VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- N.C.E.P./U.S.A. JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL (GFS) ----------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 20.5 21.6 48 -0.2 -0.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 28.2 29.8 72 -0.2 -0.3 1.9 2.0 1.0 1.0 36.1 37.4 96 -0.3 -0.3 2.7 2.8 0.9 0.9 44.2 46.1 120 -0.3 -0.5 3.4 3.6 0.9 0.9 52.0 53.8 144 -0.4 -0.5 4.2 4.4 0.9 0.8 58.6 60.5 168 -0.5 -0.5 4.9 5.2 0.8 0.8 63.7 66.7 192 -0.5 -0.7 5.5 5.8 0.8 0.8 67.7 70.7 216 -0.7 -0.8 5.9 6.2 0.7 0.7 70.8 73.8 240 -0.7 -0.9 6.3 6.5 0.7 0.7 72.9 76.0 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.6 0.1 6.7 6.8 1.0 1.0 15.5 15.6 48 1.1 0.2 12.5 12.6 1.0 1.0 23.4 23.6 72 2.1 1.6 20.6 20.4 1.0 1.0 32.1 32.2 96 2.5 2.4 30.4 31.1 0.9 0.9 41.0 41.5 120 2.9 2.1 40.1 42.1 0.9 0.9 49.1 50.0 144 3.5 2.5 50.1 52.0 0.9 0.8 56.1 57.1 168 3.5 2.9 59.0 62.0 0.8 0.8 62.1 63.3 192 3.4 2.5 67.3 70.0 0.8 0.8 66.8 68.4 216 3.1 1.9 73.0 76.1 0.8 0.7 69.7 71.5 240 3.2 1.6 78.0 79.7 0.7 0.7 72.6 74.1 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.9 3.2 10.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 13.8 14.1 48 7.0 6.0 19.3 19.1 1.0 1.0 22.1 22.4 72 9.8 9.3 31.1 30.9 1.0 1.0 30.5 30.8 96 11.6 11.4 44.6 46.0 0.9 0.9 39.0 39.5 120 13.0 12.4 58.4 61.0 0.9 0.9 46.7 47.6 144 14.4 13.6 72.6 75.0 0.9 0.8 53.4 54.2 168 15.0 14.6 85.2 89.9 0.8 0.8 58.8 60.3 192 15.8 15.1 96.9 101.7 0.8 0.8 62.9 64.9 216 13.7 12.5 105.2 109.6 0.7 0.7 65.8 67.7 240 13.0 11.8 113.0 115.7 0.7 0.7 68.7 69.9 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 72 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.9 120 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.8 144 0.4 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.8 0.8 168 0.4 0.4 2.6 2.7 0.8 0.8 192 0.5 0.5 2.9 3.0 0.8 0.7 216 0.4 0.4 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 240 0.4 0.4 3.2 3.3 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 72 0.3 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.8 0.8 120 0.3 0.3 2.6 2.7 0.8 0.8 144 0.2 0.3 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.8 168 0.3 0.3 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 192 0.2 0.3 3.3 3.4 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.1 3.4 3.5 0.7 0.7 240 0.0 0.1 3.5 3.6 0.7 0.7 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.2 -0.2 2.9 2.9 48 -0.4 -0.4 4.2 4.2 72 -0.5 -0.5 5.6 5.6 96 -0.6 -0.7 7.1 7.2 120 -0.8 -0.8 8.5 8.7 144 -0.9 -0.9 9.8 10.0 168 -1.1 -1.0 11.0 11.2 192 -1.1 -1.1 11.8 12.1 216 -1.2 -1.1 12.3 12.8 240 -1.2 -1.1 12.9 13.2 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (90N-20N) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.3 -0.3 4.4 4.5 48 -0.6 -0.6 6.6 6.7 72 -0.8 -0.8 8.9 9.0 96 -0.9 -0.9 11.4 11.5 120 -1.1 -1.0 13.6 13.9 144 -1.2 -1.1 15.8 16.1 168 -1.2 -1.1 17.4 18.0 192 -1.3 -1.2 18.8 19.5 216 -1.3 -1.2 19.8 20.4 240 -1.3 -1.2 20.8 21.1 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.5 -0.5 4.1 3.8 0.9 0.9 32.1 31.2 48 -1.0 -0.8 5.8 5.5 0.9 0.9 38.6 38.1 72 -2.1 -1.9 7.3 7.1 0.9 0.9 42.2 41.8 96 -2.6 -2.4 8.4 8.4 0.8 0.8 45.2 44.7 120 -2.8 -2.7 9.6 9.5 0.8 0.8 47.9 47.4 144 -3.2 -3.0 10.8 10.4 0.8 0.8 50.5 50.0 168 -3.1 -2.9 11.6 11.3 0.8 0.8 52.8 52.4 192 -3.2 -3.0 12.6 11.9 0.7 0.7 54.6 54.5 216 -3.6 -3.5 13.5 13.0 0.7 0.7 59.3 59.2 240 -3.7 -3.9 14.4 14.0 0.7 0.7 61.2 61.