VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 19.2 19.7 48 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 26.6 27.1 72 0.2 0.1 2.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 34.5 35.1 96 0.2 0.2 3.5 3.6 0.9 0.9 43.3 44.1 120 0.3 0.2 4.8 5.0 0.9 0.9 52.2 53.1 144 0.3 0.3 6.0 6.2 0.9 0.8 60.0 60.9 168 0.4 0.4 7.1 7.3 0.8 0.8 66.3 67.6 192 0.4 0.5 8.2 8.4 0.8 0.8 72.9 73.0 216 0.5 0.5 9.3 9.3 0.7 0.7 77.8 77.6 240 0.5 0.5 10.0 10.0 0.7 0.7 80.0 80.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.6 -0.8 7.8 8.1 1.0 1.0 11.4 11.6 48 -1.4 -1.9 14.7 15.0 1.0 1.0 18.1 18.3 72 -1.0 -1.3 23.7 24.5 1.0 1.0 24.9 25.4 96 -1.1 -1.1 35.5 36.7 1.0 0.9 32.2 32.7 120 -1.2 -1.6 49.1 51.0 0.9 0.9 39.4 40.1 144 -1.1 -1.3 62.8 65.0 0.9 0.9 45.6 46.5 168 -1.0 -1.1 77.5 78.8 0.8 0.8 51.7 52.4 192 -1.6 -1.4 91.8 91.9 0.8 0.8 57.2 57.0 216 -2.0 -1.9 104.3 103.5 0.7 0.7 61.7 61.5 240 -2.4 -1.9 113.1 112.8 0.7 0.7 64.5 64.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.9 1.5 9.9 9.8 1.0 1.0 9.2 9.3 48 2.9 2.2 18.4 18.4 1.0 1.0 14.2 14.3 72 4.2 3.8 29.3 29.9 1.0 1.0 19.4 19.9 96 4.3 4.2 43.5 45.1 1.0 1.0 25.2 25.8 120 3.9 3.5 61.5 63.6 0.9 0.9 31.6 32.2 144 3.8 3.7 80.0 82.4 0.9 0.9 37.4 38.4 168 3.5 3.9 99.7 101.3 0.8 0.8 43.0 43.7 192 2.5 3.0 119.7 119.0 0.8 0.8 48.4 48.1 216 0.4 1.0 136.3 134.9 0.7 0.7 52.6 52.5 240 0.3 0.8 149.1 148.1 0.7 0.7 55.5 55.5 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 72 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 96 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 120 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.9 144 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 0.0 3.5 3.6 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 -0.1 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 4.4 4.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 4.8 4.7 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 -0.1 3.4 3.5 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 -0.1 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.3 4.0 3.9 0.7 0.7 240 -0.3 -0.3 4.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.2 48 -0.2 -0.2 4.8 4.8 72 -0.3 -0.3 6.4 6.5 96 -0.4 -0.4 8.2 8.4 120 -0.5 -0.5 10.1 10.3 144 -0.6 -0.6 11.8 12.0 168 -0.7 -0.7 13.5 13.6 192 -0.7 -0.7 15.0 14.9 216 -0.8 -0.8 16.3 16.2 240 -0.8 -0.8 17.1 17.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.2 4.2 4.2 48 -0.4 -0.4 6.1 6.1 72 -0.6 -0.6 8.0 8.1 96 -0.7 -0.6 10.2 10.4 120 -0.8 -0.8 12.8 12.9 144 -0.8 -0.9 15.3 15.5 168 -0.8 -0.9 17.9 17.9 192 -0.9 -0.9 20.2 20.0 216 -0.9 -1.0 22.2 22.0 240 -0.9 -1.0 23.7 23.6 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.2 -1.4 4.1 4.1 0.9 0.9 35.6 35.8 48 -2.1 -2.4 5.6 5.9 0.9 0.9 42.4 42.8 72 -3.6 -3.9 7.2 7.2 0.9 0.9 45.8 46.0 96 -4.7 -5.0 8.6 8.8 0.8 0.8 48.9 49.2 120 -5.8 -6.1 10.2 10.3 0.8 0.8 51.8 52.4 144 -7.0 -7.4 11.7 12.1 0.8 0.8 54.4 55.1 168 -7.3 -8.1 12.6 12.9 0.8 0.8 56.8 57.5 192 -8.1 -8.8 14.0 14.1 0.7 0.7 59.2 60.0 216 -9.1 -9.8 15.5 15.6 0.7 0.7 65.0 65.2 240 -9.7 -10.6 17.0 17.1 0.6 0.6 66.9 67.