VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 20.3 21.2 48 -0.2 -0.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 28.1 29.2 72 -0.1 -0.2 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 36.1 37.0 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.8 2.9 0.9 0.9 44.8 45.9 120 -0.1 -0.2 3.8 3.8 0.9 0.9 53.3 54.9 144 -0.1 -0.2 4.7 4.7 0.9 0.8 60.6 62.1 168 -0.1 -0.2 5.5 5.5 0.8 0.8 66.3 67.7 192 -0.3 -0.3 6.3 6.3 0.8 0.8 71.0 73.0 216 -0.4 -0.5 6.9 6.9 0.7 0.7 74.7 76.1 240 -0.4 -0.5 7.3 7.3 0.7 0.7 77.0 78.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.3 6.8 6.8 1.0 1.0 13.7 13.9 48 0.4 -0.2 13.1 12.7 1.0 1.0 21.4 21.3 72 2.1 1.6 21.3 20.5 1.0 1.0 29.5 29.1 96 2.9 2.5 31.4 30.9 0.9 0.9 37.4 37.5 120 3.5 2.9 42.9 43.0 0.9 0.9 45.1 45.7 144 4.6 4.1 54.5 54.1 0.9 0.9 52.3 52.5 168 5.0 5.0 64.8 65.2 0.8 0.8 58.2 58.3 192 4.6 4.8 75.2 76.2 0.8 0.8 63.0 63.9 216 4.5 4.5 82.9 84.0 0.8 0.7 66.8 67.3 240 4.9 4.6 88.7 88.9 0.7 0.7 69.5 70.1 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.0 2.8 9.6 9.5 1.0 1.0 11.3 11.5 48 5.5 5.2 18.5 18.3 1.0 1.0 18.0 18.0 72 8.7 8.6 29.8 29.4 1.0 1.0 25.1 25.0 96 10.3 10.4 43.0 42.7 1.0 1.0 32.3 32.4 120 11.3 11.2 58.0 58.9 0.9 0.9 39.1 39.9 144 12.8 12.8 73.5 74.4 0.9 0.9 45.5 46.2 168 13.7 14.0 89.3 90.2 0.8 0.8 51.2 51.6 192 14.0 14.1 104.8 106.9 0.8 0.8 56.1 57.0 216 12.5 11.8 117.2 119.2 0.8 0.7 60.1 61.1 240 12.5 11.4 125.8 127.4 0.7 0.7 62.9 64.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.3 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 192 0.3 0.3 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 0.3 0.3 3.6 3.7 0.7 0.7 240 0.3 0.3 3.8 3.9 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.9 0.7 0.8 168 0.0 0.1 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.2 3.5 3.6 0.7 0.6 240 -0.2 -0.2 3.7 3.6 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 3.0 3.0 48 -0.4 -0.4 4.5 4.4 72 -0.5 -0.5 6.0 5.9 96 -0.7 -0.7 7.6 7.5 120 -0.8 -0.8 9.1 9.3 144 -0.9 -0.9 10.7 10.7 168 -1.0 -1.0 12.0 12.0 192 -1.0 -1.0 13.1 13.2 216 -1.0 -1.0 13.9 14.1 240 -0.9 -1.0 14.5 14.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.4 4.3 4.3 48 -0.7 -0.6 6.4 6.4 72 -0.8 -0.8 8.6 8.5 96 -1.0 -1.0 10.8 10.8 120 -1.2 -1.2 13.2 13.4 144 -1.3 -1.3 15.4 15.7 168 -1.3 -1.3 17.7 17.7 192 -1.4 -1.4 19.6 19.8 216 -1.4 -1.5 21.2 21.5 240 -1.4 -1.5 22.2 22.5 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.0 -0.8 3.9 3.9 0.9 0.9 34.5 34.0 48 -1.6 -1.3 5.5 5.4 0.9 0.9 41.0 40.8 72 -2.9 -2.6 7.0 6.6 0.9 0.9 44.2 43.7 96 -3.7 -3.5 8.1 7.9 0.8 0.8 46.8 46.8 120 -4.8 -4.7 9.4 9.1 0.8 0.8 49.4 49.4 144 -6.1 -6.0 10.9 10.6 0.8 0.8 52.0 51.6 168 -6.9 -6.6 12.0 11.6 0.8 0.8 54.3 54.5 192 -7.2 -7.2 13.4 12.7 0.7 0.8 56.7 56.9 216 -7.8 -8.0 14.3 14.2 0.7 0.7 62.4 62.3 240 -8.4 -8.3 14.9 15.2 0.7 0.7 63.8 64.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.5 5.0 5.1 0.9 0.9 29.6 29.7 48 0.3 0.9 7.4 7.2 0.9 0.9 35.9 36.1 72 -0.6 0.1 9.1 9.1 0.9 0.9 39.9 40.2 96 -0.9 -0.2 11.1 10.9 0.9 0.9 43.4 43.5 120 -1.4 -0.7 13.0 12.8 0.9 0.9 47.0 47.0 144 -2.4 -1.5 15.4 14.8 0.8 0.9 50.9 50.6 168 -2.7 -1.6 17.6 16.8 0.8 0.8 54.3 53.6 192 -3.0 -1.9 19.8 19.1 0.8 0.8 57.5 57.0 216 -5.2 -4.2 22.2 21.4 0.8 0.8 61.3 60.4 240 -7.0 -6.0 24.4 24.0 0.8 0.8 63.5 62.