VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 18.8 19.6 48 -0.1 -0.2 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.0 26.8 27.4 72 -0.1 -0.1 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.0 34.8 35.6 96 -0.1 -0.1 3.1 3.3 1.0 0.9 43.6 45.2 120 -0.1 -0.1 4.2 4.5 0.9 0.9 52.5 54.0 144 -0.2 -0.2 5.5 5.7 0.9 0.9 61.3 62.3 168 -0.2 -0.2 6.7 6.8 0.8 0.8 68.6 69.2 192 -0.2 -0.3 7.8 7.8 0.8 0.8 74.7 74.9 216 -0.3 -0.4 8.7 8.9 0.7 0.7 79.5 80.5 240 -0.3 -0.5 9.5 9.6 0.6 0.6 82.9 84.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 6.9 6.8 1.0 1.0 12.6 12.6 48 0.1 -0.3 12.7 13.0 1.0 1.0 19.3 19.6 72 0.7 0.5 20.6 21.1 1.0 1.0 26.6 26.9 96 0.7 0.8 30.7 32.1 1.0 1.0 34.5 35.2 120 0.2 0.1 42.8 44.4 0.9 0.9 42.4 42.9 144 -0.6 -0.5 57.2 57.9 0.9 0.9 50.0 49.9 168 -1.1 -1.1 71.5 71.6 0.8 0.8 56.8 56.6 192 -1.6 -1.6 84.9 83.3 0.8 0.8 62.8 61.8 216 -2.3 -2.2 96.2 94.4 0.7 0.7 67.4 66.3 240 -2.4 -3.0 106.3 104.1 0.7 0.7 71.0 69.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.2 3.0 9.4 9.4 1.0 1.0 10.1 10.2 48 5.9 5.5 17.9 18.1 1.0 1.0 15.8 16.2 72 7.9 7.9 29.3 30.0 1.0 1.0 22.5 22.7 96 8.7 8.8 43.6 45.5 1.0 1.0 29.6 30.4 120 8.7 8.5 61.0 63.2 0.9 0.9 37.0 37.6 144 8.3 8.3 82.4 83.6 0.9 0.9 44.5 44.3 168 8.0 8.0 103.9 102.8 0.8 0.8 51.0 50.5 192 7.1 7.5 122.9 120.3 0.8 0.8 56.6 55.6 216 4.4 5.2 138.5 135.5 0.7 0.8 61.0 59.9 240 3.7 3.5 154.1 150.6 0.7 0.7 64.6 63.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 96 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.2 2.8 2.9 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.3 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.2 3.8 3.8 0.8 0.7 216 0.2 0.2 4.2 4.1 0.7 0.7 240 0.2 0.2 4.5 4.5 0.6 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.1 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.1 0.1 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.1 3.7 3.7 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 2.9 2.9 48 -0.3 -0.3 4.3 4.3 72 -0.4 -0.4 5.8 5.8 96 -0.5 -0.5 7.3 7.5 120 -0.6 -0.7 9.0 9.2 144 -0.7 -0.7 10.8 10.8 168 -0.7 -0.7 12.4 12.4 192 -0.7 -0.7 13.7 13.6 216 -0.7 -0.8 14.9 14.7 240 -0.7 -0.7 15.8 15.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.1 4.2 48 -0.5 -0.5 6.0 6.1 72 -0.8 -0.7 8.3 8.4 96 -0.9 -0.9 10.8 11.1 120 -1.1 -1.1 13.6 13.9 144 -1.3 -1.2 16.5 16.5 168 -1.3 -1.2 19.1 18.8 192 -1.4 -1.3 21.2 20.9 216 -1.5 -1.4 22.9 22.6 240 -1.4 -1.3 24.4 23.9 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.6 -0.8 3.7 3.8 0.9 0.9 33.5 33.4 48 -1.1 -1.4 5.3 5.6 0.9 0.9 40.7 40.7 72 -2.0 -2.3 6.5 6.8 0.9 0.9 44.6 44.8 96 -2.5 -2.8 7.7 8.1 0.9 0.9 48.0 48.5 120 -3.0 -3.5 8.8 9.1 0.8 0.8 51.0 51.5 144 -3.5 -4.1 10.0 10.4 0.8 0.8 53.6 54.3 168 -3.6 -4.3 11.1 11.4 0.8 0.8 56.7 57.1 192 -3.7 -4.3 11.9 12.2 0.8 0.8 59.2 59.7 216 -4.2 -5.3 13.0 13.8 0.7 0.7 64.4 65.0 240 -5.0 -5.9 14.1 15.0 0.7 0.7 66.7 66.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.2 2.2 5.3 5.4 0.9 0.9 32.5 32.0 48 2.6 3.3 7.6 7.9 0.9 0.9 39.8 39.1 72 2.4 2.9 8.9 9.5 0.9 0.9 44.3 44.0 96 2.0 2.7 10.6 11.0 0.9 0.9 48.5 48.2 120 1.2 1.8 12.5 12.6 0.9 0.9 52.7 52.4 144 0.2 0.5 14.5 14.5 0.8 0.8 56.4 56.2 168 -0.6 -0.2 16.3 16.3 0.8 0.8 59.6 59.7 192 -1.4 -0.8 18.2 18.0 0.8 0.8 63.0 62.6 216 -3.7 -3.1 20.6 19.7 0.7 0.8 67.0 66.2 240 -5.7 -4.8 22.5 21.9 0.7 0.7 69.4 69.