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.1 1.9 5.5 5.5 0.9 0.9 31.4 31.4 48 3.0 3.3 7.8 7.9 0.9 0.9 38.1 38.1 72 2.6 3.3 9.5 9.6 0.9 0.9 42.6 42.5 96 2.7 3.4 11.5 11.3 0.9 0.9 46.6 46.4 120 2.6 3.4 13.7 13.3 0.9 0.9 50.5 50.6 144 2.2 3.3 15.7 15.1 0.9 0.9 53.7 53.8 168 2.2 3.5 17.9 17.6 0.8 0.8 56.9 57.3 192 2.3 3.3 20.1 19.7 0.8 0.8 59.8 60.2 216 0.7 1.4 21.6 21.2 0.8 0.8 63.3 63.4 240 -0.3 0.5 23.3 22.7 0.7 0.8 65.9 65.5 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 48 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 72 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 96 -0.1 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 120 -0.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 144 -0.1 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 168 -0.1 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 192 -0.1 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.7 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 48 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 72 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 96 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 120 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 144 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 168 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 192 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 216 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 240 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.8 48 0.0 -0.1 2.5 2.4 72 -0.1 -0.1 3.0 2.9 96 -0.2 -0.2 3.4 3.3 120 -0.2 -0.3 3.7 3.6 144 -0.3 -0.3 4.1 4.0 168 -0.3 -0.4 4.4 4.3 192 -0.3 -0.4 4.7 4.6 216 -0.3 -0.3 5.0 4.9 240 -0.3 -0.3 5.2 5.1 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20N-20S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.5 -0.5 4.2 4.2 48 -0.8 -0.9 5.5 5.5 72 -1.0 -1.0 6.4 6.4 96 -1.1 -1.1 7.3 7.3 120 -1.2 -1.2 8.2 8.2 144 -1.2 -1.2 9.0 9.0 168 -1.3 -1.4 9.6 9.7 192 -1.4 -1.5 10.3 10.4 216 -1.4 -1.4 11.0 11.1 240 -1.3 -1.4 11.8 11.8 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- MEAN-SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD (HPA) (HPA) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.0 19.1 18.8 48 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.5 1.0 1.0 27.6 27.2 72 0.2 0.2 3.7 3.7 1.0 1.0 35.6 35.8 96 0.3 0.3 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.9 43.6 44.2 120 0.4 0.5 6.7 6.8 0.9 0.9 51.7 52.3 144 0.5 0.6 8.3 8.1 0.8 0.8 59.1 58.5 168 0.6 0.6 9.6 9.6 0.8 0.8 63.8 64.4 192 0.6 0.7 10.6 10.8 0.8 0.7 67.3 68.9 216 0.7 0.9 11.6 11.5 0.7 0.7 71.1 72.2 240 0.7 1.0 12.4 12.1 0.7 0.7 74.4 73.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.8 -0.4 11.0 10.6 1.0 1.0 12.9 12.9 48 -1.6 -0.8 19.6 19.7 1.0 1.0 20.1 20.0 72 -1.3 -1.1 30.3 31.6 1.0 1.0 26.8 27.3 96 -1.2 -1.0 44.9 47.0 0.9 0.9 34.0 34.7 120 -1.4 -0.3 62.1 64.4 0.9 0.9 41.4 42.0 144 -1.9 -0.6 80.3 80.2 0.9 0.9 48.1 48.4 168 -2.2 -1.3 95.3 97.0 0.8 0.8 52.9 53.8 192 -2.2 -1.3 107.2 110.8 0.8 0.8 56.7 58.3 216 -1.7 -0.8 120.9 120.5 0.7 0.7 60.8 61.4 240 -2.4 -1.1 131.4 129.2 0.7 0.7 64.1 63.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION S1 SCORE PERIOD ( M ) ( M ) -------------- -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.5 2.9 13.1 13.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 10.0 48 4.2 5.3 24.1 24.5 1.0 1.0 15.5 15.5 72 5.3 6.0 37.7 39.7 1.0 1.0 21.2 21.7 96 5.6 6.6 56.0 58.9 1.0 0.9 27.6 28.3 120 5.0 7.1 78.6 81.0 0.9 0.9 34.3 34.9 144 4.2 6.4 103.0 102.4 0.9 0.9 40.8 41.0 168 3.5 4.9 124.5 125.7 0.8 0.8 45.6 46.4 192 2.3 4.1 141.0 144.7 0.8 0.8 49.6 50.8 216 0.6 2.5 157.3 159.6 0.7 0.7 53.0 54.0 240 -1.3 1.5 171.9 171.1 0.7 0.7 56.2 56.