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.5 1.2 5.4 5.3 0.9 0.9 27.5 27.6 48 1.4 1.4 8.0 8.1 0.9 0.9 33.6 33.7 72 0.4 0.4 10.4 10.5 0.9 0.9 37.8 38.0 96 -0.1 -0.1 12.4 12.7 0.9 0.9 41.3 41.5 120 -0.6 -0.7 14.6 15.0 0.9 0.9 44.4 45.0 144 -0.9 -1.2 17.4 17.7 0.9 0.9 48.5 48.8 168 -0.7 -1.3 20.0 20.4 0.8 0.8 51.5 52.2 192 -0.8 -1.2 23.1 23.2 0.8 0.8 54.8 55.2 216 -2.6 -2.8 25.7 25.9 0.8 0.8 58.5 59.1 240 -3.5 -3.8 27.8 28.0 0.7 0.7 61.3 61.5 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 48 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 216 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 240 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 120 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 168 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 240 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 48 0.1 0.0 2.4 2.3 72 0.1 0.0 2.8 2.7 96 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.0 120 0.0 0.1 3.5 3.4 144 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.7 168 0.1 0.0 4.1 4.0 192 0.1 0.1 4.4 4.3 216 0.2 0.1 4.8 4.7 240 0.2 0.2 5.1 5.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.4 4.2 4.3 48 -0.7 -0.6 5.7 5.7 72 -0.8 -0.8 6.6 6.6 96 -1.0 -0.9 7.5 7.5 120 -1.0 -1.0 8.3 8.3 144 -1.1 -1.0 9.2 9.2 168 -1.1 -1.1 9.9 10.0 192 -1.1 -1.1 10.7 10.7 216 -1.1 -1.0 11.5 11.5 240 -1.0 -0.9 12.2 12.2 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 18.3 18.3 48 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.1 1.0 1.0 26.3 26.3 72 0.1 0.1 3.0 3.0 0.9 0.9 34.0 34.1 96 0.1 0.2 4.0 4.1 0.9 0.9 41.3 41.6 120 0.2 0.3 5.3 5.1 0.9 0.9 48.5 47.8 144 0.3 0.3 6.5 6.3 0.8 0.8 54.3 53.9 168 0.2 0.3 7.3 7.5 0.8 0.7 58.5 59.6 192 0.3 0.4 8.2 8.3 0.7 0.7 62.6 63.5 216 0.5 0.6 8.7 8.9 0.7 0.7 64.8 65.4 240 0.6 0.7 9.2 9.4 0.6 0.6 66.9 66.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.4 0.8 9.2 9.4 1.0 1.0 12.5 12.6 48 0.6 1.4 17.1 17.2 1.0 1.0 19.1 19.1 72 0.5 1.2 26.9 27.2 1.0 1.0 25.9 25.9 96 0.7 0.9 38.9 39.0 0.9 0.9 32.8 32.7 120 1.0 1.5 52.5 50.2 0.9 0.9 39.6 38.5 144 1.3 1.8 65.3 63.8 0.9 0.9 44.9 44.4 168 1.2 1.7 76.1 78.1 0.8 0.8 49.3 50.1 192 2.0 2.2 87.0 88.4 0.7 0.7 53.7 53.9 216 2.2 2.7 93.6 95.9 0.7 0.7 56.0 56.4 240 2.2 2.6 100.5 102.5 0.7 0.7 58.1 58.4 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.6 2.9 11.5 11.9 1.0 1.0 10.4 10.5 48 4.7 5.6 22.4 22.6 1.0 1.0 16.3 16.4 72 5.5 6.3 36.1 36.4 1.0 1.0 22.9 22.9 96 6.0 6.3 52.7 52.8 0.9 0.9 29.5 29.4 120 6.7 7.1 71.6 69.0 0.9 0.9 36.1 35.3 144 7.7 7.8 89.0 87.3 0.9 0.9 41.3 40.8 168 7.6 7.7 103.5 108.8 0.8 0.8 45.6 46.7 192 7.9 8.2 120.5 123.8 0.8 0.7 50.5 50.8 216 6.1 6.9 131.7 134.8 0.7 0.7 53.1 53.5 240 5.0 6.1 142.5 144.0 0.7 0.7 55.1 55.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.6 2.5 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.2 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 3.3 3.5 0.8 0.8 192 0.3 0.3 3.7 3.8 0.7 0.7 216 0.2 0.2 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 240 0.2 0.2 4.3 4.2 0.6 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 72 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.9 120 -0.2 -0.2 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.8 144 -0.2 -0.2 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 192 -0.4 -0.4 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 -0.6 -0.5 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.7 240 -0.6 -0.6 4.4 4.3 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.4 3.5 48 -0.1 -0.2 5.0 5.1 72 -0.3 -0.3 6.7 6.8 96 -0.4 -0.4 8.5 8.5 120 -0.4 -0.5 10.3 10.0 144 -0.5 -0.6 11.7 11.6 168 -0.7 -0.8 13.0 13.2 192 -0.8 -0.9 14.1 14.2 216 -1.0 -1.0 14.7 14.8 240 -1.1 -1.0 15.3 15.5 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 4.5 4.5 48 -0.3 -0.3 6.8 6.8 72 -0.5 -0.5 9.4 9.3 96 -0.6 -0.6 12.1 12.1 120 -0.7 -0.7 15.0 14.6 144 -0.8 -0.8 17.4 17.0 168 -0.9 -1.0 19.2 19.7 192 -1.1 -1.1 21.5 21.5 216 -1.2 -1.1 22.5 22.6 240 -1.2 -1.1 23.7 23.