VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 19.5 19.9 48 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.0 27.8 28.1 72 0.2 0.2 2.8 2.8 1.0 1.0 35.9 36.2 96 0.3 0.3 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.9 43.9 44.7 120 0.4 0.4 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.9 52.2 52.2 144 0.4 0.5 6.4 6.4 0.8 0.8 59.4 59.4 168 0.4 0.4 7.4 7.5 0.8 0.8 64.4 65.1 192 0.3 0.4 8.5 8.4 0.7 0.7 69.7 69.6 216 0.5 0.5 9.1 8.9 0.7 0.7 73.2 72.8 240 0.4 0.3 9.5 9.6 0.7 0.7 75.4 76.0 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.5 8.2 8.3 1.0 1.0 11.6 11.7 48 -0.9 -1.2 15.8 16.1 1.0 1.0 18.3 18.4 72 0.0 -0.1 25.5 26.0 1.0 1.0 25.1 25.3 96 0.4 0.6 37.4 38.3 0.9 0.9 32.1 32.4 120 0.0 0.5 50.0 50.7 0.9 0.9 38.8 38.9 144 -0.7 0.1 62.6 62.9 0.9 0.9 44.6 44.5 168 -1.0 -0.7 74.0 74.5 0.8 0.8 49.2 49.1 192 -1.4 -1.0 85.5 85.1 0.8 0.8 53.0 53.1 216 -1.1 -1.2 94.0 92.7 0.8 0.8 56.1 55.8 240 -1.9 -1.9 99.7 101.6 0.8 0.7 58.2 58.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.0 1.7 9.8 10.0 1.0 1.0 8.7 8.8 48 3.2 2.8 19.3 19.5 1.0 1.0 13.4 13.6 72 4.7 4.6 31.1 31.8 1.0 1.0 18.6 18.7 96 5.3 5.6 46.0 47.2 1.0 1.0 24.1 24.4 120 4.5 5.0 62.1 64.0 0.9 0.9 29.7 30.1 144 3.7 4.3 79.2 80.8 0.9 0.9 35.3 35.2 168 3.1 3.5 96.8 98.5 0.9 0.9 40.1 40.0 192 2.8 2.9 113.0 114.3 0.8 0.8 44.0 44.3 216 1.6 1.5 126.5 127.1 0.8 0.8 47.2 47.3 240 -0.3 0.0 134.9 137.6 0.8 0.8 49.5 49.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.9 144 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.1 0.9 0.9 168 0.1 0.1 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.8 192 0.1 0.1 4.0 4.0 0.8 0.8 216 0.1 0.1 4.3 4.3 0.7 0.7 240 0.1 0.1 4.6 4.6 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.9 144 -0.2 -0.2 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.3 -0.3 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 192 -0.4 -0.4 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.7 216 -0.5 -0.5 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 240 -0.7 -0.7 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.4 3.4 48 -0.2 -0.3 5.2 5.2 72 -0.4 -0.4 7.0 7.0 96 -0.5 -0.5 8.8 9.0 120 -0.6 -0.6 10.7 10.7 144 -0.6 -0.6 12.3 12.3 168 -0.6 -0.6 13.6 13.7 192 -0.6 -0.6 14.8 14.9 216 -0.6 -0.6 15.8 15.7 240 -0.6 -0.7 16.5 16.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.2 4.0 4.1 48 -0.5 -0.4 6.1 6.1 72 -0.6 -0.6 8.3 8.3 96 -0.7 -0.6 10.6 10.8 120 -0.7 -0.8 13.2 13.4 144 -0.7 -0.7 15.9 15.9 168 -0.7 -0.6 18.0 18.2 192 -0.7 -0.6 19.9 20.3 216 -0.7 -0.7 21.5 21.6 240 -0.7 -0.7 22.9 23.0 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.2 -1.3 4.3 4.2 0.9 0.9 34.0 34.7 48 -2.1 -2.2 6.2 6.5 0.9 0.9 41.4 42.4 72 -3.6 -3.8 8.1 8.4 0.9 0.9 45.6 46.8 96 -4.6 -4.8 9.6 9.9 0.8 0.8 49.4 50.4 120 -5.3 -5.6 10.9 11.3 0.8 0.8 53.0 54.0 144 -5.8 -6.4 12.7 13.2 0.8 0.8 56.4 57.4 168 -5.8 -6.3 14.3 14.4 0.7 0.7 59.1 60.0 192 -5.7 -6.3 15.5 15.4 0.7 0.7 61.2 62.7 216 -6.5 -7.1 16.5 16.8 0.6 0.6 65.2 66.4 240 -7.1 -7.5 17.9 17.9 0.6 0.6 67.4 67.9 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.8 1.8 5.5 5.7 0.9 0.9 27.7 27.9 48 2.5 3.1 8.4 8.9 0.9 0.9 33.7 34.1 72 2.5 3.2 10.8 11.3 0.9 0.9 37.9 38.7 96 3.0 4.0 12.9 13.4 0.9 0.9 41.9 42.2 120 3.4 4.6 15.1 15.6 0.9 0.9 45.5 45.7 144 3.7 4.8 17.1 18.1 0.9 0.9 49.1 49.8 168 4.1 5.2 19.5 20.8 0.8 0.8 52.6 53.7 192 4.2 5.4 22.2 23.5 0.8 0.8 55.7 57.0 216 1.9 3.4 25.1 25.5 0.8 0.8 59.5 60.3 240 -0.5 1.2 27.9 27.6 0.7 0.7 62.5 62.