VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 19.0 19.6 48 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 26.7 26.9 72 0.2 0.2 2.4 2.4 1.0 1.0 34.1 34.1 96 0.3 0.2 3.4 3.4 0.9 0.9 42.2 41.9 120 0.3 0.3 4.4 4.5 0.9 0.9 49.4 49.6 144 0.3 0.3 5.4 5.5 0.9 0.9 56.3 56.5 168 0.3 0.3 6.6 6.7 0.8 0.8 63.1 63.3 192 0.3 0.3 7.4 7.5 0.8 0.8 67.6 67.8 216 0.4 0.4 8.4 8.4 0.7 0.7 72.4 72.5 240 0.4 0.3 9.3 9.1 0.7 0.7 76.0 75.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.6 -0.6 7.6 7.7 1.0 1.0 11.2 11.2 48 -1.1 -1.5 13.9 13.8 1.0 1.0 17.1 17.1 72 -0.4 -0.8 21.9 21.6 1.0 1.0 23.4 23.2 96 -0.4 -0.6 32.4 31.7 1.0 1.0 29.7 29.8 120 -0.9 -0.8 42.7 43.1 0.9 0.9 35.5 35.9 144 -1.1 -1.1 54.7 54.8 0.9 0.9 41.3 41.4 168 -1.6 -1.4 67.8 67.8 0.9 0.9 46.8 46.6 192 -1.8 -1.7 77.9 77.1 0.8 0.8 51.1 50.7 216 -1.8 -1.7 88.0 88.2 0.8 0.8 54.8 54.8 240 -2.9 -2.4 99.1 97.5 0.7 0.7 58.5 57.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.1 1.9 9.6 9.7 1.0 1.0 8.7 8.7 48 3.4 3.0 17.9 17.4 1.0 1.0 13.1 13.0 72 5.3 5.0 27.9 27.3 1.0 1.0 17.8 17.7 96 6.1 5.9 41.2 39.4 1.0 1.0 23.0 22.7 120 5.4 5.7 55.4 54.8 0.9 0.9 28.0 28.2 144 5.1 5.2 70.8 70.2 0.9 0.9 33.0 33.0 168 4.6 4.8 87.3 87.3 0.9 0.9 38.1 37.8 192 3.8 4.3 100.1 100.0 0.8 0.8 42.0 41.5 216 1.3 2.1 112.8 114.4 0.8 0.8 45.4 45.7 240 -0.8 0.7 129.1 126.7 0.7 0.7 49.3 48.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 96 0.2 0.2 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 144 0.1 0.2 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.9 168 0.2 0.1 3.2 3.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.1 0.1 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 216 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.9 0.8 0.8 240 0.1 0.1 4.2 4.1 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 -0.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 -0.1 -0.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 2.7 0.9 0.9 144 -0.3 -0.3 3.0 3.0 0.9 0.8 168 -0.4 -0.3 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.8 192 -0.5 -0.5 3.7 3.6 0.8 0.8 216 -0.7 -0.7 4.0 3.9 0.8 0.8 240 -0.8 -0.8 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.2 3.2 48 -0.2 -0.2 4.7 4.7 72 -0.3 -0.2 6.2 6.2 96 -0.3 -0.3 7.9 7.9 120 -0.3 -0.3 9.3 9.5 144 -0.4 -0.4 11.0 10.9 168 -0.4 -0.4 12.5 12.5 192 -0.4 -0.4 13.8 13.7 216 -0.5 -0.5 14.8 14.8 240 -0.4 -0.4 16.0 15.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.0 4.0 48 -0.5 -0.5 5.9 5.8 72 -0.6 -0.5 7.8 7.7 96 -0.7 -0.6 9.9 9.7 120 -0.7 -0.7 12.1 12.3 144 -0.7 -0.7 14.4 14.4 168 -0.8 -0.8 16.8 16.6 192 -0.9 -0.9 18.6 18.3 216 -1.0 -0.9 20.3 20.3 240 -0.9 -0.9 22.4 21.9 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.0 -1.3 4.0 4.1 0.9 0.9 33.3 33.8 48 -1.8 -2.0 5.6 5.8 0.9 0.9 39.9 40.8 72 -3.5 -3.7 7.3 7.4 0.9 0.9 43.4 44.1 96 -4.5 -4.7 8.8 8.8 0.9 0.9 46.5 47.5 120 -5.4 -5.8 9.8 10.1 0.9 0.8 49.2 50.2 144 -6.2 -6.8 11.2 11.3 0.8 0.8 51.8 52.8 168 -6.5 -7.0 11.8 12.3 0.8 0.8 54.3 55.3 192 -7.0 -7.2 13.2 13.0 0.8 0.8 56.4 57.1 216 -8.0 -7.8 15.1 14.5 0.8 0.8 61.6 61.6 240 -8.3 -8.2 15.8 15.3 0.7 0.7 63.9 63.