VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.51 -1.20 8.91 8.73 24 -1.64 -1.07 9.69 9.81 36 -2.23 -0.06 12.21 11.93 48 -2.33 -1.64 14.39 15.51 60 -4.21 -2.56 19.35 18.31 72 -5.83 -2.84 21.93 22.74 84 -5.33 -5.56 26.36 26.85 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.89 -3.40 10.82 10.49 24 -3.61 -4.31 12.46 12.83 36 -4.65 -3.21 16.75 15.92 48 -4.78 -4.73 21.07 21.64 60 -6.44 -5.48 28.64 26.12 72 -7.97 -6.25 33.63 33.28 84 -8.21 -7.77 41.45 39.94 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.45 2.33 13.60 12.99 24 5.65 3.82 17.74 16.50 36 7.24 7.59 23.11 22.65 48 10.10 8.10 29.04 28.83 60 8.09 7.46 38.47 35.22 72 7.84 8.72 44.36 45.65 84 7.69 7.28 55.65 53.68 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.09 -0.15 1.50 1.47 24 -0.13 -0.19 1.62 1.67 36 -0.17 -0.21 1.83 1.77 48 -0.27 -0.28 2.01 2.10 60 -0.30 -0.31 2.41 2.31 72 -0.24 -0.29 2.54 2.70 84 -0.15 -0.27 2.99 2.98 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.11 0.12 0.89 0.86 24 0.19 0.10 1.07 1.01 36 0.21 0.18 1.27 1.23 48 0.33 0.23 1.49 1.46 60 0.32 0.31 1.83 1.72 72 0.36 0.31 2.06 2.01 84 0.33 0.32 2.34 2.29 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.77 0.74 1.29 1.27 24 0.89 0.87 1.53 1.56 36 1.05 1.00 1.82 1.81 48 1.12 1.09 2.05 2.05 60 1.17 1.17 2.29 2.26 72 1.18 1.16 2.49 2.46 84 1.16 1.10 2.76 2.70 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.34 -0.49 3.93 3.96 24 -0.25 -0.32 4.18 4.32 36 -0.21 -0.20 4.57 4.74 48 -0.35 -0.15 5.12 5.40 60 -0.25 -0.21 5.87 5.92 72 -0.32 -0.21 6.24 6.76 84 -0.38 -0.24 7.08 7.03 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.60 -0.54 4.41 4.31 24 -0.47 -0.38 5.05 4.85 36 -0.54 -0.46 5.94 5.75 48 -0.28 -0.30 6.86 6.73 60 -0.40 -0.39 7.89 7.47 72 -0.44 -0.33 8.77 8.67 84 -0.67 -0.50 10.03 9.51 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.20 -0.13 4.98 5.08 24 -0.29 -0.30 5.98 6.17 36 -0.19 -0.09 7.36 7.33 48 -0.14 -0.15 8.74 9.04 60 -0.37 -0.08 10.33 10.11 72 -0.24 -0.26 11.64 11.96 84 -0.53 -0.27 13.27 13.21