VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.45 1.10 8.43 8.15 24 1.71 1.62 9.79 9.13 36 -0.30 1.12 10.42 10.15 48 -1.42 -1.11 11.95 12.07 60 -4.23 -3.03 14.73 14.14 72 -5.33 -4.42 16.48 17.47 84 -6.03 -5.77 19.99 19.32 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.56 1.26 9.18 9.48 24 1.37 1.75 10.70 10.85 36 -0.09 1.10 12.58 12.82 48 -1.03 -0.41 15.47 16.03 60 -3.37 -2.24 19.43 18.68 72 -4.47 -3.50 21.75 23.36 84 -5.76 -4.48 27.08 25.93 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 8.27 10.93 15.23 16.30 24 10.91 12.89 18.33 20.11 36 12.66 13.84 22.72 23.65 48 13.17 14.68 26.75 27.86 60 11.94 13.79 30.96 31.48 72 10.83 12.90 34.33 36.67 84 9.91 11.87 41.52 41.71 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.21 0.00 1.25 1.24 24 0.18 0.07 1.36 1.39 36 0.20 0.07 1.47 1.49 48 0.19 0.09 1.64 1.61 60 0.18 0.09 1.82 1.75 72 0.23 0.05 1.96 1.96 84 0.12 0.05 2.16 2.10 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.28 0.37 0.89 0.93 24 0.28 0.31 0.96 1.01 36 0.32 0.32 1.08 1.11 48 0.35 0.40 1.21 1.26 60 0.37 0.40 1.36 1.37 72 0.38 0.41 1.47 1.53 84 0.36 0.43 1.63 1.63 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.92 0.92 1.30 1.28 24 0.96 1.05 1.43 1.48 36 1.17 1.15 1.68 1.66 48 1.27 1.27 1.90 1.86 60 1.35 1.35 2.05 2.07 72 1.37 1.41 2.17 2.18 84 1.45 1.44 2.35 2.32 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.44 -0.56 3.74 3.94 24 -0.40 -0.39 3.94 4.18 36 -0.33 -0.41 4.22 4.47 48 -0.34 -0.36 4.58 4.96 60 -0.22 -0.41 4.96 5.25 72 -0.26 -0.27 5.30 5.84 84 -0.19 -0.33 5.91 6.15 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.49 -0.29 4.04 3.95 24 -0.44 -0.20 4.42 4.43 36 -0.39 -0.23 4.95 4.91 48 -0.34 -0.11 5.44 5.64 60 -0.30 -0.10 6.18 6.15 72 -0.42 -0.05 6.76 6.86 84 -0.37 -0.13 7.44 7.27 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.10 -0.26 5.44 5.45 24 -0.39 -0.52 6.40 6.48 36 -0.29 -0.59 7.67 7.44 48 -0.41 -0.91 8.65 8.75 60 -0.51 -0.90 9.69 9.66 72 -0.66 -1.02 10.58 11.06 84 -0.58 -1.26 11.87 11.64