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.8 1.4 5.4 5.3 0.9 0.9 29.9 30.3 48 2.4 2.1 8.0 8.1 0.9 0.9 36.1 36.5 72 2.0 1.9 10.1 10.1 0.9 0.9 40.2 40.9 96 2.0 2.0 11.9 11.9 0.9 0.9 43.5 44.0 120 1.9 1.9 14.4 14.3 0.9 0.9 46.8 47.2 144 1.7 1.3 16.8 16.7 0.9 0.9 49.8 50.0 168 1.9 1.4 19.2 18.8 0.8 0.8 52.8 53.1 192 1.4 1.3 21.2 20.6 0.8 0.8 55.6 55.6 216 -0.8 -0.6 23.3 22.4 0.8 0.8 58.4 58.4 240 -2.7 -2.2 25.8 24.6 0.8 0.8 60.9 60.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 120 0.4 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.4 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 192 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 216 0.2 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 240 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.9 48 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.4 72 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.9 96 0.1 0.1 3.3 3.3 120 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.6 144 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.9 168 -0.1 -0.1 4.3 4.2 192 -0.1 -0.1 4.6 4.5 216 0.0 -0.1 5.0 4.8 240 -0.1 -0.1 5.3 5.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.4 4.4 4.4 48 -0.6 -0.7 5.7 5.8 72 -0.7 -0.8 6.7 6.7 96 -0.7 -0.8 7.5 7.5 120 -0.7 -0.8 8.4 8.3 144 -0.7 -0.7 9.1 9.0 168 -0.7 -0.8 9.8 9.8 192 -0.8 -0.7 10.4 10.3 216 -0.6 -0.7 10.9 10.9 240 -0.6 -0.6 11.5 11.4 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 18.3 18.3 48 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.0 26.1 26.7 72 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.8 1.0 1.0 33.6 34.0 96 0.0 0.1 3.8 3.6 0.9 0.9 41.2 40.9 120 0.1 0.1 4.8 4.6 0.9 0.9 47.4 47.2 144 0.1 0.2 5.6 5.6 0.8 0.8 52.6 52.7 168 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.8 0.8 57.2 57.6 192 0.3 0.2 7.4 7.4 0.8 0.8 60.6 61.9 216 0.4 0.3 8.1 8.1 0.7 0.7 64.3 65.3 240 0.5 0.4 8.5 8.5 0.7 0.7 66.7 67.5 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.8 0.9 9.0 8.9 1.0 1.0 12.9 12.9 48 1.2 1.6 16.0 16.4 1.0 1.0 19.4 19.6 72 1.6 1.7 25.0 25.6 1.0 1.0 25.8 26.1 96 1.7 1.7 36.5 35.3 0.9 1.0 32.7 32.2 120 2.4 2.3 47.6 46.8 0.9 0.9 38.6 38.6 144 2.6 2.9 57.9 58.3 0.9 0.9 43.9 44.0 168 2.7 3.0 69.1 70.2 0.8 0.8 48.8 48.9 192 3.3 3.2 80.1 81.5 0.8 0.8 53.1 53.3 216 3.7 3.6 90.3 90.7 0.7 0.7 56.7 57.1 240 4.0 4.1 96.6 96.5 0.7 0.7 59.3 59.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.7 2.7 11.4 11.5 1.0 1.0 10.8 10.8 48 4.8 5.2 21.2 21.8 1.0 1.0 16.7 16.9 72 6.3 6.5 33.3 34.3 1.0 1.0 22.9 23.2 96 7.1 6.9 48.4 47.8 1.0 1.0 29.4 29.3 120 8.1 7.9 64.8 63.9 0.9 0.9 35.5 35.6 144 8.5 8.6 80.1 81.3 0.9 0.9 41.2 41.2 168 8.6 8.8 96.5 98.5 0.9 0.8 46.0 46.2 192 9.4 9.2 111.5 114.7 0.8 0.8 50.4 50.8 216 8.1 8.1 125.7 128.3 0.8 0.8 54.0 54.5 240 7.3 7.5 137.1 137.1 0.7 0.7 57.0 57.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.2 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.8 192 0.3 0.3 3.4 3.5 0.8 0.7 216 0.3 0.3 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.7 240 0.3 0.3 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.2 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.9 120 -0.2 -0.2 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 144 -0.3 -0.3 3.4 3.3 0.8 0.8 168 -0.4 -0.4 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 192 -0.5 -0.5 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 -0.7 -0.7 4.3 4.2 0.7 0.7 240 -0.8 -0.8 4.4 4.4 