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 48 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.8 192 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 48 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 96 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 168 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 192 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 216 0.2 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 240 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 48 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.7 72 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 96 0.0 0.1 3.7 3.7 120 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.1 144 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.6 168 -0.1 0.0 4.9 4.9 192 -0.1 -0.1 5.2 5.2 216 -0.1 -0.1 5.5 5.5 240 -0.1 -0.1 5.8 5.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.4 4.4 48 -0.5 -0.5 5.7 5.8 72 -0.7 -0.6 6.6 6.7 96 -0.8 -0.7 7.5 7.6 120 -0.9 -0.9 8.4 8.3 144 -1.1 -1.0 9.2 9.3 168 -1.2 -1.2 10.1 10.3 192 -1.3 -1.3 11.1 11.2 216 -1.3 -1.3 11.9 12.0 240 -1.3 -1.3 12.7 12.7 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 18.1 18.4 48 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 25.5 25.7 72 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.6 1.0 1.0 32.5 32.9 96 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.5 0.9 0.9 38.9 40.0 120 0.1 0.0 4.4 4.5 0.9 0.9 45.2 46.7 144 0.1 0.1 5.4 5.7 0.9 0.8 51.9 53.4 168 0.1 0.1 6.5 6.6 0.8 0.8 58.2 59.2 192 0.1 0.1 7.4 7.4 0.8 0.7 62.9 64.2 216 0.2 0.2 8.0 8.1 0.7 0.7 66.3 67.1 240 0.3 0.4 8.6 8.6 0.7 0.7 69.4 69.6 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.9 1.0 8.4 8.7 1.0 1.0 12.7 12.8 48 1.5 1.8 15.4 15.4 1.0 1.0 19.0 18.9 72 1.4 1.4 24.1 24.5 1.0 1.0 25.3 25.5 96 1.2 1.2 34.2 35.0 1.0 0.9 31.8 32.1 120 1.8 1.7 45.3 46.3 0.9 0.9 37.7 38.2 144 1.9 2.0 57.2 60.0 0.9 0.9 44.1 44.9 168 1.4 1.7 69.4 72.1 0.8 0.8 49.5 50.7 192 1.0 1.4 79.5 81.0 0.8 0.8 53.6 54.8 216 0.6 1.3 86.9 88.6 0.8 0.7 56.9 57.4 240 0.6 1.2 94.9 95.3 0.7 0.7 59.8 60.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.8 3.0 11.0 11.6 1.0 1.0 10.8 10.9 48 5.1 5.7 21.0 21.1 1.0 1.0 16.8 16.7 72 6.1 6.6 33.9 34.4 1.0 1.0 23.1 23.3 96 6.4 7.1 48.2 49.9 1.0 1.0 29.6 30.1 120 7.0 8.0 64.1 65.7 0.9 0.9 35.8 36.1 144 6.7 8.2 80.7 84.3 0.9 0.9 42.0 42.5 168 5.0 7.2 97.2 101.9 0.8 0.8 47.2 48.4 192 3.8 6.0 112.5 115.0 0.8 0.8 51.6 52.5 216 0.3 3.1 122.7 126.1 0.8 0.7 54.7 55.1 240 -1.5 0.7 134.1 136.3 0.7 0.7 57.2 57.9 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.3 2.6 2.7 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.3 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.8 192 0.1 0.2 3.3 3.4 0.8 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 3.5 3.6 0.7 0.7 240 0.0 0.1 3.8 3.9 0.7 0.7 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.4 2.5 0.9 0.9 120 -0.2 -0.1 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 144 -0.3 -0.2 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.8 168 -0.4 -0.3 3.6 3.7 0.7 0.7 192 -0.5 -0.4 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 216 -0.8 -0.7 4.2 4.2 0.6 0.6 240 -0.9 -0.8 4.4 4.4 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 3.2 3.2 48 -0.3 -0.3 4.6 4.6 72 -0.4 -0.4 6.0 6.1 96 -0.5 -0.5 7.5 7.6 120 -0.7 -0.7 9.0 9.1 144 -0.8 -0.8 10.5 10.7 168 -0.9 -0.9 11.9 12.3 192 -1.0 -1.0 13.0 13.3 216 -1.2 -1.2 13.7 13.9 240 -1.3 -1.3 14.5 14.6 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.1 4.4 4.4 48 -0.3 -0.3 6.5 6.5 72 -0.5 -0.4 8.9 8.9 96 -0.6 -0.6 11.3 11.5 120 -0.8 -0.7 13.9 13.9 144 -1.0 -0.9 16.2 16.4 168 -1.1 -1.0 18.4 19.0 192 -1.2 -1.2 20.2 20.7 216 -1.4 -1.2 21.6 21.8 240 -1.5 -1.3 22.5 23.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.59 -2.95 9.34 9.57 48 -4.64 -5.51 14.16 14.76 72 -4.34 -4.27 19.85 21.08 96 -3.12 -3.19 25.71 27.05 120 -1.56 -2.80 33.74 33.24 144 -2.30 -2.37 38.17 40.24 168 -4.15 -5.34 49.13 48.53 192 -5.73 -9.92 57.21 54.85 216 -5.46 -10.29 59.96 60.88 240 -10.44 -11.84 61.34 63.27 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.13 -2.98 11.59 11.34 48 -4.71 -6.47 19.98 20.75 72 -5.36 -6.27 31.47 33.59 96 -4.48 -4.51 40.53 45.25 120 -3.29 -5.01 54.73 55.91 144 -3.56 -4.37 62.99 68.93 168 -8.36 -10.92 81.33 82.21 192 -15.18 -17.05 98.01 97.40 216 -18.94 -20.74 105.04 107.04 240 -26.80 -28.11 110.51 114.10 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.56 0.16 14.11 13.54 48 2.37 -1.69 24.46 26.35 72 0.78 -1.41 41.59 44.36 96 0.03 -1.55 55.41 60.32 120 -2.25 -3.73 74.50 79.82 144 -6.76 -9.01 90.87 98.16 168 -12.55 -19.38 114.97 116.39 192 -21.51 -28.87 141.12 144.56 216 -31.22 -31.17 150.54 153.73 240 -43.02 -47.32 147.97 155.07 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.09 1.78 1.77 48 0.04 -0.07 2.09 2.17 72 -0.07 -0.15 2.58 2.61 96 -0.02 -0.14 3.07 3.27 120 -0.08 -0.15 3.82 3.77 144 -0.12 -0.13 4.48 4.66 168 -0.19 -0.28 5.16 5.13 192 -0.60 -0.48 5.81 5.75 216 -1.00 -0.83 6.27 6.18 240 -1.36 -1.29 6.67 6.75 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.05 0.98 1.00 48 0.16 0.08 1.42 1.42 72 0.13 0.08 2.00 2.12 96 0.07 0.10 2.54 2.68 120 0.08 0.07 2.93 3.19 144 -0.14 -0.17 3.60 3.75 168 -0.26 -0.39 4.25 4.35 192 -0.43 -0.49 4.88 4.75 216 -0.69 -0.70 5.18 5.36 240 -1.01 -1.04 5.35 5.62 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.33 1.21 1.20 48 0.45 0.37 1.59 1.54 72 0.41 0.30 2.04 2.09 96 0.26 0.16 2.48 2.56 120 0.03 -0.05 2.80 2.87 144 -0.14 -0.32 3.04 3.15 168 -0.12 -0.35 3.36 3.38 192 -0.27 -0.57 3.63 3.65 216 -0.52 -0.68 3.81 3.88 240 -0.60 -0.72 4.09 4.15 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.62 4.20 4.19 48 -0.53 -0.74 4.93 4.94 72 -0.71 -0.88 5.99 6.08 96 -0.81 -0.93 6.88 7.28 120 -0.96 -1.22 8.63 8.29 144 -1.30 -1.25 9.07 9.52 168 -1.26 -1.38 10.29 10.27 192 -0.89 -1.23 11.55 11.27 216 -0.99 -0.77 11.82 11.64 240 -1.06 -0.91 11.75 11.92 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.69 4.63 4.74 48 -0.74 -0.65 6.38 6.47 72 -1.13 -0.80 8.73 9.06 96 -1.34 -1.10 10.42 11.39 120 -1.49 -1.55 12.66 12.71 144 -1.75 -1.68 13.81 14.60 168 -1.77 -1.47 16.10 16.23 192 -1.29 -1.50 17.47 18.21 216 -1.05 -0.93 18.00 18.46 240 -1.35 -0.89 18.99 19.30 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.65 5.90 5.79 48 -0.91 -0.70 8.13 8.29 72 -1.29 -1.07 11.59 11.60 96 -1.25 -1.18 14.51 14.11 120 -1.62 -1.59 17.43 17.87 144 -1.40 -1.57 20.57 20.43 168 -1.62 -1.21 23.30 