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 192 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 72 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 96 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 120 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 144 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 168 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 192 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.7 48 0.1 0.0 2.4 2.3 72 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.7 96 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1 120 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.4 144 -0.1 0.0 3.8 3.7 168 -0.1 -0.1 4.1 4.0 192 -0.2 -0.2 4.4 4.3 216 -0.1 -0.2 4.8 4.6 240 -0.1 -0.2 5.0 4.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.5 4.1 4.2 48 -0.8 -0.9 5.4 5.5 72 -1.0 -1.1 6.3 6.4 96 -1.2 -1.3 7.1 7.2 120 -1.4 -1.4 7.9 8.0 144 -1.4 -1.5 8.8 8.8 168 -1.5 -1.5 9.5 9.5 192 -1.6 -1.6 10.2 10.2 216 -1.6 -1.5 10.9 10.8 240 -1.6 -1.5 11.5 11.5 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 19.3 19.2 48 0.1 0.2 2.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 28.5 28.5 72 0.1 0.2 3.8 3.7 0.9 0.9 37.2 37.4 96 0.2 0.2 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.9 45.6 45.9 120 0.3 0.4 6.8 6.5 0.8 0.9 53.9 53.3 144 0.4 0.5 8.2 7.8 0.8 0.8 60.4 59.8 168 0.6 0.6 9.3 9.0 0.7 0.8 65.5 64.9 192 0.8 0.8 10.2 10.2 0.7 0.7 69.1 68.7 216 1.0 1.1 10.9 11.0 0.6 0.6 71.8 71.0 240 1.1 1.2 11.3 11.9 0.6 0.6 73.6 73.7 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.3 0.3 10.4 10.3 1.0 1.0 12.9 12.9 48 -0.1 0.3 19.8 19.5 1.0 1.0 20.3 20.2 72 -0.4 0.0 31.6 31.4 1.0 1.0 27.7 27.5 96 -0.1 0.1 46.4 45.9 0.9 0.9 35.1 34.8 120 0.7 1.4 62.8 61.9 0.9 0.9 41.9 41.4 144 1.2 2.1 79.5 76.2 0.8 0.8 48.0 47.2 168 1.6 2.2 93.6 89.2 0.8 0.8 53.3 52.1 192 2.3 2.8 106.6 104.4 0.7 0.7 57.0 56.7 216 2.4 3.2 115.0 116.2 0.7 0.7 59.8 59.6 240 2.2 2.9 121.4 126.8 0.6 0.6 61.9 62.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.6 3.6 13.1 13.2 1.0 1.0 10.1 10.1 48 6.0 6.8 25.2 24.8 1.0 1.0 15.9 15.8 72 7.4 8.2 40.2 40.0 1.0 1.0 22.1 22.1 96 8.8 9.5 59.7 59.3 0.9 0.9 28.7 28.6 120 10.0 11.5 81.5 80.6 0.9 0.9 35.2 34.8 144 10.2 12.2 104.1 99.8 0.8 0.9 41.1 40.4 168 9.2 11.8 123.4 117.5 0.8 0.8 46.1 45.0 192 9.1 12.2 141.8 139.5 0.7 0.7 50.0 49.6 216 7.4 10.5 153.8 156.4 0.7 0.7 52.8 52.7 240 7.2 8.8 163.0 171.0 0.6 0.6 55.1 55.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.8 2.7 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.3 3.7 3.6 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.3 4.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.2 4.4 4.4 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.1 4.7 4.7 0.6 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.3 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 144 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.2 3.6 3.5 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.1 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.1 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 48 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.8 72 -0.1 -0.1 7.8 7.8 96 -0.1 -0.1 9.9 9.8 120 -0.2 -0.2 11.8 11.8 144 -0.3 -0.2 13.7 13.5 168 -0.4 -0.3 15.3 15.0 192 -0.4 -0.3 16.6 16.5 216 -0.5 -0.5 17.5 17.4 240 -0.5 -0.5 18.2 18.4 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.7 4.7 48 -0.3 -0.2 7.2 7.1 72 -0.4 -0.3 9.9 9.8 96 -0.6 -0.5 12.9 12.8 120 -0.6 -0.5 15.9 15.9 144 -0.7 -0.6 18.9 18.5 168 -0.8 -0.6 21.5 20.8 192 -0.8 -0.7 23.5 23.3 216 -0.8 -0.8 25.0 25.0 240 -0.8 -0.8 26.3 26.5 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.71 -3.81 8.76 8.45 48 -5.35 -5.24 12.12 11.98 72 -3.86 -3.37 15.97 16.20 96 -2.35 -1.71 20.76 21.11 120 -3.35 -2.66 26.05 26.76 144 -3.58 -4.02 31.08 31.38 168 -4.32 -5.18 39.74 37.17 192 -6.64 -4.73 48.53 48.22 216 -9.87 -5.68 53.69 53.50 240 -6.25 -5.61 58.42 57.27 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.13 -2.24 8.75 9.41 48 -1.64 -3.02 13.63 14.40 72 -0.26 -1.04 20.75 21.04 96 2.62 1.80 29.73 29.58 120 2.74 1.53 38.33 39.21 144 3.47 0.45 46.33 47.86 168 3.51 0.75 60.30 58.75 192 1.49 1.91 74.83 77.54 216 -0.72 0.05 87.77 88.63 240 1.04 2.26 96.56 97.96 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.21 3.62 13.33 13.67 48 5.62 5.20 21.04 21.73 72 9.35 8.61 33.86 32.53 96 13.34 12.92 46.20 45.33 120 14.92 14.35 60.58 60.83 144 16.45 14.22 73.54 75.08 168 16.97 13.13 92.96 92.42 192 14.53 14.68 114.78 119.64 216 9.88 12.68 135.35 135.86 240 10.94 12.64 150.45 148.74 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.01 1.38 1.38 48 0.14 -0.03 1.64 1.64 72 0.15 -0.02 1.93 1.94 96 0.19 0.01 2.33 2.27 120 0.17 0.05 2.71 2.73 144 0.26 0.07 3.21 3.09 168 0.34 0.17 3.80 3.74 192 0.31 0.16 4.65 4.56 216 0.46 0.16 5.43 5.17 240 0.62 0.15 5.88 5.65 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.17 0.87 0.90 48 0.25 0.24 1.16 1.19 72 0.29 0.33 1.43 1.48 96 0.37 0.42 1.79 1.81 120 0.46 0.43 2.18 2.18 144 0.54 0.44 2.50 2.58 168 0.61 0.52 3.03 2.98 192 0.61 0.55 3.49 3.66 216 0.53 0.59 4.05 4.03 240 0.52 0.54 4.38 4.27 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.56 1.12 1.15 48 0.56 0.66 1.46 1.52 72 0.67 0.64 1.78 1.80 96 0.63 0.66 1.98 2.04 120 0.63 0.70 2.24 2.28 144 0.67 0.71 2.43 2.51 168 0.60 0.70 2.62 2.62 192 0.62 0.73 2.83 2.86 216 0.53 0.56 2.93 3.05 240 0.62 0.55 3.13 3.11 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.47 3.95 3.96 48 -0.20 -0.59 4.63 4.58 72 -0.34 -0.84 5.50 5.51 96 -0.47 -1.03 6.27 6.48 120 -0.47 -1.08 6.83 7.41 144 -0.56 -1.10 7.83 8.18 168 -0.67 -1.12 8.95 9.21 192 -0.56 -1.47 9.99 10.31 216 -0.73 -1.68 10.41 10.90 240 -1.02 -1.80 11.00 11.10 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.50 4.39 4.39 48 -0.76 -0.75 5.42 5.40 72 -0.94 -1.02 6.69 6.54 96 -1.18 -1.33 7.94 7.96 120 -1.35 -1.45 9.13 9.48 144 -1.38 -1.34 10.50 10.22 168 -1.18 -1.41 12.38 12.29 192 -1.14 -1.46 13.84 14.45 216 -1.21 -1.55 15.63 15.91 240 -1.62 -1.76 16.40 16.73 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.74 6.07 5.83 48 -1.19 -1.19 8.33 7.95 72 -1.42 -1.67 10.38 10.30 96 -1.75 -1.87 12.44 11.97 120 -2.15 -2.01 14.66 14.44 144 -2.30 -2.09 17.14 16.58 168 -2.20 -1.98 20.20 19.76 192 -2.14 -1.82 23.25 23.26 216 -2.27 -2.55 26.00 25.39 240 -2.14 -2.65 27.82 26.86 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.05 -2.27 8.29 7.55 48 -4.29 -2.23 11.76 11.11 72 -2.94 0.11 16.83 16.72 96 -1.29 1.19 24.72 25.64 120 1.78 4.90 