VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 19.2 20.1 48 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 27.0 28.1 72 -0.1 -0.2 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 35.1 36.3 96 -0.2 -0.2 2.9 2.9 0.9 0.9 43.9 45.4 120 -0.2 -0.3 4.0 3.9 0.9 0.9 53.2 53.7 144 -0.2 -0.3 4.9 4.9 0.8 0.8 61.0 61.6 168 -0.2 -0.2 5.7 5.8 0.8 0.8 67.4 68.2 192 -0.2 -0.2 6.5 6.6 0.7 0.7 72.6 73.8 216 -0.2 -0.2 7.2 7.3 0.6 0.6 76.9 78.1 240 -0.2 -0.2 7.6 7.7 0.6 0.6 79.6 80.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.4 6.4 6.6 1.0 1.0 14.4 14.5 48 0.1 -0.6 11.7 11.8 1.0 1.0 21.7 21.9 72 0.7 0.3 18.6 18.8 1.0 1.0 29.5 29.7 96 0.6 0.5 28.2 28.4 0.9 0.9 38.0 38.0 120 0.4 0.1 40.0 39.3 0.9 0.9 46.5 45.9 144 0.7 0.2 50.1 50.6 0.8 0.8 53.8 53.3 168 0.6 0.5 61.2 61.8 0.8 0.8 60.2 60.3 192 -0.1 0.3 71.4 71.5 0.7 0.7 65.6 65.5 216 -0.8 -0.5 79.1 79.5 0.6 0.7 69.4 69.5 240 -1.3 -0.9 83.7 85.2 0.6 0.6 72.2 72.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.0 2.7 9.5 9.6 1.0 1.0 12.0 12.2 48 5.9 5.1 18.0 18.1 1.0 1.0 19.2 19.3 72 8.3 8.0 28.6 29.1 1.0 1.0 26.7 26.9 96 9.2 9.4 42.6 43.6 0.9 0.9 34.6 34.9 120 9.6 9.6 58.8 59.0 0.9 0.9 42.6 42.1 144 10.1 10.3 74.5 75.2 0.9 0.9 49.5 49.1 168 10.1 10.7 91.2 92.1 0.8 0.8 55.8 55.8 192 8.6 9.4 105.9 106.0 0.7 0.7 60.9 60.9 216 5.4 5.6 117.2 117.7 0.7 0.7 64.5 64.8 240 3.6 3.6 125.0 126.8 0.6 0.6 67.2 67.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.9 144 0.3 0.3 2.4 2.5 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 2.8 2.9 0.8 0.8 192 0.2 0.3 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 216 0.2 0.2 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.1 3.6 3.7 0.6 0.6 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.3 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.8 144 0.2 0.3 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 168 0.2 0.2 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 192 0.1 0.1 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 -0.1 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.1 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 2.8 2.8 48 -0.3 -0.3 4.0 4.0 72 -0.4 -0.4 5.3 5.3 96 -0.5 -0.5 6.8 6.8 120 -0.6 -0.6 8.4 8.3 144 -0.6 -0.6 9.8 9.7 168 -0.7 -0.7 11.0 11.1 192 -0.7 -0.7 12.2 12.2 216 -0.7 -0.8 12.9 12.9 240 -0.7 -0.8 13.5 13.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.4 4.2 4.2 48 -0.7 -0.7 6.2 6.2 72 -0.8 -0.8 8.4 8.4 96 -1.0 -1.0 10.9 11.0 120 -1.2 -1.1 13.4 13.5 144 -1.2 -1.1 15.9 15.9 168 -1.3 -1.2 18.1 18.2 192 -1.4 -1.4 19.9 19.9 216 -1.4 -1.4 21.2 21.3 240 -1.4 -1.5 22.2 22.2 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.6 -0.6 4.2 4.4 0.9 0.9 33.0 33.1 48 -0.9 -0.9 6.2 6.6 0.9 0.8 40.5 40.8 72 -1.6 -1.6 7.6 8.1 0.8 0.8 44.7 44.9 96 -1.8 -1.9 8.2 8.7 0.8 0.8 48.0 48.2 120 -2.2 -2.4 9.3 9.9 0.8 0.8 51.4 51.6 144 -2.7 -3.0 10.7 11.0 0.7 0.7 54.8 54.9 168 -2.8 -3.2 11.5 11.8 0.7 0.7 57.2 57.1 192 -2.9 -3.4 12.6 12.4 0.6 0.7 59.8 59.7 216 -3.7 -4.1 13.9 13.6 0.6 0.6 65.2 64.5 240 -4.8 -5.0 15.4 15.3 0.5 0.6 66.9 66.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.7 1.7 5.3 5.3 0.9 0.9 33.3 33.4 48 2.4 2.4 7.4 7.5 0.9 0.9 40.3 40.5 72 1.8 1.9 9.1 9.2 0.9 0.9 45.4 45.6 96 1.4 1.6 11.0 11.2 0.9 0.9 49.6 50.2 120 0.5 0.6 12.9 12.9 0.9 0.9 53.3 53.9 144 -0.7 -0.7 14.9 14.7 0.8 0.8 56.8 57.4 168 -1.5 -1.6 17.0 16.9 0.8 0.8 60.4 61.1 192 -2.2 -2.3 19.0 19.0 0.7 0.7 64.1 64.6 216 -4.8 -4.7 21.0 20.1 0.7 0.7 67.7 67.4 240 -7.0 -7.0 22.4 22.1 0.6 0.7 69.2 69.