.28 5.47 17.78 17.36 36 7.60 7.24 21.63 22.01 48 9.30 8.56 28.33 26.38 60 10.49 10.07 32.96 31.55 72 10.11 10.75 38.12 38.45 84 11.76 10.59 46.72 42.55 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.08 -0.12 1.24 1.28 24 -0.12 -0.26 1.35 1.43 36 -0.22 -0.26 1.50 1.52 48 -0.21 -0.36 1.59 1.68 60 -0.33 -0.36 1.81 1.85 72 -0.33 -0.48 2.07 2.08 84 -0.47 -0.51 2.33 2.30 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.17 0.20 0.89 0.87 24 0.23 0.17 1.06 0.99 36 0.22 0.19 1.13 1.16 48 0.24 0.23 1.37 1.28 60 0.29 0.27 1.54 1.48 72 0.34 0.29 1.68 1.64 84 0.32 0.30 1.93 1.80 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.88 0.77 1.31 1.23 24 0.95 0.89 1.51 1.42 36 1.05 0.99 1.68 1.65 48 1.13 1.04 1.94 1.78 60 1.16 1.09 2.07 2.01 72 1.20 1.15 2.28 2.13 84 1.23 1.26 2.43 2.41 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.36 -0.51 3.83 3.95 24 -0.41 -0.35 4.12 4.18 36 -0.33 -0.33 4.46 4.62 48 -0.41 -0.33 4.92 5.01 60 -0.28 -0.41 5.32 5.64 72 -0.40 -0.34 5.86 6.13 84 -0.33 -0.39 6.45 6.70 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.50 -0.44 4.23 4.22 24 -0.44 -0.34 4.68 4.70 36 -0.65 -0.32 5.38 5.39 48 -0.40 -0.47 6.11 6.08 60 -0.54 -0.52 6.78 6.98 72 -0.65 -0.62 7.39 7.70 84 -0.62 -0.46 8.26 8.19 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.32 -0.14 5.32 5.49 24 -0.49 -0.49 6.48 6.46 36 -0.46 -0.44 7.64 7.72 48 -0.52 -0.68 8.85 8.65 60 -0.78 -0.42 9.88 9.91 72 -0.73 -0.79 11.04 10.92 84 -0.98 -0.51 12.91 12.19