23.51 192 -1.05 -1.13 25.56 26.71 216 -0.91 -0.24 27.00 28.21 240 -0.58 0.17 27.97 28.30 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -1.86 9.09 9.26 48 0.82 -2.03 13.86 12.73 72 4.88 1.53 20.27 18.13 96 9.64 5.35 29.52 25.53 120 10.40 9.44 42.75 37.50 144 11.20 13.00 52.26 49.79 168 14.91 16.79 64.50 64.29 192 17.55 13.98 68.94 67.21 216 17.41 9.79 75.59 66.90 240 10.04 3.17 81.86 87.40 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.53 -0.28 11.86 11.50 48 2.47 0.53 20.10 16.97 72 7.48 3.28 28.95 27.51 96 11.81 7.20 43.58 40.91 120 12.33 11.76 59.51 58.38 144 11.82 12.70 70.76 72.97 168 16.20 18.10 92.27 90.50 192 12.78 20.96 98.76 101.43 216 16.70 10.14 114.69 104.40 240 13.50 5.06 123.53 125.18 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.37 4.26 14.70 14.29 48 11.82 8.61 26.74 23.07 72 16.99 11.57 39.59 35.32 96 20.89 15.14 56.68 55.44 120 20.33 19.71 80.99 78.64 144 21.51 24.99 97.16 98.51 168 29.32 30.36 125.11 125.30 192 25.92 39.84 140.26 142.29 216 25.59 20.17 146.58 137.35 240 15.43 13.60 163.26 163.18 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.31 1.32 1.28 48 0.26 0.33 1.56 1.53 72 0.22 0.30 1.86 1.85 96 0.23 0.24 2.27 2.31 120 0.25 0.19 2.72 2.62 144 0.15 0.09 3.26 3.20 168 0.10 0.18 3.68 3.74 192 0.24 0.54 3.97 4.19 216 0.15 0.45 4.33 4.34 240 0.14 0.52 4.48 4.29 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.31 0.94 0.96 48 0.46 0.50 1.32 1.32 72 0.57 0.43 1.80 1.76 96 0.55 0.48 2.38 2.28 120 0.47 0.48 2.84 2.78 144 0.39 0.44 3.52 3.31 168 0.54 0.61 3.92 3.80 192 0.33 0.87 4.34 4.34 216 0.34 0.55 4.58 4.37 240 0.16 0.39 4.82 4.59 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.23 1.23 1.22 48 0.15 0.15 1.62 1.57 72 0.07 0.10 1.98 1.99 96 0.00 0.02 2.54 2.55 120 -0.03 0.12 3.03 2.85 144 -0.08 0.17 3.31 3.24 168 0.18 0.22 3.67 3.64 192 0.09 0.18 3.65 3.79 216 -0.09 0.08 4.03 3.97 240 -0.29 -0.31 4.39 4.26 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.44 4.23 4.25 48 -0.49 -0.59 5.16 5.01 72 -0.67 -0.73 5.89 5.83 96 -0.76 -0.71 7.08 6.67 120 -0.73 -1.03 8.64 8.07 144 -0.81 -1.01 9.63 9.51 168 -0.65 -0.79 10.88 10.47 192 -0.76 -1.13 11.18 11.01 216 -1.05 -1.12 11.85 11.71 240 -1.28 -1.13 12.21 12.58 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.67 4.91 4.87 48 -0.60 -0.77 6.66 6.30 72 -0.85 -1.23 8.57 8.22 96 -1.40 -1.44 10.62 10.20 120 -1.46 -1.87 13.05 12.36 144 -1.35 -1.67 14.66 14.76 168 -1.24 -1.85 16.83 17.00 192 -1.60 -2.05 17.06 17.82 216 -1.80 -2.09 18.84 18.52 240 -1.54 -2.21 20.03 19.75 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.19 5.41 5.16 48 -0.51 -0.38 7.26 6.94 72 -0.50 -0.83 9.65 9.22 96 -1.22 -1.13 12.32 12.62 120 -1.11 -0.95 16.06 15.65 144 -0.24 -1.15 19.17 18.75 168 -0.21 -0.14 22.41 22.78 192 -0.52 -0.19 22.54 24.42 216 -1.28 -0.44 25.31 24.04 240 -0.03 -0.52 26.66 25.59 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.42 0.72 9.83 9.40 48 3.49 1.61 12.63 11.54 72 6.31 5.25 15.71 14.93 96 8.86 7.39 20.50 20.15 120 8.31 7.44 26.07 25.50 144 6.57 5.74 34.29 31.19 168 4.93 4.24 38.70 37.76 192 7.65 4.39 44.42 43.97 216 10.78 6.50 47.31 46.75 240 13.89 7.03 52.67 50.34 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.62 -0.01 13.98 13.92 48 1.67 -0.82 17.29 17.33 72 4.08 2.60 21.91 21.97 96 6.51 5.01 29.45 29.62 120 7.04 5.19 