VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.05 -1.81 8.43 8.82 24 -2.35 -1.31 9.25 9.89 36 -3.58 -2.69 12.30 12.00 48 -4.84 -2.88 15.11 14.45 60 -5.84 -4.73 18.46 18.77 72 -7.92 -5.86 23.03 22.06 84 -8.67 -6.54 25.85 27.79 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.13 -2.91 10.45 10.57 24 -3.27 -3.38 12.00 12.75 36 -5.12 -4.56 16.50 16.22 48 -5.98 -4.98 20.61 20.25 60 -7.00 -6.51 25.24 25.66 72 -8.65 -7.15 32.18 30.30 84 -10.83 -8.78 38.39 38.55 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 3.77 3.88 13.67 13.38 24 6.80 4.49 18.39 16.43 36 6.64 5.87 22.64 22.09 48 7.47 6.76 29.31 28.51 60 7.08 6.84 36.35 34.84 72 6.95 5.96 41.88 41.85 84 4.09 6.26 51.79 51.23 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.05 -0.08 1.29 1.44 24 -0.14 -0.15 1.42 1.54 36 -0.18 -0.22 1.59 1.68 48 -0.24 -0.23 1.74 1.88 60 -0.22 -0.24 1.94 2.04 72 -0.20 -0.33 2.16 2.26 84 -0.30 -0.26 2.42 2.51 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.19 0.22 0.90 0.88 24 0.31 0.20 1.07 1.09 36 0.33 0.31 1.31 1.28 48 0.43 0.36 1.52 1.50 60 0.43 0.44 1.74 1.75 72 0.52 0.41 2.02 1.96 84 0.42 0.48 2.20 2.33 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.78 0.76 1.28 1.26 24 0.84 0.78 1.49 1.45 36 0.88 0.87 1.71 1.67 48 0.97 0.90 1.96 1.86 60 0.95 1.00 2.12 2.12 72 1.02 0.95 2.37 2.26 84 0.90 1.04 2.46 2.49 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.33 -0.52 3.83 3.87 24 -0.34 -0.36 4.18 4.29 36 -0.31 -0.43 4.57 4.73 48 -0.44 -0.38 5.14 5.28 60 -0.47 -0.43 5.68 5.90 72 -0.56 -0.48 6.29 6.45 84 -0.54 -0.57 6.90 7.03 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.56 -0.55 4.36 4.30 24 -0.36 -0.47 4.90 4.99 36 -0.53 -0.42 5.82 5.70 48 -0.43 -0.65 6.72 6.61 60 -0.78 -0.62 7.52 7.51 72 -0.65 -0.85 8.54 8.30 84 -0.83 -0.64 9.44 9.47 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.56 -0.44 5.07 5.04 24 -0.70 -0.71 6.13 6.20 36 -0.86 -0.63 7.36 7.40 48 -0.93 -0.71 8.59 8.63 60 -1.34 -0.84 9.97 9.99 72 -1.31 -0.99 11.02 11.33 84 -1.50 -1.17 12.61 12.63