35.39 36.43 144 7.52 12.78 47.86 48.47 168 7.15 16.18 53.87 55.08 192 8.51 15.41 59.64 59.25 216 8.19 15.35 64.30 64.52 240 13.37 15.78 68.32 68.12 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.47 10.98 10.17 48 1.60 3.14 16.47 15.69 72 3.71 7.46 25.14 25.36 96 5.59 9.19 36.74 37.84 120 6.33 12.93 51.92 54.52 144 17.15 22.74 72.34 70.52 168 17.96 31.54 86.87 86.22 192 16.96 29.34 97.37 99.51 216 19.05 24.40 105.50 107.39 240 21.42 21.48 109.58 109.94 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 6.30 6.20 14.25 13.85 48 12.49 13.99 23.73 24.11 72 15.53 20.82 34.33 38.43 96 17.30 23.28 49.09 51.77 120 22.38 24.52 69.08 68.50 144 33.12 38.26 92.45 91.30 168 33.89 43.88 114.27 116.14 192 33.78 47.96 130.73 137.83 216 36.41 39.76 142.26 147.24 240 37.55 32.81 147.38 151.57 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.47 1.07 1.18 48 0.41 0.61 1.33 1.46 72 0.44 0.73 1.69 1.77 96 0.52 0.81 2.03 2.17 120 0.45 0.81 2.64 2.69 144 0.51 0.68 3.32 3.23 168 0.81 1.15 3.67 3.99 192 0.92 1.11 4.30 4.59 216 0.68 0.87 4.55 4.94 240 0.44 0.59 4.59 4.94 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.21 0.88 0.80 48 0.41 0.41 1.22 1.15 72 0.46 0.58 1.62 1.65 96 0.47 0.58 2.07 2.01 120 0.53 0.62 2.59 2.47 144 0.76 0.80 3.05 2.97 168 0.93 1.01 3.57 3.59 192 0.81 0.88 4.18 4.19 216 0.82 0.71 4.17 4.36 240 0.71 0.62 4.36 4.47 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.38 1.30 1.27 48 0.45 0.48 1.75 1.76 72 0.52 0.61 2.31 2.27 96 0.42 0.59 2.78 2.77 120 0.28 0.38 3.39 3.30 144 0.22 0.11 3.81 3.91 168 0.10 -0.02 4.02 4.04 192 -0.12 -0.11 4.43 4.17 216 -0.11 -0.17 4.31 4.38 240 -0.30 -0.29 4.43 4.47 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.50 3.91 3.66 48 -0.49 -0.55 4.67 4.44 72 -0.60 -0.69 5.81 5.50 96 -0.73 -0.69 6.84 6.63 120 -0.56 -0.80 8.32 7.75 144 -0.88 -0.91 9.29 9.31 168 -1.01 -1.15 9.72 9.62 192 -0.94 -1.15 10.62 10.20 216 -1.21 -1.17 10.32 10.24 240 -0.98 -1.20 10.82 10.29 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.63 4.47 4.22 48 -0.56 -0.77 5.72 5.68 72 -0.58 -0.85 7.80 7.65 96 -0.71 -0.79 9.48 9.68 120 -0.80 -0.87 11.60 11.56 144 -0.92 -1.37 13.70 14.03 168 -1.06 -1.80 15.15 15.17 192 -0.87 -1.54 16.56 16.84 216 -1.32 -1.90 16.91 16.97 240 -1.20 -1.88 17.29 17.07 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.58 5.49 5.09 48 -0.94 -0.68 7.44 6.93 72 -0.89 -0.70 9.92 9.50 96 -0.96 -0.68 12.41 12.57 120 -1.18 -1.27 14.97 14.91 144 -1.26 -2.07 18.33 18.51 168 -1.50 -2.10 20.47 20.82 192 -1.03 -1.55 23.53 23.62 216 -1.37 -1.72 24.37 24.28 240 -1.63 -2.13 24.86 24.67 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.91 -2.30 9.01 8.67 48 -3.44 -2.56 12.37 11.34 72 -0.90 0.73 15.81 15.31 96 -0.57 1.76 20.92 21.22 120 -1.64 1.32 26.77 28.31 144 -2.05 0.20 33.83 33.63 168 -1.87 1.86 39.12 35.70 192 -1.28 3.78 43.39 40.45 216 -1.56 3.22 49.00 44.78 240 -1.36 2.37 51.03 51.11 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.53 -1.99 13.19 12.26 48 -2.22 -0.95 16.66 15.44 72 2.22 3.50 21.89 20.95 96 4.75 5.99 29.75 29.07 120 5.80 7.33 38.05 38.39 144 6.24 6.83 46.38 48.89 168 6.76 8.02 53.48 54.11 192 8.70 11.14 61.72 60.50 216 8.95 12.46 68.78 67.69 240 9.48 11.76 73.34 72.84 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.08 -0.08 20.66 18.91 48 1.54 4.66 25.41 25.04 72 8.35 11.54 33.41 33.95 96 12.69 16.58 43.80 46.32 120 15.34 18.09 56.08 57.28 144 18.21 21.39 67.95 72.42 168 20.92 23.90 79.65 83.05 192 25.13 28.39 93.57 92.29 216 23.62 27.13 104.64 107.94 240 23.25 27.60 112.58 117.