39.53 38.95 144 5.18 4.00 50.72 48.50 168 4.19 2.84 60.41 58.05 192 8.51 3.39 69.86 68.13 216 15.21 8.18 77.77 73.85 240 18.46 9.57 82.43 81.54 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.90 0.29 18.67 19.34 48 2.71 -0.35 22.50 22.80 72 5.81 4.16 27.92 28.40 96 9.46 7.23 37.78 37.05 120 10.69 7.99 49.75 48.61 144 8.58 8.58 63.39 60.17 168 10.07 8.63 76.94 72.29 192 14.76 8.88 88.13 88.64 216 24.57 16.55 105.80 100.79 240 28.75 15.89 115.14 109.56 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.03 1.65 1.68 48 0.18 -0.03 1.91 1.97 72 0.19 -0.02 2.11 2.13 96 0.19 -0.01 2.41 2.48 120 0.22 -0.07 2.96 2.91 144 0.18 -0.06 3.44 3.57 168 0.15 -0.12 4.17 4.08 192 0.21 -0.13 4.56 4.63 216 0.15 -0.11 5.19 4.89 240 0.16 -0.04 5.51 5.24 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.03 1.01 1.01 48 0.07 -0.03 1.23 1.24 72 0.08 0.00 1.45 1.51 96 0.14 0.06 1.85 1.77 120 0.19 0.11 2.30 2.16 144 0.17 0.17 2.79 2.60 168 0.40 0.24 3.21 3.05 192 0.50 0.31 3.61 3.52 216 0.62 0.41 4.09 3.84 240 0.79 0.49 4.36 4.17 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.11 1.20 1.19 48 0.09 0.13 1.42 1.46 72 0.06 0.15 1.70 1.73 96 -0.06 0.10 2.01 2.09 120 -0.20 0.00 2.42 2.42 144 -0.23 -0.05 2.88 2.78 168 -0.27 -0.20 3.17 3.11 192 -0.32 -0.35 3.35 3.38 216 -0.62 -0.44 3.60 3.68 240 -0.73 -0.63 3.96 4.04 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.69 3.52 3.48 48 -0.85 -0.81 4.03 4.01 72 -0.94 -0.90 4.52 4.42 96 -1.07 -0.98 5.20 5.07 120 -1.10 -0.93 5.92 5.88 144 -0.97 -0.91 6.76 6.50 168 -1.00 -0.91 7.30 7.21 192 -1.12 -0.99 7.85 7.81 216 -0.93 -0.90 8.10 8.04 240 -0.82 -1.00 8.36 8.49 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.64 4.30 4.43 48 -0.76 -0.72 5.44 5.52 72 -0.85 -0.83 6.54 6.54 96 -0.88 -0.94 7.78 7.80 120 -0.81 -0.90 9.30 9.14 144 -0.69 -0.69 10.64 10.50 168 -0.79 -0.61 11.97 11.65 192 -0.83 -0.74 12.91 12.37 216 -1.04 -1.16 13.39 12.93 240 -0.92 -1.06 13.86 13.84 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -0.77 4.73 4.86 48 -1.30 -1.09 5.73 6.01 72 -1.44 -1.25 6.97 7.18 96 -1.60 -1.46 8.23 8.58 120 -1.55 -1.40 10.01 10.11 144 -1.39 -1.12 12.20 11.55 168 -1.47 -0.99 14.12 13.39 192 -1.66 -1.24 15.89 15.49 216 -1.86 -1.55 17.30 17.40 240 -1.17 -1.29 18.98 18.96 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.56 -8.59 9.36 12.32 48 -5.35 -6.91 11.17 13.37 72 -4.20 -6.07 15.26 19.77 96 -5.95 -8.49 21.93 27.03 120 -5.51 -6.73 27.09 31.53 144 -5.00 -6.87 31.13 37.57 168 -5.65 -1.86 37.39 41.80 192 -5.74 -3.88 38.33 49.30 216 -4.89 -0.25 42.12 52.20 240 -4.71 3.12 46.62 55.98 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.33 -11.38 11.93 16.09 48 -7.41 -9.67 13.16 16.64 72 -6.05 -10.03 17.65 24.01 96 -8.44 -11.37 25.86 31.39 120 -9.26 -12.33 32.84 42.95 144 -10.10 -11.31 37.79 44.68 168 -10.34 -6.80 47.41 58.67 192 -11.80 -8.28 49.52 66.53 216 -11.03 -6.59 53.65 73.17 240 -9.80 -2.47 61.20 74.28 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.22 -6.87 11.95 16.71 48 0.88 -3.78 15.20 19.70 72 3.80 -2.91 22.46 29.17 96 1.15 -5.45 32.23 41.69 120 -0.67 -8.69 44.35 59.78 144 -4.47 -8.37 50.86 62.20 168 -5.67 -2.76 67.25 89.29 192 -8.25 -2.77 72.22 94.12 216 -9.59 -6.16 81.44 103.39 240 -7.87 -3.00 92.84 107.63 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.13 1.35 1.30 48 0.02 