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.87 -4.50 9.04 9.07 48 -6.21 -6.88 12.75 13.09 72 -5.66 -6.36 17.87 17.12 96 -3.69 -2.25 24.06 25.45 120 -1.67 -0.98 33.28 33.62 144 -0.25 -1.32 39.60 40.78 168 0.11 -2.02 49.82 48.78 192 -2.81 -3.06 57.80 57.56 216 -3.85 -4.07 66.18 64.32 240 -6.19 -6.21 69.19 66.62 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.07 -5.22 10.30 11.15 48 -7.16 -8.52 17.02 17.20 72 -7.31 -8.60 24.81 25.46 96 -5.07 -3.87 37.61 37.36 120 -1.45 -1.31 53.01 51.40 144 2.89 1.30 64.89 63.35 168 2.89 1.02 81.33 77.10 192 0.81 0.55 94.72 90.99 216 1.65 0.29 110.54 106.15 240 -0.57 -0.15 118.69 112.87 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.68 -0.53 12.33 12.16 48 -0.02 -1.58 20.99 19.49 72 0.71 -0.14 31.72 31.44 96 4.45 4.97 48.37 48.99 120 9.74 9.90 71.55 68.66 144 16.25 15.62 91.52 84.98 168 16.17 15.60 117.10 106.62 192 15.55 15.02 136.06 125.70 216 16.81 15.42 157.39 148.04 240 10.28 16.91 164.55 162.57 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.16 1.53 1.59 48 -0.24 -0.30 1.84 1.86 72 -0.37 -0.32 2.17 2.14 96 -0.31 -0.34 2.76 2.82 120 -0.11 -0.24 3.55 3.61 144 0.00 0.01 4.13 4.37 168 -0.06 0.03 4.99 4.99 192 0.00 0.21 5.55 5.55 216 0.20 0.01 6.22 6.20 240 0.26 -0.12 6.64 6.70 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.16 0.89 0.91 48 0.23 0.21 1.22 1.23 72 0.25 0.21 1.69 1.66 96 0.29 0.26 2.11 2.14 120 0.40 0.32 2.78 2.60 144 0.54 0.52 3.29 3.15 168 0.54 0.55 3.85 3.63 192 0.62 0.57 4.35 4.01 216 0.65 0.51 4.89 4.63 240 0.75 0.66 5.22 5.10 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.39 1.20 1.23 48 0.54 0.55 1.67 1.61 72 0.54 0.63 2.03 2.00 96 0.52 0.59 2.44 2.37 120 0.54 0.55 2.88 2.85 144 0.51 0.55 3.16 3.19 168 0.54 0.57 3.44 3.47 192 0.54 0.58 3.65 3.58 216 0.52 0.55 4.06 3.92 240 0.61 0.65 4.34 3.95 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.30 3.98 4.02 48 -0.02 -0.38 4.68 4.63 72 -0.05 -0.40 5.48 5.46 96 -0.20 -0.58 6.67 7.01 120 -0.46 -0.86 8.06 7.97 144 -0.72 -0.71 8.76 9.32 168 -0.68 -0.94 9.90 10.25 192 -0.42 -1.16 11.09 10.93 216 -0.46 -1.02 11.77 11.84 240 -0.17 -0.99 12.22 12.39 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.42 4.47 4.45 48 -0.73 -0.52 5.80 5.69 72 -0.72 -0.68 7.27 7.39 96 -1.03 -1.01 9.33 9.43 120 -1.26 -1.34 11.22 11.23 144 -1.42 -1.44 12.88 12.85 168 -1.62 -1.49 14.80 14.56 192 -1.57 -1.60 16.30 15.68 216 -1.86 -1.87 17.88 17.82 240 -1.65 -1.38 18.32 19.00 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.71 5.68 5.52 48 -0.76 -0.72 7.59 7.16 72 -0.92 -0.98 9.63 9.19 96 -1.18 -1.24 12.03 12.07 120 -1.30 -1.28 15.33 14.63 144 -1.31 -1.44 18.03 17.59 168 -1.42 -1.65 20.94 19.91 192 -1.65 -2.07 23.60 21.69 216 -1.94 -2.24 26.22 25.27 240 -1.63 -1.58 27.86 27.75 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.70 