VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.15 0.05 8.68 8.47 24 -1.05 -0.14 10.60 10.14 36 -2.99 -1.45 13.11 12.76 48 -4.39 -2.77 16.76 15.88 60 -6.41 -5.05 20.71 20.26 72 -7.36 -5.69 24.59 24.10 84 -9.14 -5.75 29.58 28.69 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.40 -1.67 10.49 10.44 24 -1.62 -2.08 13.41 12.76 36 -2.72 -3.27 17.25 17.60 48 -4.24 -3.16 22.31 21.77 60 -4.40 -5.37 27.45 28.04 72 -5.89 -4.55 33.44 34.76 84 -6.04 -4.63 41.47 39.64 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 4.99 5.32 15.67 14.64 24 9.21 6.49 22.49 19.30 36 11.23 8.16 29.60 25.99 48 11.30 10.61 36.39 33.73 60 13.65 10.11 43.27 41.96 72 11.82 13.07 52.43 53.63 84 14.16 12.77 66.72 61.26 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.20 -0.07 1.34 1.32 24 0.08 -0.02 1.48 1.44 36 0.13 -0.08 1.69 1.61 48 0.06 0.01 1.92 1.84 60 0.19 -0.05 2.19 2.13 72 0.08 0.02 2.41 2.36 84 0.12 0.00 2.65 2.69 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.17 0.16 0.95 0.94 24 0.25 0.14 1.16 1.13 36 0.34 0.23 1.38 1.35 48 0.41 0.34 1.60 1.57 60 0.55 0.40 1.87 1.91 72 0.57 0.51 2.15 2.19 84 0.68 0.53 2.54 2.36 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.91 0.91 1.38 1.39 24 0.98 0.89 1.57 1.56 36 1.07 0.97 1.78 1.77 48 1.11 1.03 1.99 1.93 60 1.13 1.03 2.18 2.14 72 1.13 1.06 2.39 2.38 84 1.17 1.13 2.67 2.56 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.42 -0.52 3.91 3.90 24 -0.52 -0.43 4.30 4.27 36 -0.40 -0.45 4.72 4.88 48 -0.38 -0.33 5.41 5.41 60 -0.34 -0.20 6.12 6.17 72 -0.31 -0.22 6.86 6.94 84 -0.22 -0.30 7.40 7.70 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.75 -0.77 4.34 4.34 24 -0.63 -0.64 5.01 5.09 36 -0.81 -0.81 5.83 5.95 48 -0.87 -0.90 7.02 6.65 60 -1.01 -0.99 7.79 7.80 72 -1.13 -1.07 8.69 8.93 84 -1.10 -1.44 10.03 9.57 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.39 -0.23 5.60 5.82 24 -0.68 -0.64 6.91 7.09 36 -0.73 -0.83 8.02 8.63 48 -0.99 -1.09 9.86 9.90 60 -1.34 -1.44 11.49 11.50 72 -1.45 -1.86 12.89 13.83 84 -1.83 -1.86 15.81 15.13