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 72 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 96 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 120 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 144 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 168 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 240 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 72 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 96 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 120 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 144 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 168 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 192 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 240 -0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 -0.1 1.9 1.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 2.6 2.6 72 -0.2 -0.3 3.1 3.1 96 -0.3 -0.4 3.5 3.5 120 -0.4 -0.5 3.9 3.8 144 -0.5 -0.6 4.3 4.2 168 -0.6 -0.6 4.6 4.5 192 -0.5 -0.6 4.8 4.8 216 -0.5 -0.5 5.2 5.1 240 -0.5 -0.6 5.4 5.3 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.5 -0.5 4.1 4.2 48 -0.7 -0.8 5.4 5.5 72 -0.8 -0.9 6.4 6.4 96 -0.9 -0.9 7.3 7.4 120 -0.9 -0.9 8.1 8.2 144 -0.9 -1.0 8.8 8.9 168 -1.0 -1.1 9.6 9.7 192 -1.1 -1.2 10.2 10.4 216 -1.1 -1.1 10.9 10.9 240 -1.2 -1.2 11.2 11.4 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 18.0 18.2 48 0.0 0.1 2.4 2.5 1.0 1.0 26.1 26.2 72 0.0 0.1 3.6 3.5 1.0 1.0 34.5 34.2 96 0.1 0.1 5.0 5.0 0.9 0.9 42.9 42.3 120 0.1 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.9 0.9 50.0 50.1 144 0.1 0.2 7.8 7.8 0.8 0.8 56.1 56.5 168 0.0 0.2 9.1 8.7 0.8 0.8 61.5 61.0 192 0.1 0.1 10.0 9.7 0.7 0.8 65.4 64.6 216 0.2 0.3 11.0 10.6 0.7 0.7 68.5 68.5 240 0.3 0.4 11.7 11.4 0.6 0.6 71.0 71.6 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.4 -0.2 10.6 10.6 1.0 1.0 12.3 12.4 48 -1.5 -0.8 19.3 19.2 1.0 1.0 19.0 18.9 72 -2.2 -1.7 31.4 30.8 1.0 1.0 26.1 25.9 96 -2.7 -2.3 45.9 45.1 0.9 0.9 33.4 33.0 120 -3.0 -2.3 60.5 60.4 0.9 0.9 39.5 39.8 144 -3.7 -2.5 73.3 75.0 0.9 0.9 44.6 45.8 168 -4.7 -3.9 88.8 86.5 0.8 0.8 50.1 50.1 192 -5.4 -4.8 102.2 98.9 0.8 0.8 54.3 53.4 216 -5.8 -5.7 113.1 109.0 0.7 0.7 57.6 56.7 240 -6.6 -6.6 120.3 119.2 0.7 0.7 59.6 60.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.9 2.0 12.6 12.8 1.0 1.0 9.2 9.3 48 2.3 3.2 23.6 23.4 1.0 1.0 14.4 14.4 72 1.9 2.6 38.9 38.1 1.0 1.0 20.4 20.3 96 1.4 1.6 57.4 56.3 0.9 1.0 26.6 26.4 120 0.6 1.2 76.1 76.2 0.9 0.9 32.4 32.5 144 -1.0 0.2 93.6 95.7 0.9 0.9 37.2 38.2 168 -2.8 -2.0 113.9 111.4 0.8 0.8 42.4 42.5 192 -4.1 -3.9 133.6 129.3 0.8 0.8 46.9 46.2 216 -6.5 -7.6 148.7 143.1 0.7 0.8 50.2 49.2 240 -8.8 -9.7 158.9 157.8 0.7 0.7 52.2 52.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.7 0.9 0.9 144 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.2 0.8 0.8 168 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 192 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.8 216 -0.1 -0.2 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.7 240 -0.1 -0.2 4.5 4.6 0.7 0.6 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 72 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 -0.1 -0.