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.4 3.3 48 -0.2 -0.2 4.8 4.9 72 -0.3 -0.3 6.3 6.4 96 -0.5 -0.5 8.0 7.8 120 -0.6 -0.6 9.4 9.4 144 -0.7 -0.7 10.7 10.8 168 -0.7 -0.7 12.0 12.1 192 -0.8 -0.7 13.2 13.3 216 -0.8 -0.8 14.2 14.3 240 -0.9 -0.8 15.0 15.0 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.5 4.5 48 -0.3 -0.3 6.7 6.7 72 -0.5 -0.4 9.0 9.0 96 -0.5 -0.5 11.5 11.3 120 -0.6 -0.6 13.8 13.8 144 -0.7 -0.7 16.1 16.3 168 -0.7 -0.7 18.1 18.3 192 -0.8 -0.8 20.0 20.3 216 -0.8 -0.8 21.7 21.8 240 -0.9 -0.8 23.2 23.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.41 -3.41 8.65 8.77 48 -5.26 -6.98 12.70 13.49 72 -6.61 -7.04 18.05 18.47 96 -4.86 -4.88 24.40 26.32 120 -0.37 -0.27 32.93 32.62 144 1.43 1.24 38.30 42.27 168 2.08 -1.19 46.43 47.66 192 -0.67 -1.00 53.08 52.07 216 -1.10 -0.44 58.88 60.41 240 3.31 3.26 58.44 58.98 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.88 -3.58 10.58 10.66 48 -4.81 -7.57 17.29 17.65 72 -5.97 -7.02 25.44 25.58 96 -4.67 -4.34 37.05 37.18 120 -0.29 0.74 50.55 49.40 144 3.68 2.99 62.33 63.23 168 1.30 2.01 73.77 73.84 192 7.44 5.40 85.64 82.64 216 8.41 4.11 94.82 90.69 240 8.44 10.59 98.28 95.65 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.90 0.77 13.80 12.69 48 2.58 -0.80 22.12 20.62 72 1.75 1.28 33.49 32.74 96 3.22 6.13 48.19 48.33 120 9.54 11.89 69.09 65.87 144 15.56 17.08 87.97 87.75 168 15.29 19.89 104.96 102.76 192 26.14 25.92 120.83 114.29 216 24.81 21.52 130.32 125.51 240 18.76 21.04 131.67 136.82 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.06 1.60 1.55 48 0.00 -0.10 1.85 1.74 72 0.01 -0.04 2.15 2.04 96 0.03 0.07 2.59 2.55 120 0.03 0.06 3.10 3.10 144 0.18 0.03 3.52 3.68 168 0.20 -0.02 4.11 4.18 192 0.19 0.12 4.83 4.66 216 0.27 0.05 5.29 5.15 240 0.05 0.01 5.40 5.59 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.14 0.93 0.91 48 0.26 0.19 1.31 1.25 72 0.28 0.26 1.76 1.71 96 0.24 0.31 2.28 2.24 120 0.21 0.32 2.77 2.68 144 0.36 0.40 3.28 3.34 168 0.43 0.53 3.78 3.72 192 0.80 0.80 4.38 4.09 216 0.78 0.70 4.52 4.30 240 0.49 0.63 4.50 4.51 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.33 1.35 1.31 48 0.37 0.39 1.79 1.72 72 0.33 0.32 2.20 2.18 96 0.25 0.27 2.75 2.72 120 0.29 0.34 3.20 3.22 144 0.28 0.47 3.59 3.61 168 0.38 0.52 3.90 3.77 192 0.32 0.37 4.25 3.95 216 -0.05 0.10 4.35 4.05 240 -0.24 -0.06 4.37 4.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.49 4.18 4.20 48 -0.12 -0.58 4.78 4.86 72 -0.14 -0.52 5.75 5.82 96 -0.36 -0.69 6.77 7.11 120 -0.59 -0.91 7.68 8.14 144 -0.70 -0.87 8.51 9.51 168 -0.86 -0.69 10.07 10.49 192 -0.52 -0.72 11.12 11.47 216 -0.45 -1.08 12.11 12.12 240 -1.08 -0.89 11.49 12.35 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.40 4.52 4.56 48 -0.64 -0.56 6.02 5.94 72 -0.70 -0.57 7.75 7.67 96 -0.82 -0.62 9.09 9.54 120 -1.05 -0.82 10.64 11.24 144 -1.24 -0.81 12.74 13.21 168 -1.12 -0.92 14.14 14.35 192 -0.91 -0.68 15.63 15.74 216 -1.17 -1.07 17.13 16.64 240 -0.92 -0.86 17.36 17.57 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.73 6.05 5.67 48 -0.72 -0.86 7.53 7.50 72 -0.66 -0.83 9.94 10.01 96 -0.80 -0.65 12.15 12.75 120 -0.85 -0.70 15.19 15.08 144 -0.75 -0.94 18.15 18.39 168 -0.98 -1.16 19.61 20.46 192 -0.74 -0.88 22.27 21.93 216 -1.18 -1.61 24.62 24.19 240 -1.04 -1.59 24.64 25.42 