VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.31 -1.31 8.07 8.15 24 -3.68 -3.03 9.60 9.71 36 -5.56 -4.26 12.38 11.96 48 -5.70 -5.30 15.80 15.30 60 -7.05 -5.21 19.71 18.23 72 -6.48 -5.54 22.11 22.40 84 -6.07 -4.12 27.31 24.10 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.38 -1.85 10.26 9.88 24 -4.17 -4.11 12.49 12.93 36 -6.27 -5.00 17.02 16.83 48 -6.23 -5.65 21.72 21.98 60 -8.10 -6.21 27.35 26.79 72 -7.54 -5.91 32.59 33.57 84 -7.43 -5.24 40.00 36.59 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 2.25 4.03 14.14 13.48 24 6.14 3.61 19.66 18.16 36 5.05 5.37 25.12 25.60 48 6.17 5.51 32.80 32.26 60 4.64 6.32 40.32 39.51 72 5.93 5.93 46.02 47.24 84 4.99 7.12 55.30 52.55 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.10 -0.05 1.49 1.53 24 -0.08 -0.10 1.60 1.64 36 -0.09 -0.03 1.75 1.81 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.99 2.01 60 -0.10 -0.06 2.22 2.25 72 -0.11 -0.13 2.43 2.51 84 -0.22 -0.16 2.72 2.72 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.13 0.17 0.87 0.90 24 0.23 0.14 1.09 1.09 36 0.20 0.20 1.31 1.34 48 0.24 0.25 1.54 1.62 60 0.29 0.26 1.81 1.83 72 0.33 0.30 2.01 2.11 84 0.32 0.34 2.24 2.26 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.74 0.74 1.40 1.36 24 0.89 0.79 1.66 1.65 36 0.90 0.90 1.89 1.93 48 0.98 0.84 2.23 2.16 60 0.83 0.92 2.45 2.44 72 0.88 0.73 2.59 2.67 84 0.77 0.83 2.66 2.89 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.49 -0.61 3.87 3.91 24 -0.42 -0.45 4.17 4.22 36 -0.49 -0.44 4.56 4.67 48 -0.55 -0.47 5.04 5.16 60 -0.48 -0.58 5.76 5.77 72 -0.56 -0.64 6.25 6.31 84 -0.61 -0.60 6.85 6.81 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.69 -0.66 4.38 4.39 24 -0.51 -0.66 5.20 5.16 36 -0.72 -0.73 6.12 6.14 48 -0.70 -0.78 7.01 7.23 60 -0.86 -0.79 8.20 8.20 72 -0.82 -0.96 8.90 9.15 84 -0.99 -0.99 9.79 9.73 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2010 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.58 -0.43 5.73 5.45 24 -0.86 -0.61 6.99 6.96 36 -0.96 -0.83 8.25 8.48 48 -1.17 -1.06 9.93 9.93 60 -1.51 -1.19 11.46 11.09 72 -1.65 -1.51 12.86 12.52 84 -1.87 -1.50 13.94 13.63