VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.20 -0.05 7.99 7.94 24 -1.36 -0.97 9.52 9.56 36 -1.20 -0.07 11.74 11.78 48 -0.40 -0.62 13.90 14.23 60 -1.36 -1.02 16.89 17.65 72 -0.75 0.22 19.76 20.38 84 1.31 0.56 23.56 23.31 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.01 -2.47 10.36 9.48 24 -3.98 -4.05 12.12 12.44 36 -3.76 -3.60 15.71 15.67 48 -3.51 -3.79 19.17 19.90 60 -4.17 -4.54 24.15 25.22 72 -4.06 -3.37 28.27 29.64 84 -1.71 -3.42 34.86 34.13 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 2.19 3.46 13.42 12.96 24 5.76 3.85 17.63 17.88 36 7.23 6.88 24.19 22.41 48 9.10 8.37 29.65 29.83 60 9.68 7.83 36.27 36.32 72 9.98 11.13 43.07 43.10 84 12.93 9.89 51.74 49.50 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.14 -0.14 1.36 1.38 24 -0.18 -0.30 1.45 1.55 36 -0.28 -0.33 1.63 1.63 48 -0.32 -0.40 1.74 1.85 60 -0.35 -0.42 1.97 2.02 72 -0.40 -0.42 2.18 2.21 84 -0.37 -0.49 2.44 2.50 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.10 0.09 0.86 0.84 24 0.18 0.12 1.03 1.04 36 0.23 0.16 1.26 1.22 48 0.26 0.27 1.41 1.47 60 0.30 0.22 1.62 1.56 72 0.29 0.36 1.81 1.85 84 0.35 0.25 2.04 2.07 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.79 0.79 1.34 1.37 24 0.95 0.88 1.61 1.64 36 1.02 1.05 1.80 1.87 48 1.14 1.04 1.99 2.05 60 1.09 1.10 2.18 2.22 72 1.10 1.05 2.38 2.41 84 0.99 1.07 2.57 2.62 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.32 -0.50 3.91 3.88 24 -0.26 -0.39 4.16 4.38 36 -0.21 -0.37 4.46 4.62 48 -0.30 -0.37 4.87 5.03 60 -0.37 -0.50 5.26 5.71 72 -0.41 -0.49 5.99 6.32 84 -0.58 -0.47 6.56 6.84 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.58 -0.53 4.35 4.38 24 -0.43 -0.50 5.01 5.04 36 -0.55 -0.49 5.89 5.88 48 -0.48 -0.44 6.73 6.69 60 -0.65 -0.38 7.45 7.59 72 -0.57 -0.62 8.26 8.59 84 -0.84 -0.59 9.22 9.26 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.39 -0.41 5.46 5.57 24 -0.54 -0.70 6.61 6.86 36 -0.70 -0.74 7.88 7.86 48 -0.77 -1.05 9.03 9.24 60 -1.12 -1.02 10.62 10.89 72 -1.01 -1.29 12.16 12.24 84 -1.37 -1.02 13.94 13.79