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 48 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 72 0.2 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 96 0.2 0.2 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.2 0.2 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.9 144 0.2 0.2 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.8 0.8 0.8 192 0.1 0.1 4.1 4.2 0.7 0.7 216 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.5 0.7 0.7 240 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.7 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE CORRELATION PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 48 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 72 0.1 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.9 96 0.1 0.2 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 120 0.1 0.2 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.8 144 0.1 0.1 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.8 168 0.1 0.1 3.3 3.3 0.7 0.7 192 0.0 0.1 3.5 3.6 0.7 0.7 216 -0.1 0.0 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.7 240 -0.2 -0.1 3.9 3.9 0.6 0.6 # ** NCEP/USA GFS ** TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 48 0.0 0.0 5.9 5.9 72 -0.1 0.0 7.7 7.8 96 -0.2 -0.1 9.6 10.0 120 -0.3 -0.2 11.9 12.1 144 -0.3 -0.3 14.0 13.9 168 -0.3 -0.4 15.4 15.7 192 -0.4 -0.4 16.6 17.1 216 -0.5 -0.5 17.8 18.0 240 -0.6 -0.5 19.0 18.7 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSES (20S-90S) ----------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.1 0.0 4.7 4.7 48 -0.1 -0.1 7.1 7.1 72 -0.3 -0.3 9.6 9.8 96 -0.5 -0.4 12.3 12.9 120 -0.5 -0.5 15.5 15.7 144 -0.5 -0.6 18.8 18.7 168 -0.6 -0.6 21.2 21.6 192 -0.6 -0.5 23.3 23.9 216 -0.8 -0.6 25.0 25.7 240 -0.8 -0.6 26.7 26.8 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.82 -2.94 8.01 8.71 48 -4.70 -5.06 10.49 11.97 72 -4.47 -4.01 14.56 15.05 96 -4.93 -4.10 19.95 20.81 120 -4.75 -5.41 25.96 28.24 144 -5.54 -4.68 32.10 34.02 168 -8.97 -6.37 38.42 40.01 192 -7.38 -3.39 43.82 43.07 216 -8.26 -7.96 45.67 47.83 240 -6.16 -7.12 47.60 49.96 TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -1.66 8.95 8.82 48 -1.53 -3.07 12.34 12.83 72 -0.57 -1.27 19.03 18.87 96 -0.80 -0.82 27.01 27.99 120 0.21 -3.20 35.59 37.51 144 -0.16 -1.34 44.44 48.20 168 -2.53 -1.38 54.99 57.91 192 -2.38 1.17 63.55 65.42 216 -0.36 -4.17 67.63 70.91 240 2.38 -2.52 73.31 75.65 TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 8.06 7.53 15.01 14.35 48 10.01 8.13 22.16 21.32 72 13.23 11.51 34.02 32.13 96 14.20 13.41 46.97 46.92 120 16.05 13.45 59.56 60.60 144 17.84 14.77 74.43 76.76 168 16.27 16.33 87.57 93.07 192 17.76 20.19 100.91 106.57 216 16.29 12.43 108.25 111.17 240 17.17 13.17 117.95 118.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.01 1.40 1.29 48 0.20 0.01 1.62 1.49 72 0.24 0.08 1.86 1.74 96 0.28 0.14 2.25 2.20 120 0.35 0.08 2.57 2.60 144 0.27 0.00 2.94 3.11 168 0.35 0.12 3.55 3.56 192 0.31 0.17 3.95 3.97 216 0.77 0.15 4.24 4.11 240 0.93 0.14 4.50 4.48 TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.23 0.87 0.89 48 0.27 0.30 1.09 1.15 72 0.36 0.36 1.41 1.44 96 0.38 0.40 1.76 1.74 120 0.43 0.47 2.06 2.12 144 0.48 0.49 2.39 2.46 168 0.48 0.50 2.70 2.76 192 0.51 0.52 2.99 3.07 216 0.50 0.49 3.09 3.21 240 0.44 0.51 3.38 3.38 TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.75 0.76 1.29 1.32 48 0.84 0.85 1.60 1.61 72 0.94 0.89 1.94 1.90 96 1.00 0.93 2.18 2.17 120 0.98 0.92 2.44 2.40 144 1.09 0.99 2.67 2.66 168 1.16 1.11 2.92 2.82 192 1.13 1.19 2.98 3.08 216 0.95 0.93 3.00 3.05 240 0.95 0.95 3.11 3.13 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.67 3.82 4.12 48 -0.36 -0.75 4.47 4.77 72 -0.36 -0.92 5.25 5.51 96 -0.48 -0.96 6.00 6.63 120 -0.51 -0.84 7.14 7.53 144 -0.56 -0.92 8.09 8.61 168 -0.60 -1.02 8.73 9.20 