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 -0.07 1.42 1.54 48 0.09 0.01 1.71 1.83 72 0.21 0.08 1.99 2.17 96 0.39 0.28 2.40 2.58 120 0.52 0.41 2.94 3.16 144 0.66 0.44 3.42 3.72 168 0.67 0.51 3.94 4.00 192 0.90 0.68 4.20 4.39 216 0.90 0.96 4.43 4.75 240 1.01 0.84 4.82 4.91 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.08 1.02 1.00 48 0.18 0.20 1.26 1.25 72 0.30 0.29 1.54 1.57 96 0.42 0.38 1.89 1.94 120 0.54 0.51 2.27 2.30 144 0.61 0.60 2.64 2.74 168 0.68 0.67 2.98 3.03 192 0.76 0.69 3.32 3.28 216 0.77 0.70 3.54 3.69 240 0.82 0.77 3.73 3.91 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.34 1.36 1.35 48 0.22 0.43 1.71 1.74 72 0.30 0.55 1.99 2.08 96 0.34 0.55 2.33 2.50 120 0.30 0.57 2.70 2.82 144 0.32 0.58 3.07 3.23 168 0.43 0.63 3.26 3.38 192 0.45 0.59 3.43 3.49 216 0.25 0.32 3.49 3.62 240 0.12 0.37 3.73 3.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.42 3.96 4.04 48 -0.65 -0.46 4.65 4.76 72 -0.82 -0.58 5.55 5.64 96 -0.91 -0.62 6.47 6.49 120 -1.06 -0.55 7.36 7.51 144 -1.05 -0.59 8.09 8.35 168 -0.97 -0.66 8.91 8.79 192 -1.09 -0.81 9.06 9.02 216 -1.24 -0.98 9.75 9.46 240 -1.08 -0.78 10.01 10.05 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.49 4.55 4.68 48 -0.87 -0.77 5.76 5.83 72 -1.10 -1.00 7.20 7.22 96 -1.21 -1.11 8.41 8.52 120 -1.41 -1.33 9.74 10.02 144 -1.27 -1.22 10.76 11.19 168 -1.43 -1.33 11.67 11.66 192 -1.67 -1.72 12.25 11.99 216 -1.82 -1.99 12.95 12.84 240 -1.90 -1.96 13.85 13.74 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.46 6.57 6.71 48 -1.22 -0.67 8.83 8.76 72 -1.33 -0.98 10.44 10.71 96 -1.46 -1.04 12.13 12.54 120 -1.43 -1.00 13.94 14.42 144 -1.42 -0.85 15.60 16.16 168 -1.51 -0.92 16.87 17.08 192 -1.51 -1.30 18.17 18.37 216 -1.42 -1.41 19.47 20.08 240 -1.50 -1.01 20.94 21.89 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.01 -7.46 9.24 11.03 48 -5.68 -5.88 10.11 12.25 72 -2.65 -3.09 12.81 17.09 96 -3.51 -2.79 18.88 22.44 120 -3.97 -0.40 26.01 34.42 144 -3.58 -1.10 31.35 39.18 168 -3.86 0.38 36.55 49.46 192 0.41 0.39 44.52 57.19 216 3.29 4.70 50.48 69.87 240 3.05 8.97 50.25 77.81 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.04 -9.73 12.17 14.18 48 -8.26 -9.09 14.26 17.67 72 -5.79 -6.87 19.54 25.35 96 -5.78 -7.87 28.18 35.65 120 -6.70 -5.26 40.01 52.42 144 -8.09 -7.93 45.79 63.68 168 -9.34 -8.04 52.83 72.11 192 -2.02 -1.90 61.54 80.29 216 1.67 -0.71 70.34 94.92 240 0.43 0.25 72.07 106.32 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.56 -7.01 12.52 17.00 48 -1.19 -5.37 18.50 23.08 72 2.70 -2.75 25.99 33.38 96 3.18 -6.06 41.19 49.09 120 2.02 -5.77 55.15 68.78 144 -2.34 -8.05 65.43 88.03 168 -4.84 -11.33 78.12 97.13 192 4.51 -11.63 88.19 107.30 216 8.00 -4.06 95.14 128.50 240 7.74 -6.50 105.71 138.