VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.31 -0.14 8.59 8.14 24 0.23 0.20 9.84 10.10 36 -0.12 1.28 12.60 12.18 48 1.13 1.55 14.84 15.56 60 0.62 1.47 17.98 18.12 72 0.27 1.77 21.67 20.47 84 0.99 1.29 23.88 25.24 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.25 -2.33 10.27 9.83 24 -2.71 -3.31 11.45 12.36 36 -3.88 -2.29 16.28 15.73 48 -2.03 -2.30 19.87 20.85 60 -3.45 -1.95 24.45 25.78 72 -3.75 -2.36 31.32 29.63 84 -3.20 -3.29 34.54 37.06 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 2.58 4.78 12.98 13.46 24 7.78 5.57 18.40 17.69 36 7.78 9.40 24.16 24.00 48 12.05 10.58 31.07 30.02 60 11.24 13.11 35.88 36.61 72 12.12 12.50 45.03 42.23 84 13.06 11.94 49.73 52.59 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.27 -0.19 1.32 1.29 24 -0.31 -0.46 1.45 1.47 36 -0.51 -0.48 1.66 1.62 48 -0.51 -0.63 1.88 1.86 60 -0.66 -0.64 2.15 2.13 72 -0.66 -0.70 2.38 2.35 84 -0.69 -0.73 2.62 2.69 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.13 0.19 0.86 0.86 24 0.21 0.19 1.03 1.04 36 0.20 0.22 1.23 1.26 48 0.31 0.25 1.47 1.51 60 0.31 0.35 1.65 1.72 72 0.36 0.32 1.90 1.81 84 0.36 0.31 2.12 2.11 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.85 0.82 1.34 1.34 24 1.01 0.91 1.62 1.55 36 1.10 1.07 1.82 1.82 48 1.19 1.07 2.06 2.03 60 1.13 1.18 2.20 2.26 72 1.24 1.14 2.45 2.35 84 1.18 1.18 2.61 2.60 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.29 -0.57 3.83 4.07 24 -0.14 -0.46 4.21 4.48 36 -0.15 -0.43 4.72 4.93 48 -0.15 -0.41 5.06 5.61 60 -0.28 -0.43 5.69 6.10 72 -0.26 -0.72 6.12 6.62 84 -0.36 -0.61 6.55 7.32 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.61 -0.47 4.26 4.33 24 -0.47 -0.40 4.89 5.00 36 -0.55 -0.45 5.75 5.86 48 -0.46 -0.41 6.76 6.68 60 -0.54 -0.39 7.65 7.76 72 -0.52 -0.58 8.56 8.43 84 -0.76 -0.62 9.20 9.63 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.45 -0.24 5.00 5.55 24 -0.53 -0.49 6.38 6.62 36 -0.70 -0.43 7.68 7.92 48 -0.71 -0.65 9.30 9.21 60 -0.82 -0.51 10.13 10.48 72 -0.91 -0.77 11.80 11.57 84 -1.25 -0.84 12.82 13.44