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 48 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 72 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 120 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 192 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 240 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 72 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 96 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 120 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 144 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 168 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 192 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 240 -0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.8 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.5 2.4 72 -0.1 -0.1 3.0 2.9 96 -0.2 -0.2 3.3 3.2 120 -0.2 -0.2 3.7 3.6 144 -0.3 -0.3 4.0 3.9 168 -0.4 -0.3 4.3 4.2 192 -0.4 -0.4 4.5 4.5 216 -0.4 -0.4 4.9 4.8 240 -0.4 -0.5 5.2 5.0 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.4 4.0 4.1 48 -0.7 -0.7 5.3 5.4 72 -0.8 -0.8 6.2 6.3 96 -0.9 -0.9 7.0 7.1 120 -1.0 -1.0 7.8 7.8 144 -1.0 -1.1 8.5 8.5 168 -1.1 -1.1 9.2 9.3 192 -1.2 -1.1 9.9 10.0 216 -1.2 -1.1 10.7 10.7 240 -1.2 -1.2 11.3 11.2 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 17.9 18.0 48 0.0 0.1 2.2 2.2 1.0 1.0 25.4 25.8 72 0.0 0.1 3.1 3.1 1.0 1.0 32.9 33.2 96 0.0 0.1 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.9 40.1 40.5 120 0.1 0.2 5.5 5.5 0.9 0.9 47.4 47.7 144 0.2 0.3 6.6 6.7 0.8 0.8 53.5 53.9 168 0.3 0.4 8.0 8.1 0.8 0.8 59.4 59.5 192 0.3 0.4 9.1 9.1 0.7 0.7 64.1 64.2 216 0.4 0.6 9.8 9.8 0.7 0.7 67.1 67.4 240 0.6 0.7 10.3 10.5 0.7 0.7 69.2 69.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.2 9.9 9.9 1.0 1.0 12.4 12.5 48 0.0 0.4 17.9 17.7 1.0 1.0 19.0 19.1 72 -0.1 0.1 28.0 28.0 1.0 1.0 25.4 25.6 96 -0.1 -0.3 40.1 40.4 1.0 0.9 32.0 32.2 120 0.2 0.3 54.0 54.4 0.9 0.9 38.6 38.6 144 0.7 0.8 67.9 69.1 0.9 0.9 44.4 44.6 168 0.4 0.7 83.3 84.2 0.8 0.8 49.9 50.0 192 -0.2 0.1 96.7 96.2 0.8 0.8 54.5 54.3 216 -0.5 0.0 107.4 105.9 0.7 0.7 57.8 57.2 240 -0.6 -0.2 114.2 112.6 0.7 0.7 60.0 59.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.4 2.5 11.9 11.8 1.0 1.0 9.5 9.6 48 4.2 4.8 22.1 22.1 1.0 1.0 14.8 14.8 72 5.2 5.6 35.5 35.3 1.0 1.0 20.5 20.5 96 5.8 5.7 51.9 52.0 1.0 1.0 26.5 26.6 120 6.2 6.2 70.6 71.0 0.9 0.9 32.7 32.6 144 6.7 6.4 90.0 90.8 0.9 0.9 38.4 38.4 168 6.5 6.0 112.0 111.5 0.8 0.8 43.9 43.9 192 5.6 4.9 131.5 130.6 0.8 0.8 48.7 48.5 216 2.3 2.3 145.8 144.1 0.7 0.7 51.8 51.6 240 0.2 0.2 154.5 151.9 0.7 0.7 53.8 53.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.2 2.9 3.0 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.2 3.5 3.4 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.1 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.7 240 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.3 0.7 0.7 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.9 144 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.4 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 -0.1 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 216 -0.2 -0.2 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 240 -0.3 -0.3 4.2 4.1 0.7 