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.04 1.16 1.09 48 -0.05 -0.01 1.28 1.33 72 -0.12 -0.05 1.45 1.60 96 -0.17 -0.24 1.79 1.96 120 -0.19 -0.24 1.99 2.25 144 -0.29 -0.35 2.32 2.93 168 -0.40 -0.53 2.58 3.04 192 -0.31 -0.60 2.81 3.03 216 -0.24 -0.45 2.95 3.46 240 -0.25 -0.46 3.12 3.90 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.14 0.89 0.91 48 0.08 0.16 1.07 1.13 72 0.15 0.28 1.36 1.46 96 0.18 0.10 1.75 1.88 120 0.17 0.20 2.10 2.29 144 0.08 -0.04 2.24 2.90 168 0.00 -0.10 2.55 3.17 192 0.22 -0.06 2.68 2.99 216 0.18 0.09 2.92 3.11 240 0.21 -0.20 3.01 3.69 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.34 1.20 1.17 48 0.50 0.43 1.43 1.54 72 0.54 0.30 1.72 1.77 96 0.42 0.32 2.00 2.22 120 0.37 0.07 2.40 2.61 144 0.26 0.00 2.62 2.97 168 0.27 -0.03 2.99 3.18 192 0.07 -0.27 3.13 3.22 216 -0.03 -0.60 3.22 3.34 240 -0.01 -0.33 3.20 3.69 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 3.55 3.67 48 -0.03 0.06 4.11 4.21 72 -0.13 -0.19 4.99 4.83 96 -0.30 -0.29 5.85 5.86 120 -0.57 -0.49 6.80 7.44 144 -0.74 -0.50 8.06 8.53 168 -0.68 -0.70 8.99 9.16 192 -0.69 -0.65 9.20 9.75 216 -0.57 -0.94 9.70 10.43 240 -0.58 -0.81 10.42 11.13 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.57 4.27 4.41 48 -0.76 -0.65 5.31 5.34 72 -0.80 -1.09 6.79 6.81 96 -0.91 -1.45 8.53 7.93 120 -0.99 -1.30 9.75 10.22 144 -1.15 -1.23 10.53 11.48 168 -1.23 -1.29 12.82 13.36 192 -1.75 -1.38 12.77 13.08 216 -1.69 -1.55 13.55 13.95 240 -1.85 -1.85 14.10 14.82 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.59 5.80 5.67 48 -1.27 -0.95 7.46 7.05 72 -1.60 -1.40 9.24 8.93 96 -1.56 -1.77 12.10 11.55 120 -1.91 -1.59 14.30 14.86 144 -1.91 -2.26 16.97 17.26 168 -1.98 -1.94 20.02 20.41 192 -2.29 -2.29 20.94 20.40 216 -2.26 -2.29 21.61 21.26 240 -2.49 -2.73 22.27 23.03 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.64 -6.22 10.66 10.60 48 -4.68 -5.41 10.91 10.78 72 -4.94 -6.33 11.54 11.46 96 -4.89 -6.46 12.60 12.14 120 -5.74 -7.98 13.59 13.30 144 -7.32 -9.53 15.20 15.01 168 -8.31 -10.46 16.39 15.91 192 -8.24 -10.86 17.29 16.82 216 -9.24 -12.29 18.30 18.16 240 -9.75 -12.06 18.97 18.45 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.88 -7.56 12.92 12.63 48 -6.33 -6.99 13.41 12.78 72 -6.89 -8.03 14.27 13.43 96 -7.05 -8.29 15.04 13.99 120 -7.99 -9.37 16.14 14.97 144 -9.78 -10.98 17.30 16.40 168 -10.43 -11.87 18.19 17.17 192 -10.53 -12.15 19.06 17.89 216 -11.41 -13.61 20.07 19.56 240 -11.74 -13.45 20.59 19.61 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.71 -7.25 14.90 14.44 48 -4.20 -5.63 15.30 14.25 72 -3.97 -5.77 16.00 14.89 96 -3.70 -5.11 16.71 15.78 120 -4.30 -5.84 18.04 16.46 144 -6.10 -7.04 19.35 18.05 168 -7.24 -7.79 20.98 19.49 192 -7.76 -8.29 22.24 20.41 216 -10.35 -11.18 24.47 23.32 240 -11.91 -12.43 26.72 25.91 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.07 0.98 1.07 48 0.00 -0.10 1.03 1.10 72 -0.02 -0.09 1.07 1.11 96 -0.02 -0.11 1.13 1.13 120 -0.04 -0.11 1.17 1.15 144 -0.07 -0.10 1.21 1.23 168 -0.09 -0.11 1.26 1.23 192 -0.10 -0.12 1.29 1.27 216 -0.11 -0.17 1.44 1.35 240 -0.10 -0.21 1.42 1.40 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.12 0.85 0.84 48 -0.21 -0.15 0.93 0.89 72 -0.22 -0.14 0.99 0.94 96 -0.21 -0.11 1.02 0.98 120 -0.18 -0.07 1.06 1.03 144 -0.17 -0.05 1.14 1.07 168 -0.13 -0.05 1.17 1.13 192 -0.19 -0.02 1.21 1.16 216 -0.16 0.03 1.21 1.18 240 -0.14 0.02 1.29 1.25 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.38 0.88 0.77 48 0.56 0.45 0.98 0.85 72 0.60 0.50 1.02 0.94 96 0.62 0.53 1.09 0.99 120 