192 -0.76 -1.11 9.28 9.90 216 -0.86 -1.42 9.49 10.10 240 -1.24 -1.26 9.82 10.20 TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.52 4.19 4.30 48 -0.58 -0.57 5.07 5.22 72 -0.76 -0.76 6.32 6.41 96 -0.87 -0.91 7.56 8.31 120 -1.03 -1.09 8.95 9.47 144 -1.07 -1.13 10.17 10.94 168 -0.97 -1.19 11.74 12.08 192 -1.19 -1.27 12.47 13.04 216 -1.55 -1.44 13.05 13.67 240 -1.70 -1.38 13.63 14.32 TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.75 6.11 6.13 48 -0.92 -1.17 8.10 8.15 72 -1.16 -1.40 10.43 10.55 96 -1.31 -1.48 12.80 13.07 120 -1.25 -1.34 15.60 15.58 144 -1.15 -1.25 17.90 18.14 168 -0.95 -0.96 19.80 20.22 192 -1.48 -0.84 21.36 21.78 216 -1.66 -1.40 22.69 22.34 240 -1.31 -1.49 23.44 23.12 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.1 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.87 -3.21 7.86 7.83 48 -3.97 -3.41 10.71 10.19 72 -4.76 -1.31 14.98 12.93 96 -5.24 -2.59 19.73 19.35 120 -5.26 -2.05 25.88 26.76 144 -0.93 -0.68 31.31 33.75 168 4.01 7.25 38.48 42.20 192 5.26 5.32 44.37 46.75 216 9.65 4.59 50.44 52.43 240 10.14 5.75 54.22 51.76 TABLE 5.2 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.75 10.13 9.44 48 -0.49 0.77 13.87 12.66 72 -0.95 3.33 19.41 19.11 96 -0.77 1.80 27.25 27.42 120 -3.67 1.32 37.98 39.94 144 -1.61 3.39 45.57 52.17 168 3.32 10.41 58.34 64.61 192 8.97 11.36 72.35 74.35 216 18.21 11.81 82.07 79.28 240 22.77 15.25 88.16 88.44 TABLE 5.3 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 7.30 7.62 14.75 14.08 48 11.54 13.70 22.47 22.15 72 12.57 17.98 31.46 32.73 96 13.72 16.41 44.43 44.78 120 9.79 15.68 61.40 63.84 144 8.65 17.80 71.62 82.28 168 13.50 25.03 90.37 102.37 192 23.50 28.87 115.75 118.62 216 39.03 27.85 124.86 126.42 240 41.28 30.74 132.75 131.89 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.4 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.27 1.09 1.10 48 0.11 0.35 1.28 1.31 72 0.06 0.35 1.49 1.59 96 -0.03 0.30 1.89 1.97 120 -0.13 0.22 2.34 2.35 144 -0.23 0.23 2.69 2.87 168 -0.20 0.26 3.27 3.32 192 -0.08 0.32 3.76 3.81 216 0.25 0.63 4.10 4.38 240 0.66 0.81 4.14 4.44 TABLE 5.5 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.27 0.82 0.79 48 0.41 0.45 1.06 1.01 72 0.48 0.52 1.37 1.31 96 0.44 0.53 1.81 1.66 120 0.41 0.45 2.17 2.19 144 0.19 0.43 2.41 2.57 168 0.34 0.47 2.85 2.99 192 0.51 0.65 3.39 3.38 216 0.77 0.63 3.48 3.54 240 0.89 0.73 3.46 3.50 TABLE 5.6 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.48 1.23 1.19 48 0.58 0.55 1.58 1.56 72 0.55 0.54 1.97 1.96 96 0.58 0.55 2.37 2.33 120 0.60 0.51 2.68 2.83 144 0.58 0.50 2.94 3.07 168 0.50 0.43 3.17 3.23 192 0.46 0.53 3.35 3.35 216 0.33 0.38 3.43 3.48 240 0.22 0.12 3.46 3.54 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 5.7 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.53 3.67 3.48 48 -0.65 -0.66 4.32 3.98 72 -0.77 -0.83 5.01 4.66 96 -0.83 -0.90 5.86 5.51 120 -1.08 -1.05 6.64 6.58 144 -1.16 -1.27 7.47 7.30 168 -1.38 -1.64 8.30 8.36 192 -1.53 -1.44 8.82 8.68 216 -1.97 -1.52 9.12 8.87 240 -2.02 -1.68 9.32 8.98 TABLE 5.8 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.51 3.84 3.70 48 -0.66 -0.81 4.71 4.61 72 -0.92 -0.88 5.81 5.62 96 -1.00 -1.17 7.30 6.83 120 -1.03 -1.35 8.64 8.92 144 -1.39 -1.35 9.85 10.51 168 -1.54 -1.82 11.70 12.36 192 -1.58 -1.62 13.35 13.60 216 -1.87 -1.87 13.60 14.13 240 -2.39 -2.39 13.86 14.76 TABLE 5.9 EUROPE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.44 5.15 4.81 48 -0.87 -0.80 6.89 6.20 72 -1.28 -0.83 8.66 8.28 96 -1.26 -1.18 11.63 11.02 120 -1.34 -1.54 14.17 14.73 144 -1.51 -1.25 16.39 17.30 168 -1.50 -1.44 19.11 20.39 192 -1.55 -1.53 21.97 22.84 216 -2.08 -1.91 22.16 23.34 240 -3.17 -2.48 22.29 23.