VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.43 -0.77 7.08 7.96 24 -2.56 -1.79 9.13 9.51 36 -3.29 -2.87 11.37 11.91 48 -4.03 -3.11 14.27 14.37 60 -5.21 -4.26 17.54 17.25 72 -5.76 -4.67 20.30 20.80 84 -5.34 -4.05 23.81 23.66 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.25 -1.31 9.47 9.88 24 -2.30 -2.93 11.86 12.99 36 -2.80 -3.00 15.33 16.09 48 -2.58 -2.16 19.71 20.80 60 -3.38 -2.93 25.36 26.06 72 -3.32 -3.42 30.52 31.24 84 -4.64 -1.79 36.63 36.28 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 2.24 4.59 13.40 13.78 24 6.65 3.91 19.45 17.64 36 7.23 6.92 24.15 23.80 48 9.80 7.32 30.05 29.67 60 7.92 8.40 35.93 36.39 72 9.55 7.27 43.58 42.22 84 8.40 9.41 49.58 50.19 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.04 -0.04 1.33 1.39 24 -0.04 -0.07 1.44 1.49 36 -0.03 -0.02 1.60 1.61 48 0.02 0.00 1.78 1.77 60 0.06 0.04 1.98 1.98 72 0.06 0.01 2.24 2.21 84 0.00 0.02 2.53 2.52 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.15 0.16 0.82 0.88 24 0.30 0.14 1.05 1.07 36 0.31 0.27 1.21 1.28 48 0.43 0.31 1.42 1.46 60 0.45 0.43 1.67 1.71 72 0.52 0.38 1.96 1.92 84 0.40 0.46 2.11 2.18 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.73 0.66 1.40 1.37 24 0.81 0.64 1.64 1.58 36 0.76 0.65 1.79 1.76 48 0.75 0.53 1.97 1.95 60 0.63 0.45 2.21 2.22 72 0.52 0.38 2.47 2.36 84 0.55 0.33 2.66 2.64 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.38 -0.47 3.67 3.84 24 -0.26 -0.34 4.11 4.07 36 -0.21 -0.31 4.41 4.58 48 -0.27 -0.34 4.89 4.85 60 -0.34 -0.46 5.29 5.44 72 -0.45 -0.58 5.88 5.93 84 -0.58 -0.65 6.45 6.48 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.58 -0.66 4.22 4.27 24 -0.33 -0.60 4.79 4.98 36 -0.46 -0.52 5.62 5.72 48 -0.47 -0.61 6.45 6.79 60 -0.64 -0.75 7.49 7.68 72 -0.66 -0.84 8.64 8.49 84 -0.63 -0.93 9.70 9.70 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.36 -0.39 5.56 5.52 24 -0.64 -0.77 6.57 6.48 36 -0.68 -0.88 7.70 7.92 48 -0.99 -1.10 8.92 9.18 60 -1.39 -1.50 10.44 10.23 72 -1.60 -1.70 11.85 11.59 84 -1.59 -1.60 12.99 13.12