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.8 144 -0.2 -0.2 3.0 3.1 0.8 0.8 168 -0.2 -0.3 3.5 3.4 0.8 0.8 192 -0.3 -0.3 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.7 216 -0.4 -0.5 4.0 3.9 0.7 0.7 240 -0.5 -0.6 4.2 4.1 0.6 0.7 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 3.8 3.9 48 -0.1 -0.1 5.7 5.6 72 -0.1 -0.2 7.6 7.5 96 -0.2 -0.2 9.8 9.6 120 -0.2 -0.3 11.6 11.7 144 -0.3 -0.3 13.3 13.5 168 -0.3 -0.4 15.0 14.9 192 -0.4 -0.4 16.4 16.1 216 -0.5 -0.6 17.5 17.1 240 -0.6 -0.7 18.2 18.3 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.1 4.5 4.5 48 -0.2 -0.2 6.8 6.7 72 -0.4 -0.3 9.4 9.3 96 -0.4 -0.4 12.4 12.3 120 -0.5 -0.4 15.0 15.1 144 -0.5 -0.5 17.6 17.9 168 -0.5 -0.6 20.3 20.2 192 -0.6 -0.6 22.8 22.3 216 -0.7 -0.7 24.5 24.0 240 -0.8 -0.8 25.7 25.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.49 -4.55 7.85 7.86 48 -4.07 -5.90 10.87 11.08 72 -3.62 -4.19 14.52 14.18 96 -4.56 -5.05 18.81 20.52 120 -5.49 -5.98 26.10 26.49 144 -5.75 -8.51 30.18 30.93 168 -8.28 -9.78 35.67 37.17 192 -10.88 -9.26 41.86 41.30 216 -14.37 -11.64 45.15 47.14 240 -14.90 -13.26 47.93 50.14 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.40 -4.16 8.36 8.80 48 -2.48 -5.18 12.36 13.10 72 -1.10 -3.38 18.11 18.27 96 -2.07 -4.04 25.62 25.69 120 -2.56 -4.24 33.97 33.87 144 -2.72 -4.81 40.03 43.10 168 -5.92 -6.71 50.11 53.09 192 -9.86 -9.24 58.44 59.16 216 -16.70 -12.73 65.39 67.73 240 -17.56 -17.08 72.29 75.24 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.07 2.94 12.65 11.75 48 7.83 3.99 20.68 19.02 72 10.25 7.87 29.91 29.57 96 10.50 8.12 40.94 40.80 120 11.72 9.21 51.43 51.55 144 11.56 9.80 61.79 66.67 168 7.61 7.87 77.01 80.79 192 -0.14 1.75 88.77 91.38 216 -12.98 -8.80 99.21 100.05 240 -15.28 -15.52 112.91 115.61 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.06 1.25 1.25 48 -0.03 -0.11 1.56 1.45 72 -0.06 -0.13 1.79 1.76 96 -0.08 -0.14 2.13 2.04 120 -0.09 -0.17 2.41 2.46 144 -0.01 -0.14 2.82 2.96 168 -0.12 -0.14 3.43 3.50 192 -0.12 -0.26 3.76 3.90 216 -0.13 -0.28 4.13 4.08 240 -0.26 -0.56 4.69 4.60 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.15 0.83 0.90 48 0.27 0.23 1.10 1.12 72 0.30 0.31 1.39 1.45 96 0.35 0.32 1.63 1.76 120 0.39 0.40 1.92 2.08 144 0.42 0.52 2.22 2.44 168 0.38 0.54 2.59 2.75 192 0.26 0.37 2.69 2.90 216 -0.07 0.09 3.01 3.04 240 -0.09 -0.08 3.33 3.45 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.69 0.64 1.18 1.15 48 0.83 0.75 1.52 1.44 72 0.89 0.81 1.77 1.74 96 0.96 0.85 2.01 2.07 120 0.96 0.85 2.40 2.32 144 0.98 0.90 2.59 2.68 168 0.98 0.93 2.80 2.89 192 0.87 0.70 2.95 2.96 216 0.68 0.50 2.97 3.13 240 0.55 0.46 3.09 3.17 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.60 3.57 3.54 48 -0.39 -0.75 4.11 4.15 72 -0.38 -0.88 4.89 4.97 96 -0.54 -0.96 5.58 5.98 120 -0.64 -0.97 6.36 6.73 144 -0.65 -0.91 7.20 7.49 168 -0.62 -1.01 8.26 8.70 192 -0.49 -1.15 8.78 9.03 216 -0.68 -1.30 8.94 9.33 240 -0.73 -1.30 9.32 9.44 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.50 3.78 3.73 48 -0.70 -0.77 4.71 4.69 72 -0.86 -0.89 5.86 5.83 96 -1.04 -1.11 7.34 7.46 120 -1.05 -1.10 8.76 8.59 144 -1.23 -1.23 9.51 10.16 168 -1.09 -1.40 11.19 11.03 192 -0.92 -1.10 12.09 11.94 216 -0.93 -1.36 12.47 12.63 240 -1.03 -1.17 13.25 13.14 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.69 5.44 5.31 48 -1.02 -0.98 7.47 7.20 