0.16 1.56 1.54 72 0.05 0.14 1.79 1.67 96 -0.06 0.03 1.98 2.03 120 -0.15 0.01 2.37 2.29 144 -0.05 0.06 2.57 2.77 168 0.04 0.11 2.93 3.04 192 0.00 0.08 3.32 3.29 216 0.11 0.13 3.67 3.99 240 0.17 0.02 4.30 4.08 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.09 0.94 1.01 48 0.29 0.09 1.10 1.16 72 0.36 0.07 1.28 1.28 96 0.36 0.00 1.51 1.66 120 0.31 -0.04 1.71 2.07 144 0.18 -0.09 1.90 2.13 168 0.18 0.11 2.20 2.71 192 0.05 0.23 2.31 2.68 216 0.09 0.05 2.44 2.71 240 0.12 0.06 2.77 2.97 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.55 0.42 1.01 1.12 48 0.65 0.57 1.23 1.43 72 0.65 0.54 1.45 1.62 96 0.62 0.45 1.73 2.01 120 0.51 0.39 1.91 2.04 144 0.41 0.36 2.13 2.17 168 0.30 0.30 2.34 2.65 192 0.27 0.16 2.59 2.89 216 -0.01 -0.17 2.81 3.01 240 -0.05 -0.35 3.07 3.20 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.10 4.17 4.25 48 -0.31 -0.07 4.87 4.97 72 -0.35 -0.08 5.70 6.10 96 -0.42 -0.23 6.70 6.77 120 -0.69 -0.64 7.90 7.93 144 -1.10 -0.76 8.42 8.79 168 -0.90 -0.70 9.24 9.50 192 -1.03 -0.84 9.66 10.19 216 -0.99 -1.22 10.06 10.55 240 -1.04 -1.10 10.68 10.70 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.35 4.22 4.45 48 -0.53 -0.33 5.07 5.22 72 -0.84 -0.58 6.01 6.36 96 -0.99 -0.46 7.22 7.39 120 -1.26 -0.82 8.56 9.12 144 -1.64 -1.30 9.78 9.80 168 -1.95 -1.41 10.76 12.12 192 -1.97 -1.49 11.13 12.73 216 -1.99 -1.95 11.72 12.76 240 -1.98 -1.88 12.97 12.89 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.47 5.47 5.92 48 -1.07 -0.88 6.74 7.36 72 -1.37 -1.19 8.36 8.97 96 -1.61 -1.38 10.47 10.67 120 -1.83 -1.54 12.08 12.64 144 -1.96 -1.70 14.23 14.28 168 -2.50 -1.90 15.68 16.80 192 -2.61 -2.33 17.13 19.07 216 -2.80 -2.90 19.11 19.67 240 -2.35 -2.57 20.50 20.00 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.40 -6.49 11.34 11.27 48 -5.89 -5.51 11.47 11.21 72 -6.53 -6.21 12.73 12.37 96 -7.72 -7.27 14.18 13.67 120 -8.82 -8.59 15.35 14.79 144 -10.00 -9.84 17.50 16.32 168 -9.92 -10.37 18.98 17.59 192 -9.76 -10.84 19.83 18.39 216 -11.44 -12.28 21.13 20.10 240 -11.88 -13.51 22.24 21.90 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.82 -7.94 13.67 14.17 48 -7.15 -6.76 13.72 14.21 72 -7.84 -7.35 14.71 15.16 96 -8.38 -7.66 16.02 15.74 120 -9.29 -8.65 16.88 16.42 144 -10.23 -9.63 17.96 17.65 168 -10.17 -10.18 18.86 18.71 192 -9.99 -10.48 19.72 19.36 216 -11.47 -11.16 21.18 20.18 240 -12.10 -12.31 22.21 21.94 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.54 -4.65 14.55 14.84 48 -1.11 -1.27 14.92 15.11 72 -0.27 -0.07 15.73 16.44 96 0.20 1.43 17.02 17.73 120 -0.06 1.26 17.65 18.48 144 -0.68 0.93 18.47 20.22 168 -0.76 0.10 19.70 21.35 192 -0.74 0.18 21.69 23.38 216 -3.90 -2.23 23.98 25.35 240 -6.05 -3.90 26.27 26.74 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.03 1.01 1.00 48 0.10 0.07 1.06 1.05 72 0.09 0.08 1.07 1.07 96 0.13 0.12 1.12 1.11 120 0.15 0.15 1.18 1.17 144 0.14 0.16 1.23 1.21 168 0.15 0.16 1.29 1.27 192 0.11 0.16 1.34 1.29 216 0.12 0.11 1.38 1.33 240 0.10 0.10 1.43 1.39 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.11 0.86 0.86 48 -0.04 -0.09 0.91 0.91 72 0.01 -0.04 0.95 0.96 96 0.07 0.03 1.01 0.97 120 0.10 0.08 1.03 1.04 144 0.10 0.10 1.11 1.12 168 0.08 0.07 1.16 1.18 192 0.07 0.07 1.20 1.27 216 0.08 0.11 1.26 1.35 240 0.06 0.11 1.34 1.41 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.57 