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -1.94 8.12 8.11 48 0.34 -1.32 11.48 11.05 72 4.25 2.95 18.88 16.93 96 6.84 4.82 25.57 22.63 120 9.21 9.46 32.02 29.09 144 18.61 14.72 41.57 40.12 168 21.83 24.14 53.42 53.70 192 16.87 25.57 65.73 58.61 216 9.91 24.71 76.26 72.62 240 15.35 15.73 90.22 77.88 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.75 -0.43 11.02 10.28 48 2.77 1.12 17.02 15.32 72 6.77 6.58 27.39 24.61 96 10.57 8.74 40.43 35.32 120 18.68 14.63 51.57 47.93 144 22.34 21.44 61.41 59.97 168 28.49 30.30 85.28 82.02 192 29.12 35.05 97.43 91.81 216 22.13 32.26 111.13 111.67 240 29.29 16.12 134.85 119.16 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.87 2.54 13.80 12.72 48 9.88 8.16 22.31 19.78 72 15.28 16.61 36.40 33.79 96 19.97 19.75 54.41 45.64 120 31.19 28.44 74.22 65.98 144 38.08 34.45 89.23 81.59 168 49.81 38.74 116.90 108.76 192 50.06 53.03 134.60 132.52 216 44.65 50.36 146.46 154.26 240 41.52 33.47 157.66 149.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.34 1.30 1.24 48 0.38 0.38 1.56 1.48 72 0.40 0.48 1.83 1.74 96 0.44 0.39 2.16 1.99 120 0.64 0.49 2.65 2.36 144 0.58 0.49 2.82 2.59 168 0.49 0.49 3.48 3.27 192 0.90 0.72 3.81 3.88 216 0.62 0.39 4.14 4.17 240 0.62 0.19 4.49 4.35 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.24 0.83 0.82 48 0.35 0.40 1.20 1.20 72 0.39 0.55 1.53 1.60 96 0.49 0.55 2.20 2.15 120 0.68 0.77 2.82 2.70 144 0.80 0.69 3.37 3.02 168 0.86 0.84 3.95 3.59 192 1.26 1.11 4.40 4.28 216 1.21 1.15 4.61 4.71 240 1.48 0.87 5.22 4.91 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.19 1.15 1.09 48 0.24 0.12 1.50 1.42 72 0.21 0.07 1.85 1.89 96 0.12 0.06 2.44 2.48 120 0.04 -0.05 2.83 2.85 144 -0.12 -0.03 3.16 3.08 168 -0.11 -0.24 3.49 3.34 192 -0.26 -0.39 3.80 3.62 216 -0.34 -0.54 4.04 3.99 240 -0.54 -0.50 4.34 4.24 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.46 3.80 3.84 48 -0.30 -0.46 4.63 4.43 72 -0.22 -0.26 5.52 5.49 96 -0.27 -0.21 6.44 6.40 120 -0.21 -0.35 7.26 7.20 144 -0.54 -0.67 8.62 8.06 168 -0.67 -1.06 9.50 9.24 192 -0.60 -1.11 10.18 9.96 216 -0.58 -1.23 11.25 10.83 240 -0.93 -1.07 12.02 11.42 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.51 4.42 4.33 48 -0.58 -0.63 5.94 5.65 72 -0.62 -0.50 7.61 7.09 96 -0.57 -0.71 9.67 9.54 120 -0.52 -0.90 11.33 11.11 144 -0.87 -0.89 12.90 12.69 168 -0.61 -0.91 15.51 15.12 192 -0.25 -1.36 15.97 16.61 216 -0.68 -1.30 17.45 17.98 240 -0.92 -1.30 19.23 18.64 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.32 4.54 4.71 48 -0.22 -0.40 6.24 6.11 72 -0.18 -0.27 8.48 8.29 96 -0.55 -0.66 11.37 10.43 120 -0.43 -0.76 13.73 13.20 144 -0.61 -0.50 17.17 16.06 168 -0.12 -0.50 21.09 19.98 192 0.10 -1.04 23.30 22.63 216 0.14 -0.47 24.85 25.89 240 -0.68 -0.82 27.80 25.74 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.29 9.29 8.52 48 0.99 0.62 11.56 10.49 72 4.08 3.25 14.53 12.81 96 5.61 4.07 18.29 17.31 120 4.74 3.78 22.51 21.50 144 3.27 2.53 26.22 26.62 168 0.51 1.33 32.54 32.87 192 -1.22 -0.76 37.59 38.33 216 5.22 0.67 44.04 45.38 240 3.21 0.68 47.11 47.82 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.38 14.14 13.78 48 0.04 -1.05 16.73 16.41 72 3.32 1.34 20.48 20.15 96 4.99 2.80 25.81 25.42 120 3.85 1.70 31.52 31.80 144 2.82 1.07 39.08 39.56 168 0.29 -0.29 49.51 51.54 192 1.46 -0.04 