72 -1.14 -1.15 9.58 9.54 96 -1.41 -1.28 11.77 12.17 120 -1.55 -1.50 14.17 13.88 144 -1.90 -1.75 16.05 16.50 168 -1.97 -2.10 18.66 18.57 192 -1.84 -2.22 20.46 20.34 216 -1.48 -2.03 21.75 21.62 240 -1.64 -1.74 22.73 23.00 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.95 -2.79 7.88 7.98 48 -2.62 -3.78 11.00 11.44 72 -1.63 -1.49 15.12 15.38 96 -0.79 -0.86 22.37 23.13 120 4.34 0.55 32.57 31.55 144 4.56 0.80 43.31 38.83 168 5.88 4.75 49.93 45.50 192 10.79 5.26 56.31 52.49 216 10.99 7.22 60.68 61.40 240 12.21 5.75 61.14 63.54 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.80 -2.33 10.44 10.07 48 -1.83 -2.76 15.31 14.43 72 -0.07 0.58 21.38 22.28 96 1.99 4.84 32.62 33.92 120 7.39 7.88 48.19 44.79 144 9.00 8.94 67.72 63.43 168 16.47 13.07 80.52 77.87 192 22.73 14.32 94.64 87.68 216 20.61 17.24 103.79 100.57 240 21.05 17.02 105.65 104.52 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.63 2.47 14.88 14.08 48 6.40 5.00 22.86 20.72 72 11.79 12.13 36.78 34.59 96 13.96 20.79 51.90 55.14 120 18.17 24.25 71.99 69.27 144 21.51 26.18 105.64 100.14 168 34.61 28.74 128.86 121.96 192 43.51 29.89 153.94 135.99 216 31.93 32.91 160.73 151.27 240 30.49 34.75 160.96 161.10 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.28 1.15 1.21 48 0.13 0.36 1.35 1.44 72 0.15 0.38 1.65 1.65 96 0.26 0.53 1.89 2.12 120 0.36 0.75 2.60 2.60 144 0.42 0.93 3.28 3.02 168 0.70 1.02 3.94 3.60 192 0.81 1.16 4.42 4.24 216 0.77 1.35 5.00 4.77 240 0.74 1.41 5.22 5.36 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.10 0.85 0.83 48 0.17 0.19 1.09 1.07 72 0.32 0.35 1.44 1.45 96 0.33 0.62 1.79 1.88 120 0.42 0.59 2.45 2.22 144 0.38 0.61 3.03 2.82 168 0.71 0.65 3.51 3.45 192 0.77 0.64 4.04 3.75 216 0.55 0.67 4.10 3.75 240 0.54 0.72 4.24 4.13 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 0.46 1.12 1.09 48 0.44 0.46 1.47 1.41 72 0.47 0.51 1.80 1.71 96 0.50 0.72 2.17 2.15 120 0.54 0.79 2.56 2.54 144 0.58 0.98 3.00 2.81 168 0.69 0.72 3.24 3.10 192 0.79 0.77 3.37 3.32 216 0.82 0.81 3.52 3.42 240 0.23 0.91 3.62 3.52 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.71 3.61 3.51 48 -0.68 -0.92 4.14 3.94 72 -0.77 -1.05 4.73 4.64 96 -0.77 -0.94 5.74 5.72 120 -1.13 -1.02 7.07 6.84 144 -1.14 -1.28 8.30 8.02 168 -1.39 -1.57 9.20 8.45 192 -1.30 -1.77 9.69 9.26 216 -1.76 -1.72 10.17 9.94 240 -2.16 -1.91 10.14 9.81 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.58 3.95 3.83 48 -0.68 -0.87 4.90 4.77 72 -0.84 -0.99 5.93 5.96 96 -1.09 -1.23 7.90 7.60 120 -1.34 -1.32 9.85 9.19 144 -1.76 -1.62 12.43 11.90 168 -1.77 -1.65 13.59 13.76 192 -1.71 -1.93 15.20 15.21 216 -1.99 -2.14 16.01 16.05 240 -2.21 -2.21 17.08 16.79 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.69 5.54 5.33 48 -1.17 -1.18 7.46 7.03 72 -1.64 -1.20 9.82 9.61 96 -1.80 -1.81 12.78 13.19 120 -1.89 -1.63 17.13 15.42 144 -2.06 -2.58 20.79 20.29 168 -2.38 -2.41 23.42 22.88 192 -2.41 -2.57 26.54 25.75 216 -2.81 -2.73 27.03 26.87 240 -2.84 -2.78 28.40 28.28 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.71 -2.89 8.82 8.78 48 -1.76 -2.17 11.34 11.12 72 -0.77 -0.92 15.13 15.24 96 -2.86 -1.81 19.29 19.38 120 -5.67 -3.69 26.26 25.40 144 -5.93 -5.43 33.28 32.29 168 -6.31 -5.16 38.63 36.56 192 -6.31 -6.51 43.48 40.84 216 -8.07 -7.64 48.23 46.12 240 -11.48 -8.32 52.23 48.08 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.76 -2.04 13.51 12.42 48 -0.06 -0.13 16.18 15.20 72 2.22 2.39 20.76 20.31 96 1.31 2.55 25.73 24.78 120 -0.80 1.27 33.71 32.69 144 -1.13 -0.11 43.07 42.23 168 -1.72 -0.05 51.29 50.47 192 -0.40 0.56 57.57 57.89 216 -1.85 -0.42 63.44 64.80 240 -3.37 -0.72 68.94 68.42 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 2.51 18.39 17.45 48 5.71 8.31 23.96 24.05 72 10.94 14.51 31.90 33.90 96 12.23 17.09 43.00 42.11 120 12.34 16.47 54.69 54.23 144 13.04 15.81 67.63 67.92 168 12.90 16.27 81.51 81.89 192 14.99 17.17 94.39 94.38 216 13.33 14.43 104.67 106.73 240 14.40 16.32 111.94 113.39 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.09 1.27 1.32 48 0.12 -0.03 1.46 1.52 72 0.16 0.06 1.70 1.83 96 0.20 0.10 1.97 2.11 120 0.24 0.13 2.33 2.44 144 0.27 0.20 2.73 2.78 168 0.30 0.16 3.10 3.10 192 0.34 0.25 3.47 3.39 216 0.37 0.49 3.78 3.82 240 0.30 0.48 4.17 4.03 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.15 1.00 1.00 48 0.16 0.24 1.21 1.22 72 0.32 0.38 1.50 1.51 96 0.40 0.48 1.79 1.76 120 0.49 0.51 2.07 2.12 144 0.52 0.57 2.43 2.41 168 0.53 0.55 2.73 2.74 192 0.64 0.61 3.06 3.06 216 0.60 0.60 3.29 3.42 240 0.68 0.66 3.54 3.53 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.46 1.21 1.28 48 0.45 0.66 1.54 1.63 72 0.59 0.83 1.86 1.99 96 0.67 0.89 2.26 2.27 120 0.78 0.92 2.57 2.60 144 0.74 0.93 2.78 2.80 168 0.76 0.87 3.00 3.02 192 0.62 0.73 3.19 3.12 216 0.50 0.50 3.33 3.25 240 0.44 0.65 3.51 3.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.43 3.47 3.49 48 -0.81 -0.54 4.05 4.12 72 -0.72 -0.49 4.79 4.95 96 -0.75 -0.58 5.68 5.52 120 -0.69 -0.52 6.35 6.46 144 -0.76 -0.44 7.23 7.29 168 -0.71 -0.45 7.83 7.98 192 -0.79 -0.59 8.40 8.41 216 -0.79 -0.34 8.74 8.84 240 -0.84 -0.48 9.05 9.03 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.47 4.14 4.13 48 -0.98 -0.79 5.25 5.15 72 -1.09 -0.86 6.21 6.15 96 -1.11 -0.97 7.27 7.15 120 -1.23 -1.04 8.29 8.17 144 -1.25 -1.02 9.49 9.19 168 -1.31 -1.07 10.33 10.23 192 -1.42 -1.25 11.18 10.86 216 -1.66 -1.49 11.57 11.77 240 -1.39 -1.47 12.22 12.08 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.54 5.91 5.87 48 -1.29 -1.04 7.86 7.58 72 -1.53 -1.36 9.32 9.35 96 -1.68 -1.50 11.54 11.32 120 -1.93 -1.79 13.53 13.41 144 -2.07 -1.73 15.22 15.01 168 -2.29 -1.79 17.03 17.14 192 -2.50 -2.24 19.05 18.29 216 -2.51 -2.25 20.00 19.91 240 -2.50 -2.14 21.17 20.96 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.85 -3.98 7.91 8.55 48 -2.36 -1.31 8.14 10.76 72 0.37 -0.11 12.32 17.36 96 0.76 0.68 18.03 22.91 120 0.55 1.61 23.28 30.61 144 1.36 6.11 26.97 36.50 168 1.77 4.03 35.59 45.78 192 3.82 7.23 40.82 48.04 216 6.71 9.72 43.97 54.01 240 6.55 11.34 46.60 62.97 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.09 -5.95 11.58 12.36 48 -6.20 -4.22 13.49 16.20 72 -3.87 -3.79 17.84 22.57 96 -2.92 -3.33 24.25 33.70 120 -4.51 -1.00 31.26 43.00 144 -3.57 3.25 38.69 50.57 168 -6.15 -2.36 53.37 70.63 192 -2.91 3.20 60.96 77.03 216 0.13 6.52 62.94 79.61 240 -0.37 9.91 61.23 90.85 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.64 -2.92 12.29 13.62 48 -0.21 -0.31 15.53 19.42 72 1.93 -2.41 23.70 28.30 96 0.53 -3.87 31.07 37.97 120 -3.57 -1.96 39.92 50.65 144 -5.14 -2.98 53.28 62.15 168 -11.23 -9.14 74.11 87.09 192 -7.85 -4.46 87.67 100.42 216 -7.46 -0.62 85.51 102.66 240 -10.55 1.09 91.42 113.21 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 