0.63 0.54 1.13 1.04 144 0.59 0.56 1.18 1.08 168 0.56 0.56 1.21 1.16 192 0.54 0.55 1.23 1.17 216 0.29 0.29 1.21 1.11 240 0.18 0.19 1.24 1.14 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.61 3.52 3.27 48 -0.50 -0.52 3.71 3.62 72 -0.44 -0.46 3.96 3.79 96 -0.49 -0.41 4.14 3.99 120 -0.60 -0.51 4.34 4.16 144 -0.62 -0.54 4.61 4.46 168 -0.64 -0.67 4.95 4.64 192 -0.65 -0.71 5.16 4.83 216 -0.62 -0.74 5.53 5.19 240 -0.47 -0.64 5.68 5.38 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.76 3.83 3.70 48 -0.87 -0.87 4.20 3.95 72 -0.90 -0.88 4.53 4.28 96 -1.00 -0.89 4.73 4.59 120 -1.04 -0.87 5.03 4.86 144 -0.94 -0.81 5.35 5.24 168 -0.98 -0.79 5.75 5.42 192 -1.07 -0.82 6.06 5.81 216 -1.29 -1.07 6.36 6.03 240 -1.37 -1.07 6.64 6.29 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.90 5.21 5.38 48 -1.42 -1.32 6.05 6.06 72 -1.63 -1.46 6.62 6.68 96 -1.80 -1.73 7.26 7.45 120 -2.06 -1.89 7.87 8.04 144 -2.26 -1.99 8.75 8.58 168 -2.29 -1.99 9.22 9.22 192 -2.29 -2.07 9.88 9.95 216 -2.29 -2.32 10.48 10.44 240 -2.39 -2.28 11.01 10.88 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.47 -3.25 8.91 8.61 48 -4.12 -3.73 12.22 12.08 72 -2.60 -1.86 16.98 16.86 96 -1.63 -0.68 23.82 24.29 120 -1.09 -0.54 32.10 32.28 144 -0.08 1.95 40.23 40.13 168 -0.41 2.63 46.25 46.92 192 -1.44 2.93 54.35 54.55 216 -1.36 2.08 59.54 58.73 240 0.21 1.67 63.71 63.60 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.40 -1.69 11.18 10.92 48 -0.99 -1.13 16.12 15.91 72 1.19 1.70 24.24 23.99 96 3.16 3.71 35.49 34.90 120 4.90 5.07 47.03 47.75 144 7.16 7.25 61.54 61.44 168 7.46 10.14 72.17 73.07 192 7.58 11.65 84.86 85.55 216 8.31 10.28 94.57 96.31 240 9.86 9.51 101.71 102.37 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.24 3.43 15.67 15.16 48 6.41 6.68 23.16 22.96 72 9.98 10.82 34.72 34.89 96 13.21 14.21 48.93 49.08 120 16.00 16.11 65.44 65.31 144 19.75 19.31 83.46 84.35 168 20.30 23.45 98.99 102.51 192 21.61 25.71 118.79 123.45 216 20.98 20.28 134.14 138.28 240 22.26 21.21 145.18 147.38 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.12 1.29 1.37 48 0.18 0.18 1.58 1.63 72 0.23 0.26 1.90 1.94 96 0.31 0.33 2.31 2.34 120 0.36 0.40 2.83 2.86 144 0.47 0.44 3.36 3.40 168 0.55 0.59 3.86 3.97 192 0.64 0.65 4.51 4.63 216 0.73 0.66 4.99 5.07 240 0.73 0.60 5.26 5.36 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.16 0.89 0.89 48 0.26 0.26 1.17 1.20 72 0.29 0.34 1.55 1.57 96 0.37 0.39 1.97 2.00 120 0.46 0.44 2.46 2.42 144 0.54 0.50 2.90 2.95 168 0.58 0.60 3.29 3.37 192 0.63 0.67 3.81 3.89 216 0.62 0.63 4.15 4.25 240 0.61 0.58 4.34 4.42 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.38 1.23 1.24 48 0.38 0.41 1.61 1.66 72 0.41 0.40 2.05 2.07 96 0.36 0.39 2.48 2.51 120 0.24 0.32 2.98 2.91 144 0.22 0.23 3.35 3.36 168 0.21 0.17 3.57 3.56 192 0.11 0.12 3.86 3.80 216 -0.01 -0.06 3.87 4.00 240 -0.02 -0.09 4.07 4.05 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.47 3.86 3.81 48 -0.47 -0.56 4.54 4.46 72 -0.61 -0.68 5.49 5.39 96 -0.71 -0.77 6.40 6.44 120 -0.70 -0.81 7.45 7.53 144 -0.72 -0.79 8.35 8.50 168 -0.76 -0.91 9.09 9.20 192 -0.77 -0.98 9.92 9.84 216 -0.99 -1.10 10.11 10.22 240 -0.94 -1.09 10.60 10.44 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.54 4.27 4.28 48 -0.69 -0.68 5.54 5.46 72 -0.86 -0.89 7.13 