0.50 0.94 0.87 48 0.69 0.65 1.06 1.02 72 0.76 0.76 1.17 1.13 96 0.82 0.85 1.25 1.25 120 0.84 0.89 1.29 1.33 144 0.85 0.91 1.35 1.41 168 0.86 0.91 1.41 1.45 192 0.83 0.90 1.46 1.51 216 0.56 0.62 1.36 1.39 240 0.46 0.54 1.36 1.43 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.53 4.01 3.85 48 -0.63 -0.57 4.32 4.24 72 -0.60 -0.55 4.74 4.59 96 -0.62 -0.52 5.04 4.98 120 -0.55 -0.57 5.53 5.32 144 -0.67 -0.57 5.81 5.69 168 -0.65 -0.64 6.22 5.79 192 -0.64 -0.69 6.44 6.13 216 -0.59 -0.64 6.58 6.26 240 -0.61 -0.60 6.73 6.49 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.83 4.22 4.19 48 -0.87 -0.95 4.62 4.55 72 -0.90 -0.88 5.06 4.97 96 -0.99 -0.92 5.45 5.45 120 -1.00 -0.95 5.90 5.96 144 -0.99 -0.99 6.41 6.41 168 -0.99 -0.97 6.65 6.89 192 -1.04 -1.11 6.97 7.28 216 -1.22 -1.31 7.27 7.44 240 -1.19 -1.20 7.81 7.76 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.65 5.92 5.69 48 -1.01 -0.92 6.79 6.69 72 -0.97 -0.98 7.36 7.41 96 -1.06 -1.06 7.97 8.14 120 -1.10 -0.99 8.74 8.70 144 -1.24 -1.02 9.18 9.54 168 -1.00 -0.95 9.84 10.57 192 -0.86 -0.71 10.19 11.12 216 -0.74 -0.75 10.85 11.46 240 -0.54 -0.71 11.39 12.15 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.20 -1.76 10.46 10.11 48 -1.19 -2.39 15.08 14.85 72 0.25 -0.20 21.72 21.72 96 2.57 1.86 29.98 29.82 120 3.49 2.87 39.69 38.48 144 2.97 2.94 49.44 48.67 168 2.45 2.49 58.63 57.18 192 2.97 -1.06 63.77 62.69 216 4.81 0.04 67.97 67.03 240 1.01 -2.17 72.74 75.64 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.76 13.49 13.00 48 -0.52 -1.60 20.89 20.24 72 0.61 0.31 31.06 31.78 96 2.12 1.88 42.83 44.68 120 2.98 2.75 57.65 58.04 144 2.45 2.69 70.29 70.29 168 1.94 0.86 85.86 85.20 192 -0.07 -1.94 96.74 95.22 216 0.63 -5.27 105.34 102.07 240 -3.40 -7.61 112.69 115.39 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.98 2.63 16.59 16.13 48 5.51 3.50 26.22 25.51 72 7.02 5.78 39.33 40.27 96 7.39 6.63 53.91 56.31 120 6.63 6.46 73.34 76.41 144 5.87 4.57 89.98 91.70 168 5.83 2.34 112.96 114.03 192 1.41 -0.43 131.90 133.58 216 -0.12 -8.77 145.20 142.97 240 -4.48 -12.55 152.14 156.74 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.23 1.60 1.61 48 0.19 0.22 1.88 1.92 72 0.16 0.19 2.28 2.32 96 0.16 0.20 2.77 2.88 120 0.13 0.19 3.36 3.37 144 0.19 0.14 3.97 4.02 168 0.18 0.09 4.64 4.53 192 0.01 0.06 5.13 5.13 216 -0.22 -0.19 5.47 5.42 240 -0.26 -0.21 5.76 5.79 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.17 0.98 1.01 48 0.24 0.24 1.38 1.39 72 0.26 0.25 1.86 1.95 96 0.20 0.24 2.42 2.43 120 0.17 0.23 2.86 2.97 144 0.15 0.12 3.46 3.48 168 0.14 0.09 4.07 4.06 192 0.02 0.12 4.57 4.49 216 0.02 -0.10 4.84 4.84 240 -0.10 -0.21 5.02 5.10 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.22 1.22 1.23 48 0.24 0.16 1.59 1.57 72 0.18 0.08 2.02 2.08 96 0.10 -0.03 2.56 2.56 120 -0.05 -0.11 2.96 2.96 144 -0.25 -0.21 3.39 3.34 168 -0.20 -0.31 3.71 3.71 192 -0.36 -0.43 3.89 3.98 216 -0.55 -0.59 4.17 4.15 240 -0.68 -0.75 4.39 4.46 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.56 4.09 4.11 48 -0.57 -0.65 4.88 4.96 72 -0.70 -0.74 5.84 5.91 96 -0.82 -0.78 6.97 7.07 120 -0.94 -1.05 8.29 8.11 144 -0.99 -1.01 9.28 9.27 168 -0.96 -1.06 9.96 10.13 192 -0.86 -0.91 10.86 10.89 216 -0.83 -0.89 11.29 11.34 240 -1.02 -0.96 11.41 11.62 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.65 4.59 