VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -3.46 -1.06 8.91 8.41 24 -3.74 -1.93 10.36 9.63 36 -4.35 -2.76 12.65 12.04 48 -5.77 -4.28 15.02 15.85 60 -8.09 -7.24 20.10 19.03 72 -9.11 -8.49 23.33 22.94 84 -9.87 -8.48 26.68 26.68 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.93 -2.43 11.15 10.11 24 -4.87 -3.78 13.43 13.08 36 -5.60 -4.62 17.24 16.76 48 -6.28 -5.58 21.20 22.07 60 -8.39 -8.34 28.04 27.22 72 -9.77 -9.45 33.24 33.09 84 -10.84 -9.23 39.64 38.88 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.47 2.98 13.70 12.68 24 4.70 3.31 18.27 16.92 36 5.46 5.31 23.34 21.91 48 7.24 5.22 27.81 27.80 60 5.43 3.47 33.56 33.04 72 4.02 3.13 40.44 41.79 84 2.34 3.79 48.55 49.53 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.13 -0.11 1.43 1.44 24 -0.21 -0.19 1.56 1.65 36 -0.23 -0.22 1.74 1.81 48 -0.23 -0.22 1.91 1.99 60 -0.20 -0.21 2.10 2.25 72 -0.20 -0.15 2.37 2.55 84 -0.29 -0.20 2.76 2.81 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.13 0.14 0.88 0.86 24 0.24 0.15 1.04 1.07 36 0.28 0.22 1.29 1.28 48 0.37 0.27 1.49 1.51 60 0.38 0.27 1.65 1.68 72 0.37 0.32 1.87 1.90 84 0.37 0.34 2.18 2.18 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.73 0.75 1.37 1.37 24 0.88 0.79 1.64 1.61 36 0.90 0.93 1.90 1.81 48 0.96 0.85 2.15 2.13 60 0.91 0.95 2.32 2.37 72 0.92 0.92 2.59 2.56 84 0.89 0.93 2.79 2.80 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.25 -0.47 3.74 3.87 24 -0.24 -0.41 4.04 4.15 36 -0.18 -0.38 4.40 4.55 48 -0.24 -0.43 4.82 5.17 60 -0.21 -0.41 5.30 5.67 72 -0.16 -0.54 6.02 6.34 84 -0.30 -0.28 6.60 6.93 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.67 -0.53 4.29 4.34 24 -0.42 -0.45 4.94 5.06 36 -0.59 -0.57 5.92 5.87 48 -0.61 -0.61 6.69 6.76 60 -0.78 -0.77 7.63 7.55 72 -0.79 -0.78 8.47 8.57 84 -0.93 -0.78 9.53 9.34 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.17 -0.16 5.03 5.18 24 -0.31 -0.33 6.22 6.27 36 -0.42 -0.38 7.38 7.37 48 -0.43 -0.48 8.13 8.58 60 -0.60 -0.52 9.11 9.83 72 -0.50 -0.40 10.44 10.96 84 -0.37 -0.34 11.88 12.33