7.96 8.10 48 -0.17 -0.33 11.58 10.97 72 0.00 0.26 16.38 15.67 96 -1.69 -1.10 21.22 21.26 120 -0.69 -0.48 28.72 30.22 144 5.13 6.20 38.03 41.06 168 8.22 12.32 51.23 51.13 192 13.20 15.87 61.65 61.16 216 18.12 24.12 72.24 71.51 240 16.77 26.53 76.42 82.29 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.00 1.85 10.15 9.82 48 0.96 1.87 15.12 14.94 72 0.64 3.88 21.57 21.61 96 1.47 4.78 27.73 28.76 120 3.67 6.53 39.51 39.16 144 8.12 10.29 51.50 50.88 168 8.93 15.40 68.67 65.85 192 18.03 19.11 88.06 83.43 216 20.01 30.14 101.83 100.74 240 23.63 39.58 113.58 115.56 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.73 5.38 14.02 12.87 48 8.00 8.53 21.03 19.66 72 8.70 14.36 29.96 31.33 96 12.56 16.33 40.09 43.32 120 12.55 18.92 54.81 59.45 144 19.60 21.89 71.82 71.05 168 18.67 23.41 93.72 92.05 192 30.25 27.44 120.13 117.10 216 29.64 42.18 139.35 142.77 240 37.26 54.59 158.89 155.64 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.33 1.26 1.24 48 0.25 0.45 1.46 1.51 72 0.26 0.48 1.73 1.77 96 0.35 0.56 2.05 2.05 120 0.40 0.62 2.55 2.63 144 0.41 0.64 3.34 3.21 168 0.41 0.93 3.98 3.94 192 0.51 0.79 4.54 4.18 216 0.59 1.07 5.34 5.04 240 0.91 1.31 5.61 5.54 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.21 0.80 0.77 48 0.30 0.30 1.10 1.03 72 0.27 0.47 1.48 1.52 96 0.51 0.52 1.82 1.83 120 0.32 0.52 2.14 2.42 144 0.50 0.50 2.89 2.68 168 0.33 0.30 3.36 3.29 192 0.44 0.29 3.96 3.80 216 0.38 0.59 4.57 4.48 240 0.64 1.02 5.05 4.80 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.37 1.14 1.18 48 0.41 0.46 1.49 1.52 72 0.51 0.46 1.88 1.84 96 0.43 0.49 2.06 2.17 120 0.36 0.38 2.47 2.58 144 0.23 0.29 2.84 2.78 168 0.27 0.18 3.27 3.20 192 0.03 0.39 3.45 3.45 216 0.07 0.02 3.78 3.60 240 0.10 -0.22 4.01 3.66 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.34 4.03 3.82 48 -0.37 -0.43 4.70 4.38 72 -0.38 -0.40 5.51 5.30 96 -0.37 -0.30 6.06 6.14 120 -0.48 -0.35 6.96 7.16 144 -0.70 -0.40 8.46 8.27 168 -0.69 -0.70 9.70 9.44 192 -0.85 -0.90 10.50 10.30 216 -1.45 -1.04 11.18 11.05 240 -1.33 -0.90 11.71 11.70 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.57 4.03 4.18 48 -0.42 -0.84 5.24 5.23 72 -0.38 -0.42 6.62 6.72 96 -0.30 -0.45 7.47 7.81 120 -0.32 -0.18 9.24 9.09 144 -0.16 -0.53 11.33 11.04 168 0.05 -0.71 13.58 12.80 192 0.04 -1.08 15.01 14.32 216 -0.26 -0.89 16.19 16.26 240 -0.23 -0.68 17.23 16.23 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.49 4.82 4.82 48 -0.55 -0.79 6.76 6.68 72 -0.68 -0.59 8.20 8.31 96 -0.56 -0.53 9.89 10.32 120 -0.30 -0.27 12.15 13.18 144 0.23 -0.57 15.39 14.63 168 -0.08 -0.99 18.37 17.79 192 0.13 -1.13 20.98 20.07 216 0.24 -0.56 22.56 23.29 240 0.45 -1.16 24.63 23.20 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.28 9.76 9.42 48 1.26 1.20 12.37 12.03 72 3.45 3.51 16.51 16.76 96 4.07 4.71 23.25 22.83 120 5.11 3.84 30.77 29.60 144 5.24 4.71 36.72 35.09 168 5.77 6.52 40.72 41.45 192 4.87 9.02 48.24 47.55 216 6.70 9.39 54.12 57.23 240 10.15 8.94 57.10 56.79 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.40 -2.84 13.49 12.76 48 -2.95 -3.24 17.70 17.09 72 -1.20 -1.37 22.88 23.58 96 -0.76 -0.53 33.46 32.85 120 0.35 -2.35 43.15 43.97 144 -2.33 -2.46 54.06 53.07 168 -0.43 -2.38 62.31 63.25 192 -1.35 0.52 73.73 74.40 216 0.05 2.17 81.06 78.83 240 0.61 