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.46 -3.36 9.38 9.21 48 -4.52 -4.24 12.59 12.59 72 -2.50 -2.33 15.51 15.51 96 -3.14 -1.62 20.32 20.39 120 -5.13 -3.99 24.14 26.19 144 -8.52 -6.97 29.60 30.56 168 -12.58 -10.49 33.56 34.94 192 -14.78 -12.14 38.14 37.23 216 -12.49 -12.28 40.32 40.11 240 -14.39 -11.27 40.65 41.86 TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 0.01 13.13 12.52 48 1.21 1.79 16.93 16.17 72 5.61 6.15 22.24 21.85 96 6.72 8.47 29.11 29.37 120 7.02 7.76 34.72 37.44 144 4.86 6.07 40.57 42.22 168 1.46 3.68 44.94 47.40 192 0.29 4.11 51.37 50.80 216 2.35 4.67 55.50 55.46 240 2.59 6.13 59.25 59.73 TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.13 2.78 19.39 19.25 48 7.39 8.00 26.44 26.45 72 13.30 14.29 36.05 35.80 96 15.70 18.28 45.66 46.48 120 15.80 18.18 55.53 59.16 144 14.20 15.86 64.05 66.75 168 11.12 13.50 68.13 73.19 192 11.19 16.07 76.96 78.33 216 14.18 16.40 84.05 85.56 240 16.40 18.52 92.86 93.62 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.37 1.52 1.62 48 0.55 0.69 1.81 2.02 72 0.80 0.93 2.15 2.39 96 0.98 1.13 2.51 2.86 120 1.16 1.31 3.02 3.34 144 1.31 1.44 3.39 3.84 168 1.33 1.56 3.80 4.12 192 1.43 1.63 4.12 4.29 216 1.58 1.91 4.36 4.73 240 1.58 1.86 4.53 4.99 TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.12 0.99 0.99 48 0.28 0.22 1.19 1.22 72 0.38 0.30 1.46 1.44 96 0.41 0.36 1.70 1.69 120 0.45 0.37 1.92 1.95 144 0.48 0.39 2.15 2.14 168 0.50 0.46 2.28 2.31 192 0.58 0.59 2.48 2.43 216 0.60 0.59 2.58 2.60 240 0.70 0.59 2.82 2.84 TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.40 1.41 1.37 48 0.51 0.62 1.76 1.76 72 0.62 0.74 2.00 2.01 96 0.62 0.83 2.26 2.23 120 0.62 0.84 2.44 2.47 144 0.63 0.79 2.58 2.54 168 0.58 0.80 2.63 2.72 192 0.67 0.84 2.86 2.86 216 0.59 0.74 2.85 2.87 240 0.67 0.74 3.01 3.01 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.54 3.84 4.02 48 -0.69 -0.50 4.53 4.60 72 -0.74 -0.57 5.35 5.41 96 -0.84 -0.53 6.11 6.17 120 -0.84 -0.54 6.95 6.98 144 -0.84 -0.63 7.50 7.48 168 -0.86 -0.52 7.61 7.98 192 -0.73 -0.50 8.12 8.11 216 -0.81 -0.42 8.27 8.34 240 -0.55 -0.33 8.59 8.59 TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.63 4.35 4.57 48 -1.07 -0.87 5.42 5.64 72 -1.29 -1.05 6.52 6.80 96 -1.39 -1.24 7.81 7.96 120 -1.49 -1.15 8.76 9.07 144 -1.55 -1.29 9.73 9.96 168 -1.62 -1.43 10.23 10.70 192 -1.66 -1.43 11.06 11.08 216 -1.84 -1.53 11.17 11.58 240 -1.80 -1.46 11.30 12.12 TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.56 6.79 7.24 48 -0.89 -0.93 9.14 9.44 72 -1.16 -1.39 10.72 11.27 96 -1.41 -1.63 12.82 12.86 120 -1.69 -1.77 14.24 15.21 144 -1.60 -1.70 16.00 16.77 168 -1.70 -2.11 16.78 17.93 192 -1.91 -2.19 17.83 18.29 216 -2.12 -2.37 18.50 19.21 240 -2.32 -2.61 19.81 20.22 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.53 -4.85 8.25 8.38 48 -2.69 -2.31 9.53 10.84 72 1.02 0.60 13.46 14.91 96 2.41 4.22 18.34 22.01 120 3.94 7.57 23.46 29.55 144 5.99 12.13 31.12 39.70 168 8.23 10.73 35.95 47.53 192 12.58 12.50 42.34 50.14 216 12.12 15.24 52.41 59.58 240 11.21 22.26 57.42 62.69 TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.22 -7.61 11.98 12.43 48 -6.32 -5.23 14.59 15.76 72 -3.29 -3.34 19.11 19.81 96 -2.87 -0.86 25.85 30.91 120 -1.84 2.61 35.03 39.82 144 1.56 8.43 44.35 54.06 168 2.34 9.41 53.18 64.80 192 5.27 8.08 58.71 70.06 216 7.68 12.23 67.08 80.13 240 9.03 23.31 78.50 85.13 TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.49 -3.69 11.97 14.65 48 -0.36 -0.37 16.97 18.18 72 0.25 -0.02 24.70 28.49 96 -1.29 4.40 35.95 43.14 120 -2.58 2.63 47.43 54.90 144 0.97 9.03 59.37 69.70 168 0.60 8.49 68.86 83.07 192 1.63 3.82 79.74 94.63 