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.6 3.6 48 -0.1 -0.1 5.3 5.3 72 -0.2 -0.2 7.0 7.0 96 -0.3 -0.3 8.7 8.8 120 -0.4 -0.4 10.6 10.5 144 -0.6 -0.5 12.2 12.3 168 -0.6 -0.7 13.9 13.8 192 -0.7 -0.7 15.4 15.2 216 -0.8 -0.8 16.5 16.2 240 -0.9 -0.9 17.1 16.8 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.3 4.3 48 -0.2 -0.2 6.5 6.5 72 -0.3 -0.3 8.9 8.8 96 -0.4 -0.4 11.4 11.4 120 -0.5 -0.5 14.1 14.1 144 -0.6 -0.6 16.7 16.7 168 -0.6 -0.7 19.4 19.4 192 -0.7 -0.7 21.9 21.8 216 -0.8 -0.8 23.4 23.3 240 -0.9 -0.8 24.4 24.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.85 -2.86 8.42 7.98 48 -4.45 -6.12 12.24 12.41 72 -3.61 -5.83 17.38 17.61 96 -1.65 -3.47 22.67 24.40 120 -1.50 -3.54 31.48 34.27 144 -1.13 -3.10 38.47 40.81 168 -2.18 -4.23 48.09 48.22 192 -0.45 -0.88 55.51 53.43 216 -6.51 1.77 61.38 60.82 240 -1.45 3.49 65.17 66.47 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.25 -3.20 9.55 9.81 48 -3.86 -6.52 14.43 15.49 72 -2.85 -6.19 21.53 22.64 96 -1.38 -3.62 32.70 33.23 120 -0.76 -4.13 42.74 43.40 144 -1.94 -4.53 53.77 55.51 168 -3.51 -5.04 67.86 69.03 192 -0.80 -1.87 82.24 75.49 216 -5.40 -3.70 94.63 91.68 240 0.32 -2.21 111.62 104.30 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.56 2.64 13.37 12.68 48 5.59 2.25 19.63 19.62 72 8.09 4.64 33.00 32.20 96 7.88 6.85 49.36 48.12 120 10.53 6.24 65.45 63.98 144 7.90 4.75 85.70 85.97 168 6.83 2.39 105.18 103.99 192 8.58 10.75 128.37 119.45 216 7.94 6.22 155.59 145.43 240 13.88 14.35 179.35 163.85 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.02 1.35 1.37 48 0.04 0.02 1.57 1.57 72 0.04 -0.01 1.85 1.84 96 0.02 -0.02 2.25 2.30 120 -0.02 -0.03 2.79 2.87 144 -0.14 -0.15 3.37 3.44 168 -0.10 -0.17 3.77 4.02 192 -0.14 -0.24 4.69 4.84 216 -0.09 -0.43 5.47 5.39 240 -0.15 -0.45 6.05 6.09 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.13 0.84 0.90 48 0.23 0.18 1.14 1.19 72 0.31 0.27 1.58 1.59 96 0.32 0.29 2.03 2.08 120 0.40 0.32 2.49 2.53 144 0.32 0.32 2.97 3.16 168 0.35 0.35 3.40 3.52 192 0.29 0.42 4.07 3.92 216 0.42 0.31 4.78 4.53 240 0.59 0.38 5.33 5.17 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.50 1.21 1.17 48 0.61 0.60 1.54 1.50 72 0.61 0.67 1.91 1.90 96 0.54 0.57 2.30 2.31 120 0.39 0.43 2.63 2.66 144 0.29 0.25 3.05 3.01 168 0.25 0.39 3.41 3.34 192 0.26 0.28 3.45 3.48 216 0.16 0.23 3.67 3.53 240 0.21 0.26 3.91 3.80 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.46 3.80 3.82 48 -0.19 -0.48 4.37 4.58 72 -0.28 -0.55 5.20 5.30 96 -0.43 -0.76 6.38 6.56 120 -0.58 -0.90 7.62 7.86 144 -0.72 -1.10 8.56 8.84 168 -0.79 -1.17 9.76 10.17 192 -0.60 -1.22 11.07 11.04 216 -0.90 -1.60 11.03 11.41 240 -0.86 -1.48 11.91 12.26 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.48 4.16 4.11 48 -0.73 -0.57 5.29 5.25 72 -0.87 -0.77 6.62 6.61 96 -1.10 -0.99 8.40 8.35 120 -1.28 -1.11 9.91 9.92 144 -1.20 -1.12 11.36 11.31 168 -1.20 -1.18 12.90 13.24 192 -1.00 -1.46 14.97 14.43 216 -1.11 -1.40 16.27 15.77 240 -1.74 -1.36 17.89 17.18 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.66 5.39 5.40 48 -0.73 -0.67 7.07 7.38 72 -1.00 -0.80 9.84 10.06 96 -1.26 -0.84 13.10 12.78 120 -1.46 -1.22 16.17 16.01 144 -1.37 -1.17 19.11 18.73 168 -1.54 -1.28 21.29 20.51 192 -1.32 -1.47 24.10 23.36 216 -1.52 -1.40 26.25 25.79 240 -1.79 -1.69 28.91 27.