VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ NORTH AMERICAN MODEL (NAM) ----------------------------------- # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -2.89 -0.24 9.28 9.45 24 -2.99 -0.86 11.36 11.11 36 -3.50 -2.13 13.70 13.42 48 -3.77 -2.44 17.58 16.43 60 -4.28 -3.44 20.66 22.18 72 -5.67 -3.10 26.51 23.96 84 -5.76 -3.42 28.84 29.95 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -4.08 -1.35 11.32 10.79 24 -2.88 -2.11 14.15 13.97 36 -3.19 -1.93 18.24 18.61 48 -2.67 -1.49 24.93 23.94 60 -2.81 -2.52 29.66 31.77 72 -4.26 -1.91 38.70 39.36 84 -4.40 -2.61 47.05 46.44 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 1.42 3.78 15.01 14.09 24 7.62 5.37 20.84 19.89 36 9.52 10.24 27.41 26.81 48 13.19 11.64 36.34 34.71 60 12.75 12.39 42.54 43.61 72 12.26 13.05 53.09 52.98 84 11.19 12.21 64.49 61.58 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.12 -0.09 1.55 1.59 24 -0.14 -0.13 1.77 1.78 36 -0.13 -0.09 2.05 2.03 48 -0.14 -0.06 2.25 2.32 60 -0.08 -0.11 2.49 2.64 72 -0.08 -0.03 3.01 3.01 84 0.07 -0.02 3.37 3.48 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.12 0.14 0.95 0.98 24 0.32 0.13 1.22 1.22 36 0.32 0.33 1.45 1.50 48 0.46 0.40 1.79 1.76 60 0.44 0.43 2.03 2.05 72 0.45 0.43 2.50 2.40 84 0.46 0.39 2.77 2.67 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 0.76 0.71 1.38 1.31 24 0.95 0.83 1.64 1.56 36 1.02 1.01 1.92 1.94 48 1.18 1.00 2.21 2.17 60 1.08 1.13 2.43 2.39 72 1.19 1.04 2.66 2.67 84 1.14 1.09 2.85 2.93 # ** NCEP/USA NAM MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.35 -0.46 3.78 3.93 24 -0.31 -0.43 4.17 4.41 36 -0.37 -0.40 4.56 4.88 48 -0.48 -0.53 5.16 5.34 60 -0.56 -0.59 5.52 6.19 72 -0.52 -0.67 6.64 6.67 84 -0.56 -0.57 7.16 7.55 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.65 -0.62 4.56 4.52 24 -0.50 -0.77 5.29 5.34 36 -0.83 -0.81 6.24 6.32 48 -0.70 -0.98 7.41 7.30 60 -1.23 -1.13 8.43 8.32 72 -1.28 -1.32 9.57 9.47 84 -1.47 -1.58 10.91 10.67 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2009 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 12 -0.27 -0.17 5.34 5.17 24 -0.48 -0.60 6.39 6.62 36 -0.70 -0.45 7.97 7.66 48 -0.99 -0.88 9.14 8.99 60 -1.18 -0.94 10.69 10.69 72 -1.55 -1.17 12.02 12.20 84 -1.75 -1.54 14.36 13.50