216 1.25 6.66 91.39 108.22 240 4.91 19.42 109.94 118.72 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.19 1.18 1.25 48 -0.03 0.12 1.37 1.37 72 -0.18 -0.06 1.54 1.45 96 -0.23 -0.13 1.79 1.78 120 -0.27 -0.25 2.08 2.14 144 -0.21 -0.12 2.37 2.37 168 -0.23 0.02 2.51 2.56 192 -0.14 -0.06 2.60 2.74 216 -0.16 -0.12 2.76 2.98 240 -0.07 0.05 3.12 3.17 TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.07 0.94 0.91 48 0.19 0.13 1.16 1.12 72 0.16 0.09 1.38 1.32 96 0.13 0.03 1.75 1.72 120 0.08 -0.04 2.07 2.07 144 0.11 0.17 2.44 2.27 168 0.02 0.14 2.63 2.63 192 0.02 -0.13 2.79 3.08 216 0.11 0.03 3.07 3.31 240 0.11 0.08 3.50 3.50 TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.24 1.09 1.14 48 0.31 0.23 1.35 1.38 72 0.16 0.17 1.68 1.73 96 -0.04 0.05 2.07 2.17 120 -0.15 -0.09 2.38 2.47 144 -0.22 -0.25 2.78 2.92 168 -0.27 -0.47 3.06 3.14 192 -0.51 -0.52 3.54 3.38 216 -0.84 -0.76 3.85 3.86 240 -0.86 -0.84 3.97 3.96 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.10 3.64 3.58 48 -0.30 -0.28 4.16 4.35 72 -0.33 -0.35 5.13 5.14 96 -0.41 -0.33 5.86 6.12 120 -0.25 -0.26 6.93 7.06 144 -0.22 -0.32 7.92 7.76 168 -0.27 -0.48 8.87 9.06 192 -0.72 -1.04 9.47 10.02 216 -0.84 -1.00 10.44 10.61 240 -0.63 -1.25 11.11 11.13 TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.43 4.40 4.25 48 -0.74 -0.69 5.39 5.17 72 -1.05 -0.59 6.47 6.58 96 -1.16 -0.78 7.54 7.98 120 -1.05 -0.58 9.31 10.14 144 -1.34 -0.64 10.51 11.14 168 -1.42 -1.28 11.23 12.37 192 -1.88 -1.90 12.55 13.27 216 -2.51 -1.69 13.77 14.03 240 -2.30 -1.91 15.38 14.67 TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/ NEW Z VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.50 5.20 5.22 48 -1.08 -0.71 6.91 6.87 72 -1.61 -0.85 8.41 8.37 96 -1.62 -1.31 10.23 10.50 120 -1.81 -0.84 12.39 12.36 144 -2.01 -1.22 14.38 14.14 168 -2.13 -1.34 15.57 16.57 192 -3.25 -1.89 18.34 18.17 216 -3.73 -2.85 20.67 20.09 240 -3.36 -2.24 22.46 21.18 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.90 -3.97 10.52 9.98 48 -3.67 -2.90 10.62 10.31 72 -3.82 -2.79 11.25 10.83 96 -3.30 -2.68 11.99 11.49 120 -3.03 -2.76 12.71 12.43 144 -3.78 -3.50 13.92 13.27 168 -3.97 -4.10 14.52 14.41 192 -3.93 -4.54 15.00 14.81 216 -4.99 -5.94 16.19 15.67 240 -4.58 -6.14 17.25 16.35 TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.51 -5.73 13.50 12.14 48 -5.54 -4.67 13.69 12.02 72 -5.67 -4.45 14.44 12.41 96 -5.19 -3.67 14.84 12.77 120 -4.89 -3.42 15.34 13.51 144 -5.79 -4.42 16.29 14.41 168 -6.35 -4.86 17.04 15.34 192 -6.52 -5.31 17.66 15.84 216 -8.04 -7.26 18.40 16.86 240 -7.67 -7.47 19.37 17.40 TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.39 -3.95 14.86 13.95 48 -1.10 -1.22 15.26 14.16 72 -0.78 0.20 15.85 14.40 96 -0.21 1.20 16.59 15.13 120 -0.27 1.59 18.06 16.71 144 -1.77 0.32 19.19 17.28 168 -2.91 -0.06 20.68 19.18 192 -3.61 -0.78 23.19 20.88 216 -6.62 -4.73 24.03 22.22 240 -7.79 -5.72 24.41 23.15 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.11 1.07 1.13 48 -0.12 -0.16 1.12 1.16 72 -0.15 -0.19 1.15 1.20 96 -0.18 -0.20 1.21 1.21 120 -0.22 -0.20 1.26 1.25 144 -0.22 -0.20 1.33 1.32 168 -0.21 -0.21 1.40 1.35 192 -0.21 -0.23 1.47 1.37 216 -0.29 -0.28 1.52 1.44 240 -0.33 -0.36 1.50 1.49 TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 0.89 0.88 48 -0.10 -0.06 0.93 0.94 72 -0.09 -0.05 1.00 0.99 96 -0.09 -0.01 1.02 1.02 120 -0.10 0.01 1.07 1.05 144 -0.13 0.00 1.14 1.11 168 -0.17 0.01 1.19 1.16 192 -0.19 0.00 1.28 1.21 216 -0.20 0.01 1.27 1.27 240 -0.23 -0.02 1.36 1.28 TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.53 0.45 0.92 0.86 48 0.60 0.54 1.02 0.99 72 0.63 0.59 1.09 1.05 96 0.63 0.61 1.14 1.13 120 0.61 0.60 