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 -1.72 7.78 8.30 48 2.71 -0.04 12.39 12.22 72 6.22 3.92 17.82 18.07 96 6.92 6.24 26.13 27.09 120 6.51 5.25 35.26 34.71 144 6.50 0.83 44.23 43.33 168 6.96 -0.62 53.28 49.58 192 8.74 1.87 63.71 56.43 216 13.85 6.53 70.09 62.99 240 20.12 14.09 76.04 72.12 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.81 -1.79 10.81 9.99 48 2.43 -0.63 15.96 16.24 72 6.25 2.33 25.12 24.47 96 8.09 5.47 38.23 35.39 120 9.44 6.70 51.27 51.69 144 12.51 4.89 66.10 62.57 168 9.97 1.27 82.60 73.51 192 7.88 0.50 100.06 87.33 216 12.71 5.87 108.83 93.55 240 17.79 9.63 119.55 108.59 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.36 2.71 15.10 13.14 48 9.31 5.86 23.87 22.39 72 13.99 10.69 36.73 35.17 96 19.77 15.92 58.38 51.93 120 25.70 20.84 77.39 76.36 144 29.83 23.44 97.37 92.57 168 26.92 16.93 121.43 106.75 192 23.70 9.44 143.73 129.06 216 22.03 12.97 155.05 140.64 240 26.07 17.97 170.52 160.14 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.21 1.16 1.16 48 0.19 0.20 1.41 1.37 72 0.14 0.16 1.74 1.60 96 0.14 0.17 2.24 2.06 120 0.15 0.14 2.67 2.61 144 0.11 0.27 3.04 3.08 168 0.12 0.13 3.54 3.23 192 0.16 -0.08 3.86 3.71 216 -0.12 -0.17 4.22 3.71 240 0.09 -0.13 4.57 4.23 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.13 0.85 0.81 48 0.17 0.10 1.17 1.18 72 0.17 0.11 1.61 1.52 96 0.40 0.24 2.22 2.08 120 0.58 0.46 2.72 2.52 144 0.78 0.63 3.03 2.97 168 0.66 0.44 3.56 3.21 192 0.48 0.26 4.24 3.70 216 0.31 0.10 4.16 3.73 240 0.26 0.10 4.62 4.25 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.37 1.09 1.08 48 0.43 0.43 1.39 1.46 72 0.39 0.48 1.83 1.83 96 0.45 0.51 2.34 2.22 120 0.61 0.55 2.75 2.53 144 0.39 0.67 3.04 2.90 168 0.37 0.55 3.19 3.00 192 0.35 0.44 3.42 3.21 216 0.26 0.34 3.46 3.22 240 0.15 0.37 3.48 3.31 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.73 3.72 3.78 48 -0.63 -0.92 4.52 4.58 72 -0.86 -1.05 5.51 5.40 96 -0.96 -1.04 6.76 6.62 120 -1.10 -1.16 7.58 7.58 144 -1.08 -0.99 8.81 8.86 168 -0.96 -0.88 9.50 9.21 192 -1.04 -0.90 10.68 9.78 216 -1.26 -1.02 11.03 10.21 240 -1.45 -0.81 11.57 11.07 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.52 4.23 3.93 48 -0.67 -0.78 5.25 5.41 72 -0.83 -0.87 6.91 6.98 96 -1.08 -1.15 9.24 8.77 120 -1.42 -1.45 10.76 10.59 144 -1.67 -1.47 12.96 12.25 168 -1.49 -1.33 14.43 13.22 192 -1.82 -1.73 15.62 14.96 216 -2.52 -1.48 16.75 15.36 240 -2.24 -1.33 18.34 17.27 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.66 5.36 5.31 48 -0.98 -0.95 7.21 7.07 72 -0.95 -1.07 9.78 9.90 96 -0.83 -1.04 13.35 12.89 120 -1.01 -1.34 16.60 16.21 144 -1.47 -0.85 19.44 18.61 168 -1.27 -0.92 21.46 20.31 192 -1.22 -1.49 24.22 23.70 216 -1.52 -0.39 26.06 24.72 240 -1.80 -0.61 28.22 27.49 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.62 -0.66 8.22 7.82 48 0.03 -0.37 10.40 10.39 72 2.01 2.15 14.53 13.83 96 3.34 4.62 19.36 19.16 120 3.46 5.20 25.16 24.56 144 2.97 5.23 29.94 31.13 168 3.38 3.97 37.21 39.14 192 1.26 3.43 45.02 45.78 216 0.41 3.24 50.75 50.26 240 4.17 3.05 55.11 53.34 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 0.20 12.32 11.82 48 1.06 1.15 15.68 14.98 72 4.09 4.41 20.82 20.22 96 5.52 7.12 27.95 28.03 120 4.89 7.79 35.43 36.69 144 5.95 8.52 44.92 45.83 168 7.23 8.84 53.48 52.83 192 4.49 8.43 64.54 62.61 216 3.87 7.76 