56.71 60.08 216 7.48 3.93 65.99 70.88 240 8.17 6.46 72.24 75.75 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.25 18.80 19.10 48 1.96 0.15 21.76 22.55 72 5.20 3.77 26.84 27.50 96 7.86 5.27 34.44 34.47 120 6.10 4.49 41.35 41.41 144 4.97 4.42 49.70 51.05 168 1.19 1.31 65.13 68.65 192 -0.28 0.66 75.69 80.36 216 4.12 0.98 89.48 94.78 240 1.13 3.31 100.21 100.78 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 -0.01 1.61 1.71 48 0.20 -0.04 1.86 1.99 72 0.26 -0.03 2.10 2.21 96 0.24 -0.06 2.32 2.46 120 0.21 -0.05 2.65 2.67 144 0.21 -0.05 3.01 3.02 168 0.16 -0.02 3.46 3.70 192 0.35 0.12 3.75 4.10 216 0.36 0.23 4.18 4.69 240 0.57 0.67 4.82 5.01 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 -0.03 1.01 1.05 48 0.07 -0.05 1.20 1.26 72 0.06 -0.05 1.40 1.49 96 0.06 -0.09 1.70 1.75 120 0.05 -0.06 1.99 2.08 144 0.07 0.02 2.39 2.37 168 0.08 0.00 2.85 2.97 192 0.08 0.03 3.19 3.36 216 0.09 -0.03 3.57 3.82 240 0.13 0.12 3.98 3.98 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.16 1.27 1.24 48 0.09 0.12 1.47 1.47 72 0.05 0.11 1.75 1.73 96 -0.02 0.14 2.08 2.02 120 -0.12 0.06 2.35 2.37 144 -0.24 -0.11 2.70 2.69 168 -0.36 -0.14 3.06 3.12 192 -0.59 -0.35 3.31 3.38 216 -0.95 -0.73 3.69 3.68 240 -1.27 -0.96 4.01 3.92 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.65 3.70 3.59 48 -0.83 -0.69 4.16 4.05 72 -0.94 -0.79 4.62 4.57 96 -1.01 -0.90 5.14 5.02 120 -0.95 -0.91 5.88 5.65 144 -1.01 -0.92 6.55 6.22 168 -1.02 -0.76 7.25 7.27 192 -1.12 -0.73 7.98 8.13 216 -1.08 -0.86 8.42 8.43 240 -1.09 -1.24 8.74 8.62 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.45 4.36 4.38 48 -0.64 -0.51 5.13 5.18 72 -0.63 -0.55 6.01 6.13 96 -0.81 -0.70 7.13 7.07 120 -0.85 -0.86 8.20 7.98 144 -0.90 -0.78 9.22 9.05 168 -0.75 -0.75 10.57 10.51 192 -0.93 -0.89 11.70 11.79 216 -1.26 -1.15 12.66 12.62 240 -1.66 -1.70 13.45 13.23 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.78 5.33 5.27 48 -1.22 -1.11 6.25 6.26 72 -1.44 -1.31 7.43 7.40 96 -1.34 -1.33 8.67 8.54 120 -1.47 -1.64 9.78 9.67 144 -1.59 -1.58 10.82 11.28 168 -1.66 -1.56 13.15 13.24 192 -2.24 -2.09 14.83 14.94 216 -2.42 -2.34 16.64 16.40 240 -2.83 -2.79 18.00 17.43 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.88 -7.43 10.81 10.82 48 -5.88 -5.59 10.08 12.93 72 -3.84 -4.52 12.83 17.74 96 -5.04 -5.39 17.18 19.80 120 -7.13 -5.51 22.59 26.42 144 -5.74 -3.87 24.19 27.49 168 -5.11 -1.97 26.63 31.36 192 -5.22 -2.05 29.10 38.79 216 -5.74 -4.48 32.56 42.26 240 -7.11 -5.66 36.82 46.14 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.41 -11.36 12.71 14.73 48 -7.31 -7.62 13.48 17.55 72 -4.60 -8.03 16.17 22.18 96 -5.99 -9.30 22.06 26.84 120 -9.13 -8.95 28.90 34.37 144 -7.86 -7.46 32.43 37.91 168 -7.67 -5.25 36.80 44.50 192 -6.36 -4.82 40.83 50.46 216 -6.34 -5.41 44.49 59.62 240 -8.65 -10.81 51.44 67.76 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.28 -5.85 12.75 15.30 48 1.58 0.29 18.38 20.69 72 6.07 1.23 27.11 28.36 96 4.15 -2.52 34.45 35.83 120 -1.08 -0.81 43.38 51.27 144 0.99 1.73 47.06 56.92 168 1.76 4.49 54.16 66.46 192 4.27 6.67 62.46 73.90 216 3.35 5.59 67.63 82.58 240 -0.44 -3.03 76.58 98.40 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.11 1.17 1.06 48 -0.05 -0.13 1.36 1.25 72 -0.01 -0.11 1.51 1.46 96 0.10 -0.04 1.71 1.66 120 0.16 