4.66 48 -0.64 -0.69 6.30 6.28 72 -0.91 -0.85 8.22 8.38 96 -1.13 -1.10 10.16 10.32 120 -1.28 -1.36 12.11 11.95 144 -1.33 -1.26 13.78 13.93 168 -1.29 -1.36 15.48 15.46 192 -1.28 -1.26 16.50 16.89 216 -1.27 -1.27 17.33 17.26 240 -1.34 -1.30 18.16 18.31 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.41 5.37 5.27 48 -0.66 -0.53 7.30 7.24 72 -0.90 -0.71 9.85 9.70 96 -1.09 -0.84 12.34 12.48 120 -1.20 -1.03 15.15 15.26 144 -0.94 -1.08 17.88 17.95 168 -1.10 -0.75 20.44 20.66 192 -1.31 -0.72 21.87 23.04 216 -1.26 -0.52 23.51 23.73 240 -0.82 -0.47 24.84 25.04 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.97 -6.17 10.10 11.57 48 -5.73 -6.21 12.48 14.39 72 -5.49 -7.01 16.38 18.42 96 -6.65 -7.77 22.59 23.94 120 -6.52 -9.03 27.68 29.00 144 -7.09 -10.54 31.99 35.47 168 -7.26 -9.97 38.19 40.65 192 -8.50 -9.70 42.67 47.14 216 -6.80 -8.90 45.78 49.52 240 -7.65 -9.50 50.41 54.84 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.24 -4.97 12.41 13.26 48 -7.09 -4.62 15.01 16.16 72 -6.27 -5.92 19.99 21.99 96 -7.24 -6.33 27.88 29.41 120 -8.57 -6.94 34.99 39.41 144 -9.30 -8.28 41.99 44.85 168 -9.28 -8.37 52.52 55.73 192 -10.64 -8.24 56.60 62.04 216 -9.73 -8.37 63.18 67.99 240 -8.83 -10.36 68.51 72.80 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.35 0.97 14.70 16.25 48 0.38 3.66 18.60 21.06 72 2.61 4.55 27.03 29.07 96 1.22 4.73 37.27 40.86 120 -0.34 3.61 49.78 53.55 144 -1.73 2.98 59.20 63.84 168 -1.20 4.03 73.10 80.57 192 -5.22 5.05 81.17 89.42 216 -6.78 -0.03 93.44 98.94 240 -5.06 -2.43 100.89 106.60 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 0.18 1.42 1.57 48 -0.07 0.19 1.59 1.75 72 0.00 0.17 1.76 1.85 96 -0.11 0.18 1.97 2.08 120 -0.17 0.13 2.37 2.34 144 -0.04 0.20 2.60 2.75 168 0.03 0.21 2.99 3.19 192 0.21 0.09 3.45 3.53 216 -0.04 0.11 3.86 3.73 240 0.09 0.02 4.38 4.07 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.20 1.01 1.01 48 0.21 0.20 1.19 1.21 72 0.26 0.27 1.46 1.46 96 0.29 0.32 1.74 1.84 120 0.28 0.41 1.95 2.16 144 0.20 0.37 2.23 2.33 168 0.17 0.35 2.57 2.77 192 0.15 0.44 2.67 2.98 216 0.15 0.35 2.90 3.18 240 0.20 0.25 3.05 3.28 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.40 1.13 1.24 48 0.49 0.47 1.44 1.61 72 0.46 0.41 1.70 2.00 96 0.39 0.37 2.06 2.44 120 0.34 0.28 2.33 2.71 144 0.33 0.27 2.62 2.93 168 0.16 0.31 3.04 3.27 192 0.10 0.15 3.23 3.55 216 -0.22 -0.11 3.47 3.78 240 -0.25 -0.24 3.71 3.89 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.45 4.19 4.30 48 -0.59 -0.49 4.92 4.75 72 -0.61 -0.48 5.37 5.46 96 -0.71 -0.58 6.25 6.05 120 -0.81 -0.64 7.20 6.81 144 -1.10 -1.05 7.77 7.68 168 -0.98 -1.10 8.54 8.43 192 -1.10 -1.16 8.98 9.05 216 -1.53 -1.67 9.48 9.44 240 -1.55 -1.64 10.07 9.62 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.56 4.16 4.29 48 -0.74 -0.69 4.99 5.18 72 -1.01 -0.86 5.96 6.04 96 -1.12 -0.87 7.21 7.07 120 -1.38 -1.08 8.19 8.34 144 -1.61 -1.46 9.42 9.65 168 -1.85 -1.51 10.55 11.32 192 -2.02 -1.67 11.21 11.89 216 -2.16 -2.02 12.10 12.42 240 -2.29 -2.16 12.79 12.46 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.38 5.55 5.62 48 -1.03 -0.69 6.81 7.15 72 -1.23 -0.86 8.65 8.70 96 -1.58 -1.17 10.98 10.66 120 -2.03 -1.37 12.81 12.64 144 -1.84 -1.63 14.35 14.63 168 -2.20 -1.77 16.62 17.12 192 -2.74 -2.00 17.96 18.58 216 -2.63 -2.38 19.93 20.01 240 -2.80 -2.68 20.94 20.43