0.07 1.20 1.25 48 -0.22 -0.05 1.36 1.35 72 -0.29 -0.12 1.54 1.58 96 -0.20 -0.13 1.76 1.83 120 -0.24 -0.03 2.10 2.06 144 -0.33 -0.37 2.48 2.46 168 -0.45 -0.49 3.03 3.07 192 -0.46 -0.38 3.37 3.15 216 -0.43 -0.50 3.57 3.23 240 -0.51 -0.34 3.71 3.73 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.14 0.94 1.02 48 0.08 0.13 1.19 1.19 72 0.15 0.10 1.35 1.53 96 0.14 0.15 1.62 1.79 120 0.15 0.17 1.87 2.16 144 0.07 0.00 2.18 2.48 168 -0.18 0.02 2.76 2.87 192 -0.12 0.00 3.09 3.31 216 -0.19 0.06 3.18 3.27 240 -0.21 -0.05 3.19 3.68 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.11 1.17 1.20 48 0.18 0.06 1.36 1.51 72 -0.01 -0.18 1.63 2.15 96 -0.22 -0.54 2.01 2.43 120 -0.34 -0.70 2.35 2.81 144 -0.46 -0.94 2.65 3.14 168 -0.53 -0.84 3.11 3.66 192 -0.72 -1.23 3.63 4.21 216 -0.89 -1.46 3.73 4.15 240 -1.14 -1.42 3.72 4.55 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 0.04 3.82 3.88 48 -0.26 0.17 4.39 4.56 72 -0.39 -0.09 5.05 5.11 96 -0.57 0.12 5.63 5.89 120 -0.49 -0.30 6.70 6.70 144 -0.45 -0.86 7.47 7.72 168 -0.67 -0.61 8.69 8.85 192 -0.88 -0.45 9.10 9.85 216 -1.14 -0.72 9.33 9.85 240 -0.89 -0.39 9.96 10.28 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.52 4.18 4.39 48 -0.69 -0.84 5.06 5.33 72 -0.84 -0.95 6.24 6.25 96 -1.17 -0.82 7.37 7.59 120 -1.15 -1.40 8.55 8.83 144 -1.42 -1.25 10.06 10.72 168 -1.10 -1.21 12.07 12.51 192 -1.07 -0.82 13.63 13.32 216 -1.51 -1.40 14.15 13.98 240 -1.69 -1.19 13.87 14.32 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.50 4.80 5.03 48 -0.99 -0.85 5.96 6.28 72 -1.56 -1.20 7.32 7.84 96 -1.85 -1.31 9.36 9.05 120 -2.22 -1.65 10.97 10.98 144 -2.18 -1.76 13.51 13.84 168 -2.40 -1.53 16.66 16.43 192 -1.77 -0.51 19.85 19.23 216 -2.43 -1.83 21.02 19.47 240 -3.26 -1.27 20.59 19.92 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.60 -4.64 9.12 10.04 48 -2.27 -2.96 9.12 10.24 72 -2.29 -2.86 9.95 11.05 96 -2.06 -3.02 10.86 11.91 120 -2.72 -3.76 11.55 12.84 144 -3.54 -5.20 12.53 14.22 168 -3.86 -5.65 13.13 14.69 192 -4.23 -6.43 13.54 15.72 216 -6.18 -7.94 15.38 17.04 240 -6.59 -8.54 16.95 18.76 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.13 -5.51 12.17 12.22 48 -3.97 -4.04 12.19 11.99 72 -4.32 -4.13 12.84 12.48 96 -4.08 -4.09 13.58 13.23 120 -4.76 -4.56 14.26 14.12 144 -5.53 -5.89 14.79 14.89 168 -5.72 -6.23 15.55 15.47 192 -5.84 -7.40 15.94 16.04 216 -7.75 -8.64 17.29 16.86 240 -8.30 -9.67 18.13 18.00 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.34 -5.50 14.52 14.24 48 -2.49 -2.77 14.85 14.07 72 -2.30 -1.91 15.94 14.78 96 -2.25 -1.50 17.40 16.17 120 -3.49 -2.19 18.54 17.48 144 -4.79 -4.25 20.05 18.47 168 -6.78 -5.53 21.59 19.79 192 -8.05 -5.66 23.23 21.53 216 -11.29 -8.91 25.40 23.14 240 -13.30 -11.18 26.38 24.51 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.04 1.12 1.03 48 0.20 0.05 1.23 1.14 72 0.20 0.06 1.30 1.22 96 0.18 0.06 1.34 1.29 120 0.19 0.08 1.41 1.37 144 0.18 0.07 1.53 1.45 168 0.20 0.12 1.60 1.61 192 0.26 0.12 1.68 1.69 216 0.29 0.14 1.80 1.70 240 0.24 0.07 1.81 1.75 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.16 0.88 0.85 48 -0.21 -0.12 0.90 0.88 72 -0.18 -0.09 0.96 0.94 96 -0.15 -0.05 1.01 1.00 120 -0.14 -0.02 1.07 1.05 144 -0.15 -0.02 1.12 1.11 168 -0.22 -0.03 1.21 1.17 192 -0.26 -0.06 1.25 1.22 216 -0.25 -0.03 1.33 1.26 240 -0.25 -0.03 1.38 1.31 