0.71 88.27 82.17 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.89 -2.81 19.18 18.08 48 -3.15 -2.19 24.39 24.22 72 0.27 1.29 31.66 32.29 96 0.66 2.44 43.19 44.05 120 1.08 -0.41 58.24 57.55 144 -2.32 -2.00 72.30 72.58 168 -0.11 -0.99 83.86 85.66 192 -0.08 1.61 97.89 103.04 216 0.74 1.25 108.19 108.83 240 -1.94 0.82 121.32 111.83 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.43 1.71 1.78 48 -0.16 -0.55 2.03 2.10 72 -0.27 -0.61 2.31 2.40 96 -0.28 -0.71 2.86 2.91 120 -0.07 -0.57 3.63 3.48 144 -0.12 -0.68 4.26 4.08 168 -0.19 -0.67 4.54 4.73 192 -0.12 -0.64 5.45 5.53 216 -0.37 -0.57 6.12 6.10 240 -0.60 -0.90 6.54 6.33 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.97 0.97 48 -0.10 -0.08 1.24 1.25 72 -0.10 -0.06 1.58 1.63 96 -0.13 -0.10 2.11 2.11 120 -0.17 -0.22 2.66 2.63 144 -0.29 -0.37 3.12 3.10 168 -0.21 -0.30 3.51 3.55 192 -0.27 -0.35 3.80 4.09 216 -0.33 -0.32 4.31 4.33 240 -0.49 -0.24 4.66 4.39 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 0.12 1.26 1.25 48 0.05 0.16 1.61 1.56 72 0.10 0.23 1.91 1.91 96 0.13 0.25 2.26 2.31 120 0.03 0.30 2.72 2.73 144 0.08 0.20 3.06 3.01 168 0.07 0.22 3.39 3.25 192 0.12 0.14 3.56 3.49 216 -0.07 -0.01 3.71 3.55 240 -0.14 -0.06 3.85 3.70 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.44 3.96 3.84 48 -0.56 -0.51 4.48 4.38 72 -0.69 -0.68 5.12 5.07 96 -0.89 -0.86 6.15 6.07 120 -1.09 -1.11 7.32 7.08 144 -1.16 -1.34 8.06 7.68 168 -1.26 -1.26 8.61 8.54 192 -1.10 -1.16 9.37 9.57 216 -0.93 -1.04 10.09 10.34 240 -0.88 -0.76 10.19 10.11 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.35 4.32 4.41 48 -0.68 -0.43 5.60 5.58 72 -0.70 -0.41 6.89 6.85 96 -0.85 -0.58 8.41 8.40 120 -1.12 -0.81 9.90 9.65 144 -1.28 -1.04 11.27 10.93 168 -1.43 -1.11 11.98 12.13 192 -1.39 -1.01 12.93 13.63 216 -1.52 -1.44 14.25 14.21 240 -1.35 -1.23 14.93 14.21 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.84 6.05 5.97 48 -1.14 -0.93 7.38 7.60 72 -1.11 -0.99 8.81 9.14 96 -1.14 -0.88 10.80 10.83 120 -1.18 -0.90 12.98 12.99 144 -1.00 -1.06 15.06 14.95 168 -0.95 -1.01 16.38 16.82 192 -0.87 -0.64 18.22 19.05 216 -1.03 -0.98 19.71 20.05 240 -0.98 -0.95 20.76 20.04 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.24 -8.54 10.84 11.19 48 -7.73 -6.80 11.78 12.93 72 -6.52 -5.48 13.58 16.36 96 -6.49 -6.46 18.64 20.63 120 -8.56 -5.78 25.77 25.49 144 -8.84 -5.70 27.88 31.88 168 -9.90 -6.93 32.03 38.52 192 -9.84 -7.80 37.01 44.98 216 -7.77 -5.62 42.43 50.00 240 -7.21 -5.37 44.15 51.62 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.91 -12.58 14.17 16.08 48 -11.08 -11.39 16.13 17.92 72 -9.95 -9.63 18.75 24.59 96 -10.58 -10.92 25.04 29.32 120 -11.60 -11.10 33.30 36.57 144 -12.00 -8.96 37.85 46.71 168 -14.02 -9.80 45.48 51.42 192 -13.12 -11.69 47.89 66.35 216 -11.23 -10.49 57.02 71.98 240 -8.71 -16.56 56.65 81.88 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.86 -8.21 12.87 17.33 48 -3.20 -5.14 18.06 21.57 72 -0.33 -1.48 24.32 31.90 96 -0.09 -1.44 35.80 37.28 120 1.45 -2.43 47.74 48.03 144 2.27 3.10 62.37 66.93 168 0.91 5.87 69.11 82.26 192 2.97 4.02 75.55 94.57 216 4.54 0.07 85.46 98.75 240 8.45 -6.60 90.83 123.52 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 1.19 1.09 48 -0.02 0.01 1.35 1.23 72 -0.02 -0.10 1.53 1.50 96 -0.13 -0.18 1.82 1.82 120 0.01 -0.29 2.33 