76.19 72.38 240 8.62 6.47 79.51 78.99 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.06 4.52 17.05 17.51 48 6.03 8.46 21.82 22.39 72 11.47 13.65 29.48 30.62 96 13.99 17.43 40.19 42.08 120 13.77 18.96 49.98 53.92 144 16.15 19.93 63.65 65.94 168 19.58 25.00 77.92 79.73 192 18.49 23.64 93.11 90.22 216 14.89 22.25 108.77 103.23 240 15.21 18.83 115.55 114.81 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 -0.08 1.30 1.35 48 0.09 -0.06 1.52 1.59 72 0.09 -0.06 1.73 1.83 96 0.06 -0.10 2.02 2.15 120 0.04 -0.11 2.44 2.51 144 0.04 -0.09 2.85 2.93 168 0.09 -0.11 3.31 3.38 192 0.00 -0.10 3.89 3.80 216 -0.08 -0.16 4.39 4.30 240 0.06 -0.09 4.71 4.67 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.12 0.96 0.95 48 0.16 0.21 1.15 1.16 72 0.27 0.30 1.41 1.42 96 0.30 0.34 1.73 1.73 120 0.27 0.36 2.05 2.08 144 0.38 0.40 2.47 2.49 168 0.41 0.53 2.81 2.88 192 0.40 0.52 3.23 3.14 216 0.33 0.40 3.70 3.45 240 0.31 0.36 3.87 3.80 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.33 1.14 1.19 48 0.18 0.37 1.41 1.46 72 0.32 0.50 1.70 1.71 96 0.41 0.58 2.04 2.04 120 0.43 0.61 2.35 2.36 144 0.45 0.65 2.66 2.63 168 0.56 0.78 2.83 2.91 192 0.59 0.90 3.18 3.23 216 0.29 0.68 3.29 3.34 240 0.07 0.41 3.38 3.45 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.38 3.48 3.60 48 -0.56 -0.41 4.06 4.13 72 -0.64 -0.47 4.59 4.63 96 -0.76 -0.61 5.34 5.33 120 -0.91 -0.60 6.25 6.18 144 -0.75 -0.48 6.98 6.83 168 -0.60 -0.37 7.68 7.57 192 -0.53 -0.32 8.27 8.43 216 -0.58 -0.51 8.94 8.90 240 -0.73 -0.64 9.35 9.13 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.56 4.03 4.09 48 -0.80 -0.69 5.04 5.03 72 -0.85 -0.85 6.19 5.98 96 -0.87 -0.83 7.27 7.42 120 -0.96 -0.83 8.61 8.75 144 -0.89 -0.88 9.76 9.64 168 -0.72 -0.63 10.75 10.75 192 -0.46 -0.57 11.92 11.57 216 -0.53 -0.64 12.80 12.54 240 -0.73 -0.72 13.52 13.10 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.55 4.86 4.85 48 -1.00 -0.87 6.26 6.17 72 -1.29 -1.21 7.80 7.57 96 -1.42 -1.40 9.58 9.66 120 -1.72 -1.59 11.71 11.85 144 -1.68 -1.70 13.09 13.15 168 -1.61 -1.57 15.06 14.97 192 -1.69 -1.67 16.65 16.03 216 -1.89 -1.90 18.51 18.32 240 -1.99 -2.11 19.70 19.40 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.68 -3.51 7.86 7.80 48 -1.95 -1.00 8.93 9.46 72 -1.45 -0.02 12.58 14.21 96 -1.68 0.46 16.31 19.57 120 -3.06 2.44 22.28 27.59 144 -1.75 5.44 27.71 39.56 168 -0.90 8.92 31.97 48.99 192 0.42 9.49 39.56 52.62 216 2.21 12.61 42.12 52.81 240 4.22 16.48 43.69 61.74 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.02 -7.00 11.44 11.84 48 -4.81 -3.94 13.57 16.48 72 -4.93 -2.90 17.18 21.23 96 -7.56 -2.37 25.48 29.81 120 -8.28 -0.52 36.00 41.41 144 -7.51 4.73 43.62 56.78 168 -6.96 5.58 54.32 71.47 192 -6.77 6.64 59.54 81.13 216 -4.92 6.95 68.67 78.10 240 -5.62 10.64 68.34 95.71 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.61 -2.66 11.90 14.29 48 2.01 1.67 16.75 20.16 72 2.53 3.54 22.27 25.37 96 0.47 3.98 32.34 39.47 120 -0.74 5.18 44.17 52.25 144 -0.97 9.72 56.12 67.67 168 -1.82 8.67 71.68 90.50 192 -3.43 6.69 81.86 106.19 216 -4.16 6.84 88.05 100.54 240 -9.60 3.11 95.51 123.40 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.03 1.27 1.27 48 -0.17 -0.18 1.46 1.42 72 -0.23 -0.25 1.73 1.64 96 -0.37 -0.16 2.09 1.97 120 -0.40 -0.29 2.48 2.17 144 -0.44 -0.16 3.02 2.86 168 -0.43 -0.12 3.33 3.42 192 -0.40 -0.26 3.58 3.52 216 -0.50 -0.01 3.66 3.54 240 -0.41 -0.28 4.11 3.84 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.14 0.95 1.00 48 0.24 0.37 1.18 1.28 72 0.24 0.36 1.36 1.59 96 0.22 0.33 1.58 1.80 120 0.22 0.44 1.96 2.03 144 0.23 0.44 2.08 2.54 168 0.15 0.35 2.70 2.87 192 0.02 0.29 2.90 3.32 216 0.00 0.06 3.01 3.39 240 -0.26 -0.15 2.96 3.86 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.35 0.13 1.17 1.26 48 0.35 0.00 1.42 1.54 72 0.35 -0.10 1.60 1.86 96 0.30 -0.29 1.83 2.29 120 0.27 -0.41 2.17 2.49 144 0.23 -0.60 2.36 3.22 168 0.24 -0.67 2.68 3.46 192 0.14 -0.79 3.07 3.85 216 -0.11 -0.91 3.25 3.93 240 -0.30 -1.13 3.43 4.29 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.05 3.90 3.97 48 -0.19 -0.07 4.43 4.26 72 -0.20 -0.27 5.10 4.86 96 -0.35 -0.30 5.68 5.52 120 -0.53 -0.43 6.48 6.46 144 -0.49 -0.27 7.88 7.56 168 -0.46 -0.36 8.64 8.47 192 -0.59 -0.73 9.30 9.32 216 -0.82 -0.85 8.93 9.20 240 -0.95 -1.12 9.14 9.58 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.54 4.03 4.32 48 -0.57 -0.66 5.20 5.41 72 -0.97 -0.97 6.24 6.48 96 -0.93 -1.00 7.23 7.93 120 -0.90 -1.33 8.81 9.12 144 -1.29 -1.47 10.60 10.63 168 -1.26 -1.78 12.09 11.82 192 -1.36 -2.00 12.96 13.47 216 -1.49 -2.21 13.35 14.06 240 -1.81 -2.77 13.62 14.07 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.36 5.19 5.45 48 -0.91 -0.46 6.74 6.72 72 -1.12 -1.05 7.98 7.80 96 -1.32 -1.02 10.06 9.83 120 -1.29 -1.85 11.98 11.41 144 -1.75 -2.11 14.56 14.11 168 -1.89 -2.36 17.53 16.84 192 -2.08 -2.63 18.79 19.09 216 -1.81 -2.99 19.65 20.13 240 -2.03 -2.92 20.48 20.92 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.38 -4.79 10.14 10.55 48 -3.64 -3.53 10.51 11.43 72 -3.54 -3.74 11.57 11.89 96 -3.67 -4.10 12.23 13.34 120 -4.30 -5.09 13.08 14.28 144 -4.57 -6.14 13.78 15.45 168 -4.86 -6.57 14.72 16.34 192 -4.94 -7.06 15.28 17.30 216 -6.78 -8.99 16.57 19.23 240 -6.76 -8.74 17.02 19.78 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.13 -5.40 12.30 12.74 48 -4.63 -3.99 12.47 13.06 72 -5.11 -4.52 13.47 13.63 96 -5.25 -4.81 14.15 14.55 120 -6.16 -6.02 14.94 15.48 144 -6.54 -7.20 15.39 16.22 168 -7.35 -7.82 16.45 16.71 192 -7.77 -8.28 17.43 17.47 216 -9.18 -9.71 18.26 18.92 240 -9.29 -9.73 18.89 19.51 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.85 -4.32 13.42 14.32 48 -1.32 -1.21 13.81 14.61 72 -1.02 -0.87 14.49 15.11 96 -1.24 -0.97 15.50 16.15 120 -3.02 -2.56 16.63 17.38 144 -4.32 -4.40 17.72 18.47 168 -5.55 -5.36 19.33 19.97 192 -6.91 -5.78 21.04 21.37 216 -9.52 -8.73 23.70 23.07 240 -10.89 -9.66 25.13 24.25 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 -0.09 1.05 1.02 48 0.13 -0.03 1.14 1.08 72 0.12 -0.06 1.18 1.13 96 0.07 -0.06 1.22 1.20 120 0.05 -0.06 1.30 1.22 144 0.07 -0.03 1.33 1.27 168 0.09 -0.02 1.41 1.30 192 0.05 -0.01 1.41 1.36 216 0.12 0.00 1.49 1.38 240 0.11 0.01 1.59 1.42 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.17 0.84 0.83 48 -0.14 -0.15 0.90 0.88 72 -0.13 -0.13 0.95 0.93 96 -0.11 -0.12 1.00 0.97 120 -0.15 -0.13 1.07 1.03 144 -0.18 -0.19 1.11 1.13 168 -0.23 -0.19 1.18 1.18 192 -0.25 -0.19 1.23 1.23 216 -0.21 -0.16 1.28 1.25 240 -0.22 -0.19 1.33 1.31 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 0.41 0.82 0.80 48 0.53 0.53 0.94 0.90 72 0.56 0.54 1.00 0.96 