0.03 2.07 1.97 144 0.19 0.04 2.10 2.23 168 0.13 0.12 2.46 2.64 192 0.16 0.06 2.84 2.75 216 0.28 0.34 2.98 3.27 240 0.19 0.06 3.43 3.51 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.10 0.88 0.87 48 0.15 0.21 1.05 1.10 72 0.24 0.25 1.18 1.15 96 0.22 0.13 1.46 1.40 120 0.12 0.19 1.59 1.67 144 0.12 0.24 1.79 1.96 168 0.15 0.19 1.94 2.06 192 0.23 0.16 2.02 2.11 216 0.24 0.35 2.19 2.57 240 0.21 0.25 2.33 2.68 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.59 0.55 1.04 1.14 48 0.71 0.69 1.35 1.49 72 0.72 0.68 1.64 1.72 96 0.70 0.67 1.80 1.82 120 0.63 0.65 1.96 2.07 144 0.69 0.72 2.15 2.27 168 0.76 0.62 2.33 2.36 192 0.73 0.63 2.39 2.33 216 0.61 0.56 2.67 2.63 240 0.48 0.60 2.73 2.91 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.05 3.92 3.91 48 -0.36 -0.12 4.62 4.49 72 -0.46 -0.12 5.39 5.48 96 -0.61 -0.34 5.92 5.66 120 -0.66 -0.34 6.77 6.38 144 -0.56 -0.30 7.15 7.02 168 -0.86 -0.25 7.43 7.69 192 -0.67 -0.45 7.99 8.02 216 -0.73 -0.73 8.50 8.18 240 -0.96 -1.09 8.97 8.56 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.34 3.89 4.03 48 -0.76 -0.63 4.63 4.81 72 -0.86 -0.84 5.56 5.57 96 -0.92 -0.79 6.56 6.76 120 -1.04 -1.02 7.47 7.85 144 -0.94 -1.09 8.24 8.07 168 -0.85 -0.95 8.66 9.42 192 -1.04 -0.62 9.52 9.53 216 -0.74 -0.73 10.22 10.73 240 -0.58 -0.95 10.99 11.33 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.54 5.60 5.95 48 -0.90 -0.75 7.33 7.51 72 -1.39 -1.16 8.76 9.15 96 -1.37 -1.21 10.50 10.51 120 -1.29 -1.33 12.31 12.55 144 -1.76 -1.30 13.52 13.84 168 -1.26 -1.17 14.25 15.41 192 -1.57 -1.25 15.89 16.63 216 -1.38 -1.27 17.63 17.91 240 -1.22 -1.11 18.07 19.45 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.21 -6.03 10.69 10.91 48 -4.93 -5.37 10.72 11.16 72 -5.42 -6.18 11.61 12.02 96 -5.98 -6.92 12.97 13.34 120 -7.21 -8.14 14.16 14.46 144 -7.49 -9.27 15.13 15.68 168 -7.57 -10.17 15.42 16.59 192 -7.54 -10.12 16.15 17.71 216 -8.63 -11.49 18.14 19.10 240 -9.63 -11.79 19.13 19.64 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.11 -7.91 13.47 14.01 48 -6.86 -7.41 13.63 14.14 72 -7.53 -8.48 14.48 15.03 96 -8.00 -8.57 15.46 15.65 120 -9.01 -9.64 16.23 16.48 144 -9.55 -10.76 17.09 17.63 168 -9.63 -11.51 17.70 18.54 192 -10.09 -11.69 18.44 19.28 216 -10.43 -12.97 19.91 20.81 240 -11.68 -13.55 20.85 21.35 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.12 -5.04 14.15 14.07 48 -1.70 -2.69 14.56 14.15 72 -1.31 -2.30 15.36 14.87 96 -1.30 -1.63 16.23 16.32 120 -2.40 -2.56 17.16 17.02 144 -3.25 -3.70 17.99 18.70 168 -4.01 -4.98 19.63 20.15 192 -5.01 -5.97 21.54 21.52 216 -8.22 -9.31 24.15 23.87 240 -10.34 -10.99 25.37 26.18 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.01 1.01 1.06 48 0.06 0.01 1.05 1.10 72 0.05 0.03 1.08 1.14 96 0.07 0.02 1.11 1.17 120 0.07 0.04 1.18 1.23 144 0.05 0.03 1.21 1.30 168 0.06 0.03 1.27 1.34 192 0.04 0.01 1.33 1.41 216 0.10 -0.07 1.37 1.48 240 0.06 -0.09 1.46 1.50 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.05 0.83 0.84 48 -0.04 0.00 0.87 0.91 72 0.00 0.02 0.94 0.94 96 0.01 0.09 0.95 1.04 120 0.02 0.10 1.01 1.08 144 0.02 0.10 1.05 1.15 168 -0.01 0.08 1.09 1.17 192 -0.03 0.06 1.15 1.21 216 -0.02 0.05 1.17 1.24 240 -0.04 0.02 1.21 1.29 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.44 0.88 0.82 48 0.59 0.53 0.98 0.93 72 