2.18 144 -0.06 -0.29 2.53 2.33 168 -0.01 -0.10 2.68 2.67 192 0.06 -0.08 3.01 3.42 216 0.02 -0.28 3.43 3.54 240 0.20 -0.52 3.64 3.81 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.06 0.87 0.90 48 0.01 0.08 1.08 1.09 72 0.05 0.15 1.20 1.49 96 0.06 0.24 1.50 1.54 120 0.15 0.20 1.76 1.82 144 0.25 0.42 2.06 2.31 168 0.19 0.48 2.14 2.55 192 0.26 0.49 2.42 2.99 216 0.27 0.33 2.66 2.92 240 0.40 0.07 2.83 3.59 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.49 1.10 1.07 48 0.57 0.51 1.33 1.35 72 0.65 0.39 1.51 1.68 96 0.64 0.47 1.68 1.88 120 0.75 0.44 1.97 2.26 144 0.82 0.65 2.23 2.48 168 0.93 0.85 2.46 2.71 192 1.00 0.78 2.74 2.93 216 0.86 0.54 2.76 2.91 240 0.85 0.67 2.90 2.95 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 0.19 3.85 3.87 48 -0.27 -0.04 4.41 4.14 72 -0.35 -0.05 5.05 4.77 96 -0.15 0.04 5.71 5.76 120 -0.25 0.13 6.66 6.63 144 -0.27 0.26 7.08 7.51 168 -0.02 0.33 7.95 8.20 192 -0.18 0.43 8.68 9.30 216 -0.40 0.30 9.31 9.07 240 -0.31 0.44 9.74 9.57 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.64 3.94 4.25 48 -0.72 -0.89 4.92 4.81 72 -1.00 -1.20 6.07 6.20 96 -1.11 -1.53 7.10 7.14 120 -1.19 -1.31 8.64 8.15 144 -1.47 -1.45 9.33 9.09 168 -1.54 -1.47 10.41 10.02 192 -1.26 -1.64 11.60 11.27 216 -1.74 -1.71 11.55 11.33 240 -1.81 -1.51 12.55 12.27 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.61 5.31 5.80 48 -0.81 -0.87 6.90 6.86 72 -0.97 -1.39 8.91 8.70 96 -1.44 -1.52 11.05 10.61 120 -1.45 -1.30 13.50 12.38 144 -1.48 -1.50 14.94 13.76 168 -1.39 -1.76 16.15 16.20 192 -1.49 -2.41 17.93 17.41 216 -1.98 -2.26 18.23 18.41 240 -2.43 -1.96 19.55 19.38 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.94 -6.05 11.06 11.11 48 -6.07 -5.26 11.20 11.41 72 -6.55 -6.38 12.12 12.40 96 -7.32 -6.97 13.88 13.89 120 -8.96 -8.43 15.68 14.99 144 -9.92 -9.64 16.68 16.31 168 -10.72 -11.21 17.73 17.56 192 -11.63 -11.85 18.88 18.41 216 -13.19 -13.46 20.70 19.83 240 -13.22 -13.50 21.61 20.65 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.77 -8.39 13.35 13.63 48 -7.93 -7.76 14.03 13.70 72 -8.57 -8.84 14.91 14.68 96 -8.98 -9.10 16.24 15.75 120 -10.65 -10.50 17.56 17.03 144 -11.70 -11.61 18.63 18.48 168 -12.37 -13.03 19.47 19.40 192 -12.71 -13.49 20.39 20.17 216 -13.72 -14.73 21.66 21.38 240 -13.58 -14.52 22.69 21.85 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.78 -6.43 14.24 14.46 48 -3.62 -4.21 15.17 14.80 72 -3.30 -4.50 16.21 16.09 96 -3.32 -4.52 17.56 17.64 120 -4.55 -5.76 18.57 19.18 144 -5.20 -6.28 20.13 20.10 168 -5.29 -6.85 21.81 22.25 192 -6.31 -7.25 23.39 23.44 216 -7.81 -10.05 25.59 25.59 240 -8.57 -10.14 27.40 27.05 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.13 0.96 1.07 48 0.02 -0.10 0.99 1.11 72 0.00 -0.10 1.01 1.14 96 0.01 -0.09 1.06 1.18 120 0.00 -0.11 1.14 1.25 144 0.00 -0.13 1.17 1.30 168 0.00 -0.09 1.23 1.34 192 -0.01 -0.07 1.32 1.35 216 0.05 -0.14 1.41 1.48 240 0.07 -0.15 1.40 1.52 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.13 0.85 0.83 48 -0.13 -0.12 0.91 0.89 72 -0.12 -0.10 0.94 0.94 96 -0.09 -0.09 0.99 0.99 120 -0.09 -0.09 1.05 1.04 144 -0.07 -0.08 1.08 1.07 168 -0.06 -0.06 1.17 1.14 192 -0.02 -0.05 1.22 1.22 216 0.07 0.01 1.30 1.27 240 0.07 0.04 1.35 1.31 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.47 0.42 0.86 0.83 48 0.58 0.49 0.99 0.94 72 0.63 0.55 1.08 1.04 96 0.66 0.57 1.15 1.09 120 0.68 0.61 1.23 1.17 144 0.69 0.60 1.27 1.26 168 0.67 0.61 1.31 1.32 192 0.70 0.59 1.37 1.31 216 0.47 0.38 1.33 1.28 240 0.40 0.33 1.33 1.