1.19 1.16 144 0.57 0.59 1.21 1.19 168 0.56 0.56 1.26 1.25 192 0.56 0.55 1.34 1.29 216 0.39 0.31 1.33 1.24 240 0.29 0.30 1.33 1.27 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.73 3.67 3.63 48 -0.64 -0.75 3.99 3.98 72 -0.67 -0.75 4.31 4.39 96 -0.73 -0.76 4.63 4.57 120 -0.86 -0.92 4.98 4.88 144 -0.91 -1.12 5.30 5.16 168 -0.97 -1.18 5.61 5.47 192 -0.92 -1.21 5.87 5.78 216 -0.78 -1.16 6.15 6.13 240 -0.68 -1.03 6.27 6.27 TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.76 4.17 4.13 48 -0.74 -0.85 4.63 4.52 72 -0.75 -0.85 4.99 5.02 96 -0.81 -0.93 5.46 5.37 120 -0.89 -1.10 5.75 5.71 144 -1.06 -1.24 6.14 5.98 168 -1.00 -1.28 6.37 6.38 192 -1.10 -1.30 6.64 6.72 216 -1.20 -1.45 6.82 7.17 240 -1.14 -1.28 7.32 7.34 TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -0.87 5.69 5.47 48 -1.28 -1.21 6.44 6.35 72 -1.24 -1.28 7.20 7.02 96 -1.34 -1.34 7.76 7.53 120 -1.38 -1.43 8.32 8.34 144 -1.46 -1.49 8.72 8.88 168 -1.59 -1.68 9.36 9.41 192 -1.71 -1.80 10.03 10.07 216 -1.61 -1.80 10.41 10.70 240 -1.46 -1.58 11.29 11.41 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.1 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.80 -3.02 8.71 8.93 48 -3.72 -3.79 11.96 12.27 72 -3.60 -2.68 16.45 16.28 96 -3.90 -2.98 22.39 23.06 120 -3.81 -3.37 28.39 31.15 144 -3.30 -2.28 35.77 37.92 168 -2.84 -0.72 42.58 45.93 192 -2.99 -1.49 48.72 49.76 216 -0.69 -2.72 51.22 53.89 240 -1.67 -2.72 54.71 55.80 TABLE 9.2 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.97 11.26 10.80 48 -0.10 -0.51 15.61 15.14 72 0.98 1.48 22.72 22.41 96 1.15 1.78 31.76 32.58 120 1.50 1.48 42.21 44.75 144 1.31 2.73 52.12 56.07 168 2.46 3.96 62.31 67.29 192 3.06 5.16 73.55 75.62 216 6.98 3.77 78.40 81.85 240 7.75 4.47 85.11 85.01 TABLE 9.3 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 6.29 5.88 16.57 15.90 48 9.30 9.15 24.21 23.49 72 12.19 12.75 35.34 34.91 96 12.87 14.16 48.95 50.48 120 13.59 14.30 64.24 66.70 144 13.69 15.60 77.92 83.12 168 15.10 18.39 92.90 99.71 192 17.85 20.51 109.52 113.21 216 19.70 15.57 116.68 121.66 240 19.87 15.45 127.12 126.30 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.4 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.14 1.28 1.29 48 0.21 0.23 1.53 1.55 72 0.26 0.32 1.80 1.85 96 0.31 0.36 2.25 2.28 120 0.34 0.35 2.71 2.82 144 0.30 0.35 3.19 3.37 168 0.31 0.42 3.72 3.81 192 0.43 0.49 4.03 4.13 216 0.66 0.59 4.35 4.47 240 0.82 0.68 4.49 4.67 TABLE 9.5 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.21 0.89 0.89 48 0.29 0.30 1.14 1.14 72 0.37 0.37 1.47 1.48 96 0.41 0.42 1.87 1.86 120 0.43 0.45 2.21 2.30 144 0.41 0.47 2.53 2.61 168 0.43 0.49 2.85 2.96 192 0.49 0.58 3.23 3.30 216 0.56 0.50 3.35 3.47 240 0.55 0.51 3.57 3.58 TABLE 9.6 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.47 0.47 1.30 1.29 48 0.53 0.57 1.68 1.67 72 0.54 0.57 2.07 2.08 96 0.52 0.55 2.46 2.48 120 0.51 0.52 2.82 2.87 144 0.48 0.44 3.13 3.15 168 0.44 0.46 3.31 3.35 192 0.45 0.50 3.53 3.52 216 0.25 0.32 3.52 3.63 240 0.19 0.20 3.63 3.65 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 9.7 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.64 3.75 3.81 48 -0.60 -0.68 4.47 4.53 72 -0.67 -0.78 5.24 5.32 96 -0.77 -0.88 6.22 6.36 120 -0.83 -0.96 7.19 7.37 144 -0.97 -1.08 8.12 8.19 168 -1.03 -1.23 8.70 8.91 192 -1.10 -1.17 9.17 9.49 216 -1.36 -1.33 9.33 9.72 240 -1.36 -1.33 9.56 9.93 TABLE 9.8 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.50 4.12 4.14 48 -0.71 -0.71 5.14 5.21 72 -0.86 -0.81 6.32 6.50 96 -0.96 -1.02 7.90 8.14 120 -1.13 -1.20 9.27 9.74 144 -1.32 -1.25 10.61 11.23 168 -1.35 -1.49 11.92 12.53 192 -1.43 -1.57 13.00 13.48 216 -1.81 -1.64 13.34 13.87 