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.35 0.80 0.76 48 0.41 0.44 0.87 0.86 72 0.43 0.46 0.94 0.94 96 0.40 0.45 0.99 0.99 120 0.39 0.43 1.01 1.03 144 0.33 0.40 1.02 1.06 168 0.30 0.39 1.04 1.11 192 0.27 0.40 1.10 1.17 216 0.09 0.20 1.09 1.13 240 -0.03 0.06 1.10 1.13 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.85 3.69 3.78 48 -0.63 -0.85 4.05 4.11 72 -0.72 -0.93 4.47 4.37 96 -0.83 -1.04 4.74 4.70 120 -0.95 -1.18 5.04 5.11 144 -1.02 -1.34 5.49 5.42 168 -1.11 -1.37 5.72 5.63 192 -1.19 -1.46 5.91 5.92 216 -1.18 -1.50 6.15 6.20 240 -1.19 -1.50 6.20 6.45 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.85 4.01 3.89 48 -0.99 -0.92 4.37 4.33 72 -1.15 -1.12 4.75 4.70 96 -1.16 -1.16 5.17 5.07 120 -1.15 -1.16 5.48 5.44 144 -1.10 -1.00 5.92 5.80 168 -0.98 -0.96 6.36 6.30 192 -1.00 -0.98 6.64 6.50 216 -1.14 -1.11 7.01 6.84 240 -1.17 -1.14 7.30 7.01 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.53 5.40 5.25 48 -0.81 -0.80 6.28 6.15 72 -1.01 -0.82 7.00 7.03 96 -0.99 -0.88 7.79 7.73 120 -1.00 -0.90 8.39 8.57 144 -1.24 -0.93 8.89 9.36 168 -1.16 -0.99 9.60 9.92 192 -1.40 -1.11 10.32 10.81 216 -1.58 -1.11 10.93 11.14 240 -1.57 -1.13 11.41 11.78 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.92 -3.64 8.53 8.65 48 -3.03 -4.01 11.51 11.78 72 -2.46 -2.40 16.04 16.26 96 -2.28 -2.49 22.60 23.62 120 -1.38 -2.02 32.20 32.18 144 -0.99 -2.90 40.60 39.86 168 -0.09 -0.99 47.60 48.36 192 0.19 -0.68 54.31 53.64 216 -0.73 -1.06 59.84 60.61 240 -1.43 -1.25 63.95 64.34 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.70 -2.63 11.25 10.85 48 -1.43 -2.65 15.69 15.42 72 -0.48 -0.74 21.98 22.27 96 0.38 0.27 31.89 32.21 120 1.30 1.21 44.21 44.40 144 2.41 1.13 57.18 57.05 168 2.12 3.05 69.04 70.33 192 4.70 3.23 80.84 79.19 216 3.78 1.84 88.58 88.30 240 1.61 0.65 93.75 95.12 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.75 2.87 15.51 14.92 48 6.46 5.04 22.98 22.16 72 9.19 8.98 33.94 33.97 96 10.98 11.59 48.99 50.42 120 11.57 12.53 66.19 67.58 144 13.91 13.86 86.52 87.19 168 15.88 15.56 105.71 106.84 192 17.54 14.58 124.17 119.91 216 14.19 9.50 133.94 131.54 240 8.43 7.16 140.74 144.15 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.11 1.21 1.22 48 0.11 0.12 1.43 1.44 72 0.10 0.13 1.67 1.69 96 0.14 0.15 2.01 2.08 120 0.15 0.20 2.43 2.50 144 0.19 0.27 2.91 2.96 168 0.17 0.27 3.51 3.41 192 0.29 0.25 3.94 3.88 216 0.31 0.28 4.30 4.28 240 0.29 0.22 4.66 4.63 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.14 0.90 0.91 48 0.20 0.20 1.16 1.18 72 0.27 0.28 1.52 1.54 96 0.28 0.36 1.88 1.98 120 0.32 0.36 2.30 2.41 144 0.39 0.43 2.79 2.80 168 0.41 0.45 3.20 3.28 192 0.41 0.42 3.55 3.60 216 0.35 0.27 3.78 3.80 240 0.25 0.19 4.01 4.12 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.45 0.44 1.22 1.24 48 0.49 0.45 1.60 1.60 72 0.50 0.48 1.98 2.01 96 0.50 0.50 2.38 2.41 120 0.49 0.44 2.74 2.77 144 0.42 0.48 3.16 3.09 168 0.42 0.34 3.40 3.42 192 0.35 0.23 3.53 3.56 216 0.23 0.13 3.60 3.65 240 0.06 0.09 3.76 3.77 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.49 3.60 3.54 48 -0.56 -0.63 4.19 4.17 72 -0.58 -0.79 5.03 5.02 96 -0.71 -0.80 5.94 6.07 120 -0.84 -0.80 7.00 7.01 144 -0.83 -0.83 7.92 8.07 168 -0.88 -0.96 8.89 8.94 192 -0.74 -1.07 9.50 9.49 216 -1.00 -1.07 9.98 10.03 240 -1.23 -1.19 10.09 10.21 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.47 