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.58 3.67 3.65 48 -0.70 -0.58 3.90 3.83 72 -0.71 -0.52 4.15 4.11 96 -0.65 -0.52 4.43 4.38 120 -0.64 -0.52 4.67 4.63 144 -0.68 -0.56 4.93 4.91 168 -0.61 -0.54 5.20 5.23 192 -0.58 -0.59 5.50 5.52 216 -0.48 -0.56 5.72 5.74 240 -0.37 -0.52 6.04 5.98 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.87 3.92 3.95 48 -0.93 -0.94 4.36 4.25 72 -0.95 -0.93 4.61 4.55 96 -0.99 -0.95 4.97 4.86 120 -0.98 -0.96 5.29 5.25 144 -0.95 -0.86 5.73 5.76 168 -0.95 -0.80 5.98 6.17 192 -0.93 -0.89 6.56 6.46 216 -1.11 -1.07 6.82 6.78 240 -1.11 -1.05 7.31 7.19 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.72 5.38 5.51 48 -0.85 -1.07 6.08 6.45 72 -1.08 -1.15 6.64 7.19 96 -1.22 -1.29 7.38 7.64 120 -1.22 -1.27 7.95 8.31 144 -1.26 -1.24 8.66 8.92 168 -1.47 -1.32 9.11 9.60 192 -1.44 -1.41 9.79 9.99 216 -1.63 -1.49 10.45 10.73 240 -1.65 -1.33 10.76 11.18 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.83 -2.07 9.27 9.18 48 -2.18 -2.67 12.97 12.98 72 -1.66 -1.74 18.33 18.13 96 -1.71 -0.36 25.65 26.50 120 -0.39 -0.03 34.51 35.59 144 1.83 1.54 43.26 45.63 168 2.82 2.94 53.30 54.30 192 3.35 3.97 61.65 62.02 216 3.85 5.24 71.03 71.71 240 2.37 5.38 75.57 77.46 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.61 -1.89 12.02 11.77 48 -2.57 -3.06 17.86 18.15 72 -2.21 -1.95 26.09 26.69 96 -1.67 -0.43 38.61 39.17 120 -0.75 -0.18 53.38 54.71 144 1.75 2.24 66.88 69.50 168 2.28 3.70 83.09 83.16 192 3.35 5.79 98.11 97.48 216 6.38 8.44 111.36 109.32 240 6.72 12.27 123.28 120.52 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.66 0.95 15.20 14.48 48 2.88 1.74 22.47 21.97 72 4.42 4.98 32.26 33.50 96 6.87 6.91 47.49 48.87 120 6.89 7.47 68.14 70.30 144 9.87 10.18 86.75 89.49 168 9.58 11.79 107.32 109.83 192 12.59 13.75 131.01 129.85 216 13.86 17.25 148.52 146.40 240 15.82 22.30 165.89 161.91 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.07 1.44 1.49 48 0.05 0.04 1.76 1.78 72 0.02 0.06 2.10 2.11 96 0.03 0.03 2.66 2.64 120 0.04 0.05 3.35 3.41 144 0.08 0.13 4.08 4.11 168 0.07 0.20 4.73 4.78 192 0.20 0.36 5.36 5.38 216 0.31 0.33 5.93 6.01 240 0.28 0.41 6.40 6.43 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.14 0.90 0.91 48 0.16 0.17 1.25 1.23 72 0.20 0.23 1.66 1.69 96 0.25 0.25 2.14 2.31 120 0.21 0.23 2.85 2.91 144 0.26 0.27 3.36 3.54 168 0.22 0.26 3.86 4.01 192 0.31 0.31 4.50 4.50 216 0.37 0.42 4.98 4.94 240 0.45 0.64 5.39 5.20 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.24 1.21 1.20 48 0.29 0.26 1.61 1.57 72 0.27 0.26 2.04 1.99 96 0.21 0.24 2.45 2.47 120 0.15 0.16 2.97 2.97 144 0.08 0.10 3.38 3.38 168 0.05 0.07 3.67 3.69 192 -0.03 0.05 3.92 3.92 216 -0.15 -0.12 4.22 4.14 240 -0.19 -0.28 4.46 4.24 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.40 3.98 3.90 48 -0.37 -0.48 4.64 4.55 72 -0.47 -0.53 5.49 5.44 96 -0.57 -0.63 6.54 6.60 120 -0.70 -0.81 7.70 7.84 144 -0.89 -0.77 8.73 8.99 168 -0.86 -0.93 9.88 9.96 192 -0.92 -0.94 10.65 10.64 216 -1.03 -0.94 11.29 11.42 240 -0.81 -1.00 11.75 11.80 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.49 4.22 4.31 48 -0.65 -0.62 