240 -1.93 -1.69 13.74 14.43 TABLE 9.9 NORTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.55 5.57 5.75 48 -0.84 -0.83 7.64 7.70 72 -1.04 -1.08 9.81 10.11 96 -1.17 -1.24 12.46 12.56 120 -1.26 -1.27 15.28 15.66 144 -1.35 -1.17 17.17 18.02 168 -1.33 -1.28 19.26 20.16 192 -1.47 -1.40 21.10 21.88 216 -1.75 -1.65 21.95 22.39 240 -2.05 -1.90 22.44 22.79 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.1 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.60 -3.49 9.25 11.33 48 -2.04 -2.29 11.85 14.46 72 0.33 -1.19 17.54 20.08 96 1.32 -0.41 24.09 28.24 120 3.36 2.94 31.75 36.32 144 4.82 6.31 39.12 45.92 168 5.88 3.63 48.43 56.08 192 7.43 6.24 53.11 57.37 216 8.85 7.94 60.92 65.08 240 10.89 11.19 65.70 67.90 TABLE 10.2 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.73 -3.75 12.51 13.24 48 -3.98 -2.68 17.55 18.36 72 -1.95 -2.03 24.06 27.70 96 -1.71 -0.74 33.84 39.08 120 -0.73 1.92 43.77 50.16 144 2.52 8.18 54.16 64.49 168 2.64 5.24 68.43 75.68 192 5.34 7.36 74.03 85.29 216 6.90 10.10 83.40 96.07 240 9.15 12.64 91.56 96.66 TABLE 10.3 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (M) (M) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 0.82 14.66 16.36 48 1.91 5.49 20.84 23.32 72 3.31 7.51 31.06 35.85 96 3.79 8.95 45.77 51.09 120 2.26 11.55 59.13 65.86 144 6.11 17.96 72.50 83.16 168 6.06 16.91 91.75 99.10 192 8.97 17.95 103.01 117.16 216 6.84 20.91 113.84 129.81 240 8.33 22.12 127.42 129.55 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.4 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.15 1.38 1.51 48 -0.05 0.13 1.61 1.73 72 -0.13 0.04 1.87 1.93 96 -0.17 -0.02 2.16 2.24 120 -0.26 0.01 2.50 2.86 144 -0.21 -0.01 2.86 3.18 168 -0.21 0.02 3.29 3.50 192 -0.16 -0.04 3.45 4.02 216 -0.46 -0.26 3.82 4.38 240 -0.43 -0.34 4.09 4.56 TABLE 10.5 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.18 0.97 1.01 48 0.20 0.31 1.25 1.31 72 0.17 0.32 1.51 1.59 96 0.17 0.36 1.96 1.95 120 0.07 0.35 2.32 2.44 144 0.23 0.59 2.64 2.82 168 0.15 0.53 3.08 3.21 192 0.30 0.47 3.26 3.74 216 0.31 0.66 3.46 3.95 240 0.26 0.52 3.85 3.86 TABLE 10.6 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE PERIOD (K) (K) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.27 1.16 1.19 48 0.27 0.35 1.43 1.44 72 0.18 0.41 1.80 1.81 96 0.15 0.38 2.18 2.21 120 0.04 0.34 2.52 2.55 144 -0.04 0.18 2.88 2.83 168 0.00 0.30 3.19 3.02 192 -0.17 0.32 3.61 3.27 216 -0.53 0.18 3.84 3.66 240 -0.55 0.28 3.96 3.78 # ** NCEP/USA GFS MODEL ** TABLE 10.7 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.31 4.16 4.40 48 -0.34 -0.40 4.75 5.29 72 -0.37 -0.37 5.69 6.23 96 -0.43 -0.33 6.70 7.48 120 -0.36 -0.47 7.78 8.53 144 -0.42 -0.67 8.82 9.74 168 -0.54 -0.58 9.81 10.56 192 -0.63 -0.87 10.25 11.76 216 -1.16 -1.28 11.09 11.84 240 -1.31 -1.48 11.60 12.18 TABLE 10.8 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.37 4.77 5.02 48 -0.67 -0.43 5.99 6.38 72 -0.85 -0.42 7.33 8.01 96 -0.97 -0.60 8.84 9.61 120 -1.05 -0.86 10.45 11.55 144 -1.36 -1.32 11.99 12.88 168 -1.66 -1.13 13.26 14.78 192 -1.86 -1.74 14.50 15.63 216 -2.60 -1.82 15.49 16.75 240 -2.65 -2.32 16.39 16.82 TABLE 10.9 SOUTH HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES -------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (M/S) (M/S) (HOURS) 00 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 12 GMT -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.43 5.70 5.93 48 -0.74 -0.50 7.25 7.79 72 -1.11 -0.67 9.16 9.79 96 -1.17 -1.28 11.31 12.45 120 -1.46 -1.55 13.86 14.61 144 -1.73 -1.83 16.13 17.24 168 -2.30 -2.07 18.01 20.38 192 -2.93 -3.00 20.74 21.78 216 -3.96 -3.42 22.89 23.92 240 -3.88 -3.49 23.94 24.95