3.94 3.90 48 -0.67 -0.69 4.99 5.01 72 -0.81 -0.82 6.30 6.25 96 -1.00 -0.96 7.83 7.80 120 -1.06 -1.01 9.45 9.20 144 -1.21 -1.11 10.99 10.99 168 -1.20 -1.10 12.38 12.50 192 -1.11 -1.26 13.54 13.37 216 -1.30 -1.44 14.17 14.10 240 -1.37 -1.40 14.90 14.98 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.61 5.42 5.19 48 -0.95 -0.92 7.33 7.19 72 -1.20 -1.05 9.80 9.68 96 -1.36 -1.36 12.38 12.48 120 -1.54 -1.18 15.20 14.76 144 -1.69 -1.31 17.85 17.92 168 -1.68 -1.46 20.19 20.68 192 -1.65 -1.78 22.82 22.19 216 -1.81 -1.82 23.50 23.27 240 -1.84 -1.85 24.76 24.73 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.67 -2.74 8.88 10.70 48 -2.27 -2.69 11.43 14.55 72 -0.94 -1.76 16.76 19.15 96 -0.67 -0.88 24.92 25.85 120 -0.82 -1.37 31.28 34.75 144 -2.80 -0.32 38.71 40.01 168 -3.75 -2.89 47.63 47.23 192 -2.68 -4.20 52.41 50.85 216 -1.59 -2.64 55.09 55.73 240 -1.77 -3.15 57.37 62.15 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.79 -2.93 11.78 13.20 48 -5.19 -2.99 16.15 19.09 72 -4.43 -1.80 23.80 26.54 96 -3.52 -0.26 33.21 37.17 120 -3.20 0.92 41.64 46.05 144 -4.02 1.84 52.04 57.34 168 -7.34 -0.37 66.26 68.69 192 -6.52 -2.14 74.81 76.97 216 -3.88 -1.25 79.93 80.79 240 -5.76 -2.48 77.33 91.17 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.80 0.09 13.72 16.46 48 0.53 3.17 19.95 23.79 72 1.82 5.70 30.81 34.87 96 2.71 8.51 41.74 48.61 120 3.14 11.37 53.72 59.20 144 2.43 13.48 69.13 78.31 168 -3.74 11.80 87.92 94.25 192 -2.75 8.25 102.63 108.49 216 -0.49 4.96 107.84 110.74 240 -3.93 5.44 110.98 123.59 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.07 1.45 1.52 48 -0.04 0.09 1.58 1.85 72 -0.08 0.06 1.89 2.15 96 0.00 0.15 2.27 2.59 120 -0.01 0.23 2.65 2.88 144 -0.06 0.15 3.15 3.31 168 -0.08 0.07 3.65 3.86 192 -0.12 0.05 4.12 4.33 216 -0.28 -0.21 4.56 4.63 240 -0.42 -0.26 4.64 5.14 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.10 0.97 0.98 48 0.13 0.20 1.24 1.25 72 0.19 0.24 1.49 1.60 96 0.22 0.35 1.88 2.05 120 0.30 0.43 2.23 2.35 144 0.36 0.47 2.72 2.82 168 0.17 0.54 3.13 3.17 192 0.23 0.44 3.41 3.51 216 0.22 0.28 3.66 3.55 240 0.22 0.43 3.61 3.96 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.24 1.21 1.17 48 0.20 0.31 1.45 1.43 72 0.09 0.33 1.76 1.87 96 -0.03 0.23 2.13 2.16 120 -0.10 0.19 2.53 2.43 144 -0.17 0.16 2.82 2.78 168 -0.24 0.19 3.18 3.01 192 -0.29 0.17 3.52 3.40 216 -0.37 0.04 3.76 3.30 240 -0.54 -0.03 3.75 3.66 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.31 4.07 4.49 48 -0.43 -0.24 4.64 5.13 72 -0.53 -0.48 5.43 5.68 96 -0.69 -0.52 6.47 6.57 120 -0.63 -0.69 7.34 7.62 144 -0.66 -0.91 8.65 8.91 168 -1.01 -0.82 9.81 9.91 192 -1.17 -0.74 10.15 10.81 216 -1.57 -1.18 10.29 10.95 240 -1.28 -1.08 10.91 11.37 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.53 4.45 4.65 48 -0.50 -0.60 5.56 5.87 72 -0.71 -0.84 6.83 7.19 96 -1.00 -0.95 8.49 8.56 120 -1.12 -1.38 9.91 10.70 144 -1.29 -1.23 11.60 12.61 168 -1.15 -1.25 13.31 13.85 192 -1.24 -1.05 14.56 15.02 216 -1.61 -1.77 15.21 15.42 240 -1.64 -1.83 14.88 16.18 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.59 5.47 5.56 48 -0.72 -0.68 7.06 7.20 72 -1.01 -0.79 8.67 9.26 96 -1.19 -0.89 11.10 11.51 120 -1.64 -1.22 13.06 14.05 144 -1.94 -1.51 15.63 17.15 168 -2.07 -1.59 18.75 19.28 192 -2.01 -1.18 21.56 22.02 216 -2.52 -2.05 22.58 22.53 240 -3.17 -1.79 22.34 23.53