96 0.54 0.56 1.03 1.00 120 0.50 0.52 1.06 1.02 144 0.45 0.50 1.06 1.04 168 0.41 0.47 1.11 1.06 192 0.35 0.46 1.11 1.11 216 0.14 0.24 1.08 1.11 240 0.01 0.18 1.14 1.13 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.47 3.59 3.55 48 -0.58 -0.48 3.89 3.97 72 -0.58 -0.52 4.18 4.27 96 -0.65 -0.60 4.56 4.40 120 -0.82 -0.72 4.64 4.64 144 -0.83 -0.79 4.92 4.83 168 -0.86 -0.85 5.23 5.11 192 -0.94 -0.88 5.46 5.45 216 -0.93 -0.89 5.61 5.73 240 -0.92 -0.85 5.88 5.80 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.82 3.77 3.88 48 -0.90 -0.96 4.09 4.20 72 -0.95 -1.03 4.46 4.48 96 -0.97 -1.07 4.91 4.86 120 -0.98 -1.11 5.07 5.21 144 -1.12 -1.19 5.58 5.62 168 -1.24 -1.22 5.99 5.90 192 -1.21 -1.27 6.33 6.14 216 -1.40 -1.41 6.45 6.47 240 -1.48 -1.46 6.79 6.82 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.72 5.39 5.41 48 -0.82 -1.12 6.05 6.31 72 -0.98 -1.24 6.85 6.93 96 -1.19 -1.41 7.43 7.65 120 -1.23 -1.53 8.07 8.27 144 -1.19 -1.52 8.65 9.05 168 -1.27 -1.51 9.33 9.57 192 -1.41 -1.67 10.09 10.41 216 -1.34 -1.99 10.39 10.41 240 -1.55 -1.98 11.04 11.01 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.78 -2.15 8.69 8.39 48 -1.31 -2.53 12.40 12.84 72 -0.01 -0.67 18.20 18.22 96 1.28 1.30 25.42 27.06 120 1.02 0.19 34.25 35.94 144 -0.21 -1.61 43.57 45.10 168 -0.68 -3.47 52.97 54.01 192 -0.81 -2.00 61.86 60.37 216 -1.30 0.49 69.76 69.52 240 0.80 0.66 74.69 75.55 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -1.46 11.34 11.06 48 -0.16 -1.71 16.23 16.63 72 1.42 0.27 24.53 25.26 96 3.08 2.18 35.90 36.35 120 3.30 2.39 48.40 50.58 144 2.40 1.16 61.86 62.93 168 0.93 -0.89 77.45 77.04 192 -0.10 -1.57 92.47 87.19 216 0.82 0.84 105.06 100.88 240 2.63 0.91 116.85 113.41 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.15 3.43 15.05 14.40 48 7.20 5.72 22.14 22.04 72 10.05 9.18 34.83 34.92 96 12.91 12.25 51.25 51.44 120 14.10 12.98 70.38 72.38 144 13.62 12.89 89.14 91.95 168 12.50 10.48 113.90 110.23 192 11.01 11.36 136.72 128.31 216 10.74 10.06 154.84 148.26 240 12.03 10.54 174.77 169.07 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.17 1.28 1.29 48 0.20 0.20 1.52 1.52 72 0.19 0.20 1.81 1.80 96 0.20 0.21 2.19 2.19 120 0.16 0.20 2.67 2.72 144 0.16 0.21 3.17 3.28 168 0.20 0.16 3.73 3.70 192 0.11 0.10 4.33 4.33 216 0.10 -0.07 4.83 4.74 240 0.10 -0.08 5.42 5.30 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.13 0.88 0.88 48 0.21 0.17 1.17 1.20 72 0.25 0.23 1.56 1.60 96 0.34 0.30 2.09 2.10 120 0.41 0.38 2.62 2.63 144 0.45 0.42 3.07 3.14 168 0.39 0.42 3.64 3.56 192 0.37 0.36 4.17 4.04 216 0.38 0.28 4.51 4.43 240 0.34 0.28 5.13 4.95 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.36 1.19 1.19 48 0.38 0.40 1.50 1.53 72 0.38 0.41 1.89 1.87 96 0.34 0.35 2.34 2.33 120 0.32 0.29 2.75 2.75 144 0.23 0.26 3.08 3.08 168 0.20 0.26 3.45 3.41 192 0.20 0.25 3.58 3.63 216 0.05 0.10 3.74 3.70 240 0.02 0.10 3.90 3.89 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.48 3.72 3.78 48 -0.44 -0.55 4.40 4.49 72 -0.53 -0.63 5.29 5.30 96 -0.63 -0.65 6.40 6.61 120 -0.79 -0.81 7.44 7.79 144 -0.81 -0.78 8.45 8.81 168 -0.71 -0.79 9.62 9.68 192 -0.67 -0.86 10.50 10.37 216 -0.79 -1.01 10.99 10.99 240 -0.96 -0.95 11.61 11.77 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.54 4.12 4.05 48 -0.69 -0.66 5.28 5.29 72 -0.86 -0.80 