6.93 96 -1.04 -1.12 8.79 8.69 120 -1.15 -1.21 10.39 10.46 144 -1.19 -1.22 12.03 12.07 168 -1.09 -1.30 13.58 13.41 192 -1.11 -1.40 14.69 14.86 216 -1.23 -1.59 15.55 15.90 240 -1.46 -1.59 16.08 16.22 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.56 5.55 5.41 48 -1.02 -0.86 7.61 7.41 72 -1.14 -1.13 9.84 9.66 96 -1.35 -1.34 12.13 12.11 120 -1.62 -1.62 14.46 14.54 144 -1.61 -1.73 16.96 17.14 168 -1.69 -1.70 19.37 19.48 192 -1.52 -1.77 21.75 22.06 216 -1.75 -2.08 23.21 23.72 240 -2.03 -2.07 24.60 24.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.47 -5.83 9.92 11.42 48 -5.01 -5.19 13.28 14.88 72 -3.85 -4.79 18.40 20.50 96 -4.75 -5.56 27.33 28.47 120 -5.47 -4.87 33.65 36.45 144 -5.91 -5.57 41.21 42.88 168 -6.64 -6.37 45.91 49.70 192 -4.83 -5.72 53.82 58.21 216 -1.31 -2.42 57.99 63.31 240 -3.13 0.47 60.23 71.49 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.67 -5.13 12.67 12.58 48 -5.89 -4.25 17.66 18.58 72 -5.10 -4.46 26.04 27.46 96 -5.60 -5.41 37.26 39.02 120 -7.80 -4.50 47.72 51.18 144 -8.81 -5.61 56.91 64.86 168 -11.48 -7.37 65.12 70.21 192 -9.16 -8.12 73.44 82.52 216 -5.85 -4.88 81.21 90.73 240 -8.29 -1.90 89.14 100.38 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -0.11 14.60 16.56 48 0.82 3.22 22.30 24.48 72 2.73 4.67 33.38 35.74 96 3.45 4.25 50.27 53.01 120 1.41 7.12 62.69 69.83 144 -0.93 5.57 75.77 88.36 168 -5.10 4.90 89.88 96.14 192 -4.29 0.73 101.22 113.04 216 0.50 3.89 114.39 122.82 240 -1.65 3.54 128.14 135.90 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.11 1.36 1.41 48 -0.01 0.07 1.54 1.66 72 -0.05 0.00 1.90 1.93 96 -0.10 -0.05 2.26 2.35 120 -0.17 -0.07 2.65 2.76 144 -0.19 -0.07 3.11 3.22 168 -0.37 -0.16 3.46 3.66 192 -0.44 -0.56 3.87 4.03 216 -0.75 -0.64 4.22 4.20 240 -0.81 -0.85 4.41 4.57 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.20 0.94 1.01 48 0.13 0.30 1.20 1.31 72 0.15 0.30 1.56 1.59 96 0.22 0.29 1.97 2.07 120 0.13 0.44 2.41 2.46 144 0.13 0.32 2.75 3.01 168 -0.01 0.33 2.98 3.27 192 0.05 0.26 3.26 3.59 216 0.09 0.44 3.67 3.61 240 0.12 0.29 3.94 3.76 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.40 1.25 1.25 48 0.48 0.51 1.56 1.54 72 0.56 0.55 1.91 1.79 96 0.48 0.61 2.29 2.26 120 0.50 0.65 2.58 2.65 144 0.46 0.70 2.89 2.98 168 0.42 0.67 3.18 3.09 192 0.30 0.61 3.33 3.24 216 0.19 0.30 3.43 3.21 240 0.22 0.25 3.48 3.26 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.23 4.24 4.20 48 -0.42 -0.24 4.85 4.91 72 -0.46 -0.45 5.91 5.69 96 -0.58 -0.40 6.75 7.00 120 -0.62 -0.44 7.73 8.18 144 -0.71 -0.37 8.89 9.21 168 -0.77 -0.41 9.88 9.99 192 -0.78 -0.28 10.22 10.66 216 -1.23 -0.85 10.79 10.60 240 -1.08 -1.08 11.28 11.27 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.51 4.75 4.82 48 -0.51 -0.67 5.89 6.17 72 -0.59 -0.81 7.56 7.68 96 -0.67 -0.94 9.23 9.34 120 -0.72 -1.01 10.60 11.32 144 -1.01 -1.13 12.13 12.75 168 -0.93 -0.78 13.70 14.38 192 -1.01 -0.85 14.07 14.89 216 -1.29 -1.48 14.67 15.57 240 -1.56 -1.54 15.64 16.42 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.64 5.93 6.17 48 -0.80 -0.77 7.76 7.68 72 -1.00 -0.98 10.14 9.92 96 -1.22 -1.35 13.12 13.10 120 -1.33 -1.51 15.23 15.99 144 -1.53 -1.53 18.16 18.22 168 -1.54 -1.16 20.63 20.58 192 -1.66 -1.62 22.15 22.18 216 -1.94 -1.91 22.75 22.97 240 -1.72 -1.69 24.28 24.89