0.65 0.63 1.07 1.04 96 0.67 0.63 1.12 1.11 120 0.68 0.65 1.17 1.16 144 0.67 0.66 1.21 1.21 168 0.62 0.63 1.24 1.24 192 0.61 0.61 1.24 1.26 216 0.32 0.35 1.21 1.19 240 0.24 0.30 1.22 1.21 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.40 3.84 3.83 48 -0.54 -0.36 4.19 4.16 72 -0.49 -0.34 4.48 4.43 96 -0.56 -0.36 4.74 4.61 120 -0.61 -0.42 4.93 4.82 144 -0.61 -0.51 5.41 5.04 168 -0.69 -0.54 5.50 5.31 192 -0.64 -0.59 5.79 5.52 216 -0.56 -0.67 5.95 5.62 240 -0.58 -0.59 6.24 5.83 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.90 4.20 4.11 48 -1.08 -0.98 4.66 4.56 72 -1.07 -0.96 4.96 4.95 96 -1.10 -0.95 5.30 5.34 120 -1.18 -1.09 5.71 5.68 144 -1.29 -1.21 6.18 5.99 168 -1.30 -1.10 6.28 6.41 192 -1.36 -1.12 6.66 6.77 216 -1.54 -1.43 7.10 7.26 240 -1.52 -1.38 7.57 7.52 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.47 5.75 5.66 48 -0.60 -0.76 6.38 6.49 72 -0.69 -0.81 6.75 7.06 96 -0.76 -1.05 7.39 7.76 120 -0.80 -0.90 8.06 8.35 144 -0.76 -0.75 8.39 8.74 168 -0.71 -0.88 9.13 9.45 192 -0.88 -0.75 9.61 10.03 216 -0.66 -0.45 9.85 10.46 240 -0.59 -0.45 10.17 10.67 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.89 -2.41 9.36 8.97 48 -2.26 -3.51 13.02 12.96 72 -1.42 -2.09 19.20 18.40 96 -0.03 -0.66 25.71 24.94 120 1.80 2.15 32.47 33.67 144 4.26 3.63 40.23 42.53 168 5.23 3.39 51.88 51.54 192 2.02 4.11 57.41 56.61 216 3.63 4.14 67.31 67.17 240 4.20 3.50 73.45 70.50 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -1.71 12.50 11.84 48 -1.65 -3.05 18.26 17.34 72 -0.83 -1.32 26.39 25.67 96 0.93 -0.05 37.14 36.17 120 3.02 3.33 49.71 49.37 144 4.86 3.46 61.07 61.29 168 7.03 4.76 76.60 76.83 192 6.12 6.24 87.18 86.07 216 6.25 5.71 99.11 99.58 240 7.35 3.79 112.06 108.30 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.63 1.37 15.74 14.93 48 4.24 2.44 22.69 21.55 72 5.95 5.83 33.86 32.89 96 7.90 7.43 47.73 46.31 120 12.09 11.74 65.51 62.55 144 14.83 14.19 81.21 79.80 168 18.44 17.40 101.31 99.95 192 18.55 18.47 116.17 115.55 216 16.21 15.65 130.09 131.50 240 14.52 11.81 147.58 142.16 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.12 1.47 1.48 48 0.14 0.10 1.74 1.74 72 0.15 0.11 2.04 2.04 96 0.16 0.12 2.41 2.47 120 0.17 0.15 2.96 2.93 144 0.17 0.07 3.33 3.37 168 0.17 0.04 3.90 3.95 192 0.27 0.11 4.44 4.44 216 0.12 -0.01 4.87 4.91 240 0.10 -0.11 5.20 5.28 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.15 0.93 0.92 48 0.24 0.22 1.27 1.25 72 0.26 0.30 1.67 1.68 96 0.30 0.26 2.15 2.14 120 0.33 0.35 2.69 2.64 144 0.37 0.34 3.09 3.13 168 0.46 0.40 3.64 3.61 192 0.62 0.50 4.07 4.08 216 0.49 0.44 4.40 4.37 240 0.51 0.40 4.75 4.69 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.21 1.26 1.21 48 0.23 0.17 1.63 1.56 72 0.16 0.13 2.02 2.02 96 0.06 0.07 2.53 2.56 120 -0.04 -0.01 2.99 3.01 144 -0.09 0.01 3.34 3.29 168 -0.12 -0.09 3.66 3.63 192 -0.22 -0.22 3.95 3.92 216 -0.53 -0.45 4.24 4.12 240 -0.74 -0.61 4.47 4.42 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.54 3.94 3.92 48 -0.46 -0.58 4.61 4.66 72 -0.45 -0.56 5.46 5.52 96 -0.55 -0.59 6.45 6.54 120 -0.63 -0.69 7.39 7.46 144 -0.72 -0.75 8.40 8.40 168 -0.76 -0.74 9.45 9.55 192 -0.65 -0.71 10.28 10.26 216 -0.77 -0.91 11.01 10.86 240 -0.95 -0.80 11.29 11.28 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.45 4.29 4.33 48 -0.56 -0.55 5.69 5.67 72 -0.64 -0.49 7.27 7.26 96 -0.68 -0.60 8.86 9.10 120 -0.71 -0.65 10.55 10.67 144 -0.85 -0.62 12.11 12.29 168 -0.65 -0.67 13.91 13.65 192 -0.50 -0.75 14.97 15.08 216 -0.75 -0.86 16.14 16.14 240 -0.72 -0.70 17.05 17.16 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.46 5.11 5.00 48 -0.57 -0.55 6.51 6.54 72 -0.50 -0.52 8.54 8.62 96 -0.77 -0.56 10.95 10.78 120 -0.64 -0.61 13.25 13.10 144 -0.64 -0.73 15.74 15.53 168 -0.41 -0.65 18.30 18.31 192 -0.47 -0.85 20.12 19.90 216 -0.57 -0.78 22.05 22.14 240 -0.38 -0.70 23.47 23.32 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.99 -6.83 10.37 11.67 48 -6.22 -6.80 12.39 15.60 72 -5.40 -7.51 16.51 19.23 96 -6.03 -8.76 20.99 24.24 120 -8.70 -9.39 26.34 29.02 144 -8.25 -9.86 29.28 32.89 168 -8.32 -11.52 35.08 39.90 192 -8.21 -10.02 38.98 43.85 216 -7.05 -9.83 44.07 46.81 240 -6.46 -7.58 45.51 51.80 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.44 -6.24 13.46 12.63 48 -6.51 -5.60 15.70 17.74 72 -5.09 -6.27 20.64 21.88 96 -6.16 -6.66 26.76 28.84 120 -7.90 -7.18 34.38 37.05 144 -7.32 -7.76 38.85 42.69 168 -6.93 -9.31 44.84 50.99 192 -5.13 -8.32 51.20 56.60 216 -5.83 -6.44 58.21 63.16 240 -6.60 -3.77 63.37 70.70 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 0.87 16.69 15.11 48 2.53 4.12 21.70 22.58 72 5.12 5.19 30.81 30.01 96 3.42 5.82 38.50 38.65 120 2.21 6.27 49.79 51.17 144 3.43 5.23 55.12 61.23 168 5.71 7.37 65.33 74.39 192 8.72 8.27 74.35 82.82 216 6.81 7.19 82.63 90.87 240 5.52 11.16 93.42 100.96 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 0.13 1.31 1.41 48 -0.11 0.10 1.47 1.54 72 -0.09 0.09 1.60 1.77 96 -0.01 0.18 1.84 1.94 120 0.09 0.22 2.24 2.27 144 0.13 0.21 2.42 2.48 168 0.21 0.17 2.77 2.86 192 0.22 0.05 3.15 3.11 216 -0.21 0.05 3.58 3.33 240 -0.36 0.01 4.00 3.60 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.14 0.99 1.01 48 0.16 0.20 1.15 1.20 72 0.22 0.26 1.42 1.43 96 0.24 0.31 1.66 1.64 120 0.21 0.33 1.86 1.99 144 0.20 0.34 2.08 2.29 168 0.27 0.34 2.30 2.58 192 0.36 0.34 2.46 2.77 216 0.28 0.46 2.61 3.06 240 0.31 0.51 2.88 3.27 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.37 1.16 1.26 48 0.56 0.42 1.46 1.65 72 0.55 0.41 1.87 2.00 96 0.50 0.31 2.17 2.40 120 0.44 0.31 2.48 2.70 144 0.48 0.32 2.79 3.04 168 0.51 0.30 3.00 3.36 192 0.44 0.31 3.22 3.48 216 0.39 0.21 3.40 3.53 240 0.26 0.03 3.50 3.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.37 4.14 4.31 48 -0.53 -0.41 4.88 4.90 72 -0.63 -0.57 5.54 5.67 96 -0.76 -0.68 6.13 6.17 120 -0.82 -0.83 6.83 6.75 144 -0.92 -0.60 7.36 7.48 168 -1.07 -0.56 7.91 8.24 192 -0.96 -0.57 8.49 8.68 216 -0.98 -1.07 9.08 8.90 240 -0.98 -1.29 9.71 9.30 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.40 4.12 4.33 48 -0.62 -0.66 4.88 5.31 72 -0.76 -0.70 5.94 6.08 96 -0.77 -0.77 7.22 7.23 120 -1.02 -0.99 8.30 8.73 144 -0.98 -1.09 8.94 9.51 168 -0.85 -1.04 9.62 10.40 192 -0.68 -0.81 10.64 11.09 216 -0.60 -1.14 11.64 11.93 240 -0.52 -1.19 12.13 12.45 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.50 6.01 6.02 48 -0.87 -0.72 7.86 7.57 72 -1.08 -0.91 9.58 9.29 96 -1.05 -0.77 11.14 10.96 120 -1.10 -0.84 12.89 12.98 144 -1.61 -0.84 14.49 14.78 168 -1.08 -0.91 15.69 16.47 192 -1.29 -0.76 17.16 17.92 216 -0.96 -1.01 19.09 18.97 240 -0.69 -0.73 19.84 20.31