VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -83.03 0.30 8.01 7.97 24 -0.34 0.47 8.95 8.92 36 -2.09 -0.35 10.42 10.07 48 -2.30 -2.33 11.82 12.04 60 -6.17 -93.31 14.62 13.02 72 -5.38 -6.32 16.39 15.84 84 -9.43 -4.30 19.66 19.05 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -1.95 -0.50 8.76 8.54 24 -1.45 -0.38 9.60 9.67 36 -2.33 -0.98 12.16 11.39 48 -2.47 -2.41 14.07 14.24 60 -6.24 -3.11 17.51 17.18 72 -5.32 -5.56 20.87 19.72 84 -7.97 -4.15 24.30 23.79 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 5.89 6.23 13.85 13.15 24 6.21 7.68 15.55 15.02 36 7.97 8.39 19.34 19.31 48 8.69 9.29 23.32 22.93 60 6.86 8.50 26.69 28.51 72 7.45 9.27 34.02 33.27 84 8.43 9.58 39.25 41.55 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.22 -0.05 1.29 1.13 24 0.13 0.16 1.37 1.35 36 0.23 0.06 1.59 1.45 48 0.18 0.15 1.64 1.66 60 0.19 0.14 1.81 1.76 72 0.19 0.19 1.94 1.95 84 0.29 0.14 2.18 2.09 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.23 0.22 0.84 0.88 24 0.18 0.13 0.92 0.90 36 0.20 0.24 1.01 1.03 48 0.28 0.25 1.08 1.12 60 0.28 0.25 1.18 1.26 72 0.28 0.35 1.34 1.38 84 0.38 0.31 1.51 1.55 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.85 0.86 1.21 1.24 24 0.87 0.96 1.35 1.39 36 1.08 1.02 1.55 1.52 48 1.07 1.16 1.69 1.75 60 1.22 1.13 1.88 1.90 72 1.22 1.38 2.04 2.12 84 1.39 1.30 2.23 2.22 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.62 -0.44 3.50 3.66 24 -0.51 -0.30 3.75 4.00 36 -0.49 -0.40 4.03 4.35 48 -0.36 -0.31 4.39 4.61 60 -0.35 -0.31 4.75 5.11 72 -0.43 -0.26 5.07 5.57 84 -0.39 -0.33 5.34 5.94 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.24 -0.21 3.84 3.94 24 -0.04 -0.06 4.16 4.38 36 -0.04 0.01 4.78 4.77 48 -0.08 0.15 5.31 5.44 60 -0.05 0.06 5.71 5.79 72 -0.14 0.06 6.14 6.30 84 -0.21 -0.29 6.81 6.76 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.08 -0.57 5.26 5.40 24 -0.26 -0.68 6.32 6.33 36 -0.32 -0.66 7.12 7.43 48 -0.57 -0.98 8.25 8.03 60 -0.88 -1.27 9.10 9.31 72 -1.18 -1.48 10.53 10.19 84 -1.33 -2.33 11.57 11.59