6.84 6.78 96 -1.01 -1.00 8.69 8.68 120 -1.18 -1.10 10.07 10.39 144 -1.32 -1.05 11.98 12.02 168 -1.28 -1.06 13.54 13.60 192 -1.21 -1.14 15.11 14.88 216 -1.35 -1.19 16.51 16.00 240 -1.50 -1.11 17.62 17.13 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.57 5.13 5.09 48 -0.78 -0.80 6.86 6.92 72 -1.03 -0.98 9.38 9.50 96 -1.13 -1.11 12.43 12.42 120 -1.39 -1.36 15.30 15.73 144 -1.57 -1.34 18.20 18.22 168 -1.62 -1.22 20.68 20.41 192 -1.48 -1.56 22.99 23.00 216 -1.67 -1.34 25.20 24.91 240 -1.71 -1.47 27.09 26.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.02 -4.49 9.44 11.15 48 -2.35 -4.26 12.07 14.44 72 -2.79 -4.81 16.35 19.59 96 -3.10 -5.93 22.09 25.95 120 -3.97 -6.70 29.97 31.31 144 -4.27 -7.29 35.15 40.23 168 -4.79 -6.56 40.93 48.24 192 -4.53 -6.05 46.56 52.35 216 -2.03 -4.98 50.49 56.41 240 0.51 -2.02 51.68 61.42 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.59 -5.26 12.45 12.79 48 -4.43 -4.15 16.72 17.69 72 -5.16 -4.63 22.14 24.96 96 -7.34 -5.27 32.76 35.51 120 -8.83 -6.82 43.35 43.35 144 -8.65 -7.96 51.53 57.26 168 -10.50 -9.08 62.97 67.39 192 -10.93 -9.63 68.38 76.31 216 -9.24 -7.63 79.12 78.12 240 -9.19 -4.78 79.02 87.17 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.84 -0.81 14.20 15.68 48 1.11 2.50 20.80 22.84 72 0.89 3.80 29.85 32.51 96 -1.42 3.48 43.37 47.81 120 -2.44 0.98 56.86 60.83 144 -3.71 -0.77 69.90 77.70 168 -8.00 -3.49 87.20 94.62 192 -9.48 -4.41 96.65 109.06 216 -10.90 -4.39 107.92 110.54 240 -14.21 -1.91 113.28 121.37 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.08 1.46 1.61 48 -0.07 0.13 1.62 1.83 72 -0.12 0.14 1.92 2.02 96 -0.28 0.13 2.31 2.34 120 -0.34 -0.01 2.70 2.62 144 -0.45 0.03 3.19 3.11 168 -0.43 -0.20 3.62 3.50 192 -0.39 -0.21 3.93 3.98 216 -0.93 -0.30 4.28 4.14 240 -0.89 -0.38 4.78 4.40 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.13 0.99 1.04 48 0.10 0.23 1.23 1.32 72 0.08 0.27 1.51 1.66 96 0.06 0.29 1.83 1.98 120 0.04 0.25 2.28 2.30 144 0.06 0.23 2.46 2.77 168 -0.06 0.16 3.07 3.09 192 -0.13 0.11 3.24 3.45 216 -0.19 0.22 3.36 3.59 240 -0.36 0.19 3.39 3.81 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.27 1.21 1.22 48 0.29 0.31 1.53 1.58 72 0.27 0.30 1.73 1.76 96 0.20 0.27 2.04 2.10 120 0.19 0.22 2.34 2.44 144 0.14 0.21 2.62 2.84 168 0.11 0.14 2.90 3.07 192 -0.02 0.12 3.24 3.27 216 -0.26 -0.11 3.52 3.38 240 -0.45 -0.14 3.78 3.59 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.31 4.39 4.53 48 -0.43 -0.38 4.94 5.04 72 -0.46 -0.53 5.59 5.87 96 -0.64 -0.37 6.24 6.74 120 -0.74 -0.38 7.17 7.48 144 -0.77 -0.27 8.44 8.35 168 -0.87 -0.52 8.94 9.49 192 -0.96 -1.02 9.99 10.43 216 -1.38 -1.28 9.89 10.61 240 -1.41 -1.53 10.41 10.98 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.49 4.59 4.75 48 -0.53 -0.55 5.74 6.07 72 -0.77 -0.79 6.99 7.16 96 -0.74 -0.66 8.11 8.75 120 -0.89 -0.83 9.79 10.11 144 -1.11 -0.82 11.30 11.40 168 -1.00 -1.09 12.85 12.71 192 -1.16 -1.24 13.72 14.20 216 -1.33 -1.52 14.44 14.58 240 -1.76 -1.76 14.58 15.06 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.64 5.69 6.00 48 -0.57 -0.74 7.43 7.64 72 -0.82 -1.05 9.11 9.34 96 -1.04 -0.99 11.19 11.69 120 -0.95 -1.34 13.29 13.99 144 -1.45 -1.39 15.65 16.13 168 -1.50 -1.54 18.44 18.59 192 -1.12 -1.64 19.89 20.83 216 -1.42 -1.95 21.59 21.96 240 -1.88 -2.34 22.47 22.87