5.61 5.70 72 -0.64 -0.56 7.29 7.32 96 -0.88 -0.77 9.06 9.30 120 -0.91 -0.97 11.05 11.13 144 -1.03 -1.27 12.76 12.87 168 -1.11 -1.35 14.58 14.25 192 -1.23 -1.43 15.98 15.61 216 -1.49 -1.48 17.08 17.23 240 -1.40 -1.41 17.92 17.77 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.55 5.29 5.24 48 -0.63 -0.68 6.99 6.96 72 -0.73 -0.82 8.78 8.63 96 -0.95 -0.88 10.77 11.20 120 -0.84 -0.98 13.66 13.91 144 -0.77 -1.23 16.19 16.32 168 -0.92 -1.49 18.79 18.71 192 -1.05 -1.54 21.31 20.86 216 -1.34 -1.62 23.16 23.37 240 -1.14 -1.52 24.94 24.50 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.83 -7.74 11.01 12.61 48 -7.10 -7.71 13.42 15.14 72 -6.55 -8.14 15.95 18.33 96 -6.04 -8.96 22.01 24.35 120 -7.17 -9.91 30.05 29.00 144 -8.37 -10.71 35.22 35.05 168 -8.66 -12.49 36.56 42.33 192 -7.30 -13.26 44.53 48.26 216 -5.12 -14.19 51.28 51.49 240 -3.01 -13.73 54.01 55.54 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.79 -7.77 14.31 13.58 48 -8.39 -7.95 17.00 17.48 72 -8.30 -8.10 21.45 22.64 96 -8.47 -8.42 27.49 29.13 120 -8.57 -9.48 38.68 36.43 144 -8.66 -8.74 46.14 47.41 168 -9.56 -10.29 50.31 54.11 192 -7.74 -10.43 59.50 64.09 216 -5.46 -11.96 66.62 69.53 240 -1.97 -11.28 70.56 76.90 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.70 -0.94 15.68 15.43 48 -0.17 0.85 20.88 22.00 72 1.09 2.40 28.46 30.65 96 1.68 4.41 39.08 39.51 120 4.18 5.32 53.47 53.43 144 6.49 8.46 67.21 69.25 168 6.02 10.94 76.54 82.95 192 9.70 11.26 82.66 94.12 216 12.21 6.71 98.14 100.18 240 17.50 5.72 101.43 115.18 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.10 1.35 1.40 48 0.00 0.08 1.58 1.56 72 0.03 0.07 1.80 1.80 96 -0.04 0.09 2.11 2.10 120 0.06 0.09 2.62 2.42 144 0.04 0.11 2.95 2.72 168 0.13 0.21 3.30 3.02 192 0.14 0.15 3.51 3.53 216 -0.20 0.02 3.99 3.79 240 -0.07 -0.09 4.28 3.93 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.23 0.95 0.99 48 0.13 0.25 1.15 1.23 72 0.12 0.29 1.37 1.62 96 0.11 0.40 1.62 1.90 120 0.22 0.44 2.04 2.12 144 0.30 0.52 2.41 2.62 168 0.28 0.54 2.62 2.93 192 0.40 0.65 2.86 3.15 216 0.49 0.66 3.17 3.20 240 0.58 0.62 3.37 3.62 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.41 1.23 1.30 48 0.40 0.47 1.51 1.59 72 0.42 0.48 1.76 1.96 96 0.40 0.48 2.05 2.36 120 0.43 0.48 2.45 2.62 144 0.53 0.69 2.82 3.08 168 0.54 0.95 3.16 3.23 192 0.60 0.87 3.38 3.53 216 0.43 0.71 3.46 3.53 240 0.47 0.60 3.62 3.63 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.20 4.20 4.19 48 -0.36 -0.30 4.92 4.72 72 -0.51 -0.28 5.48 5.32 96 -0.34 -0.17 6.31 6.34 120 -0.42 -0.40 7.37 6.97 144 -0.36 -0.42 7.88 7.92 168 -0.39 -0.26 8.49 8.85 192 -0.56 -0.17 9.16 9.63 216 -1.05 -0.54 9.77 9.54 240 -0.99 -0.87 10.00 9.86 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.67 4.21 4.50 48 -0.60 -0.80 5.29 5.40 72 -0.84 -1.09 6.45 6.62 96 -0.96 -1.15 7.67 7.81 120 -0.87 -1.06 9.31 8.96 144 -1.19 -1.29 10.17 10.13 168 -1.21 -1.13 11.25 11.56 192 -1.15 -1.33 12.18 12.48 216 -1.44 -1.28 12.29 12.66 240 -1.67 -1.39 13.13 13.07 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.76 5.51 5.93 48 -0.79 -0.99 7.18 7.54 72 -0.87 -1.24 9.38 9.29 96 -1.27 -1.05 11.50 11.36 120 -1.24 -1.04 14.05 13.44 144 -1.27 -1.13 15.88 15.46 168 -1.49 -1.07 16.92 17.90 192 -1.13 -1.58 18.68 19.12 216 -1.37 -1.23 19.28 19.69 240 -1.45 -0.92 20.55 21.10